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Brown pelicans fly in front of the San Francisco skyline Aug 17, 2018.
Brown pelicans fly in front of the San Francisco skyline Aug 17, 2018.

The elevators worry earthquake engineering expert Keith Porter the most.

The San Francisco Bay Area could be struck by a massive earthquake. The city will be slammed with a force equal to hundreds of atomic bombs when it does.

Porter said the shaking will cause a power cut. People will be trapped between floors in elevators without backup power. The number of people trapped could be thousands at peak commute times.

The survivors of the initial earthquake will need the help of firefighters.

Rescuers won't come right away. The region has fire engines, but they could be overwhelmed by blazes.

There will be a shortage of running water. Cellphone service may not work at all. There will be more aftershocks.

The electricity could be off for weeks.

Porter said that people are dead in the elevators.

'Problems on the horizon'

The situation Porter described is a result of his work on the HayWired Scenario, a detailed look at the cascading calamities that will occur when a major earthquake strikes the Bay Area.

For now, the disaster is theoretical. The United States Geological Survey estimates that there will be a big earthquake in the region within three decades.

Researchers have prepared detailed scenarios in an attempt to prepare themselves for it being one of several West Coast disasters.

Scientists discover the Earth's inner core isn't liquid.

Is it fact? Checked. The Checking the Facts newsletter is a good place to find the real story.

The experts who worked on the projects are very confident that the West Coast could face disasters with the power to kill hundreds or thousands of people and change the lives of millions. There is more that can be done to keep individuals and society safe.

Anne Wein told USA TODAY that they were trying to have an earthquake without one. The HayWired earthquake scenario was co-leads by Wein, who has worked on several other similar projects.

Seismologists, engineers, emergency responders and social scientists are brought together in such disasters because they have little reason to work together.

It is difficult to make new relationships in a crisis.

Similar projects have turned out to be accurate.

Many of the consequences of a major Hurricane hitting New Orleans were foretold by the Hurricane Pam scenario.

The disaster scenario of The SPARS Pandemic was called afuturistic by the authors. The 89-page document was not intended to be a prediction of COVID-19.

The SPARS Pandemic imagined a future where a deadly novel coronaviruses would spread around the world, often without symptoms, as vaccine hesitancy kept experts from keeping people safe.

Monica Schoch-Spana told USA TODAY that the SPARS scenario was meant to give public health communicators a leg up.

In the same way that experts describe the HayWired earthquake, a global epidemic was thought of at the time of SPARS.

'It could happen tomorrow'

Disaster scenario researchers have different ways of describing apocalyptic futures.

Lucy Jones will often say that the probability of an earthquake is 100% if you give her enough time.

The underground forces that create earthquakes are too random and chaotic to be predicted. Researchers know a lot about what will happen when the earth shakes.

Porter said that earthquakes like HayWired are worth planning for. It could happen tomorrow.

Porter said they don't know when. It will happen.

Wein says that we are also due for a major West Coast disaster.

The type of earthquake described in HayWired occurs every 200 years. It has been more than 150 years since the last one.

It is difficult to say how Los Angeles will be affected by The Big One, a theoretical earthquake along the San Andreas fault. The Los Angeles area has a 1 in 3 chance of being struck by a magnitude 7.5 earthquake in the next 30 years, according to the United States Geological Survey.

A 2008 scenario said a 7.8 earthquake could cause over 2,000 deaths and $200 billion in economic losses. According to a post published by catastrophe modeling company Temblor, big earthquakes in Los Angeles will cause the soil to turn into a bowl of jelly.

A stretch of coast in Oregon and Washington state is capable of producing an earthquake much more powerful than the ones in California, according to a scenario. Parts of the coastline would suddenly drop 6 feet, shattering critical bridges, destroying communication cables and causing a tsunami.

Local leaders are considering projects that will give coastal residents a better chance of survival.

It could happen at any time according to the scenario.

West Coast residents have yet another disaster to prepare for, even though earthquake scenarios focus on major coastal cities.

Megastorms are one of the Big Ones in California. It warns of a statewide flood that will cause more than a million people to leave their homes.

Every few hundred years there are massive storms that dump rain on California. Around the time of the Civil War, weeks of rain turned portions of the state into an inland sea.

'Decades to rebuild'

Experts warn that the impacts of disasters on the West Coast will last for years or longer.

It takes decades to rebuild, according to Wein.

A big earthquake on the West Coast can also cause damage to buildings and roads.

It can be weeks or months without running water. Mass migrations away from ruined communities are what it is. There are thousands of uninhabitable homes.

Thousands of people are expected to die. There could be hundreds of thousands without shelter. The impacts will be feltsproportionately.

The homelessness crisis is the top issue in the Los Angeles mayoral race.

There is a wildfire burning near the California coastal highway.

Nnenia Campbell said that the next disaster is going to make inequalities worse in California. The William Averette Anderson Fund works to mitigate disasters for minority communities.

Campbell doesn't talk about natural disasters because there's nothing natural about how a major earthquake will affect vulnerable communities.

She said that redlining has led to many of the inequalities in our society. Humans can make decisions that will help the response to disasters.

Local leaders and emergency management planners need to make many of those choices. Investing in infrastructure programs will make homes in minority communities less vulnerable to earthquakes. Understanding how important a library is. Ensuring that all schools are built to survive a disaster. Even during an emergency, public spaces are open.

Campbell said that individuals can make a difference. In the event of an emergency, you can complete training to help your community. A mutual aid network is a group where community members help each other.

One of the best ways to prepare for a disaster is to know and care for your neighbors.

Jones said that if everyone only looks out for themselves in the next disaster, we are going to have social breakdown.

What you can do

You will want to make sure you and your family are safe before you can help others. Disaster preparedness precautions are inexpensive and can help in a wide range of emergency situations.

If you have access to electricity or water, be prepared to have it cut off.

You will want a flashlight and a way to charge your phone for electricity.

Wein said that after a major earthquake, cell service will be jammed immediately, but communications will likely come back online faster than other services. Don't call when trying to use your phone. Text messages are more reliable in a disaster.

To power your phone, you can buy a weather radio, flashlight, and hand-crank charge to keep it running.

Jones said that a cash reserve is good. Even if your credit card doesn't work for a while, you want to be able to buy things.

Experts said that preparing for earthquakes is important along the West Coast. Securing bookshelves can save lives. If you download an early warning app, you can protect yourself in the event of a big earthquake. Buying earthquake insurance can protect you. Taking part in a yearly drill can help remind you of the steps you can take to prepare.

Disaster experts are hesitant to rely on individuals to prepare themselves for disasters, even though there is more you can do.

Disaster scenario experts believe community members will need to look out for one another when the next disaster strikes, just as health experts have begged Americans to use masks and vaccines to help keep others safe during the Pandemic.

Jones said that telling people to prepare as if nobody is coming to help them is a self-fulfilling prophesy.

The real power in how prepared society will be for the next disaster is held by policymakers. Upgrading city plumbing is one of the problems to fix because many aging and brittle water pipes will break in a major earthquake, cutting off water to communities for weeks or months.

Porter said to shake it and it would break.

Even stricter building codes, emergency water supply systems for firefighters, and retrofitting elevators with emergency power are some of the things that need to be done to get ready for a big earthquake.

When the big San Francisco earthquake comes, the change in the elevator could prevent thousands of people from being trapped.

A lot of that suffering can be avoided.

California's Big One is just one West Coast disaster worth preparing for.

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