An Asteroid Predicted to Hit Earth in 2023 Has Turned Out to Be Safe

The discovery of a potentially hazardous asteroid took astronomy on a roller coaster ride.

Astronomers at the Mount Lemmon Observatory in Arizona discovered an asteroid that was roughly 70 meters across. The object could potentially hit Earth on its next pass, based on their initial observations.

Astronomers at several different observatories scrambled to make follow-up observations of the asteroid after it was discovered, which usually rule out any future impacts.

The chance of impact appeared to increase based on the first seven nights of observations. The asteroid was flagged for a potential impact by the Asteroid Orbit Determination (AstOD), an automated system that is used to assess the asteroid risk.

One of the highest rankings on the Palermo Scale was given to the asteroid. The Near Earth Object information portal websites were published by both NASA and the European Space Agency.

The following week, no observations could be made because the full Moon blocked out any views of the asteroid.

The chance of an impact on Earth has been decreasing since the asteroid was tracked again.

MarcoMicheli, astronomer at the Near-Earth Object Coordination Centre, said that he had never seen such a risky object.

It was a thrill to track and refine the trajectory of the asteroid until we knew for certain that it wouldn't hit.

How did astronomer be able to rule out a threat that seemed certain?

A single dot of light in the sky is the only data point that can be used to observe an asteroid. At this point, it is not clear what it is or where it is going.

Lowering uncertainties is part of the process of refining the orbit to make sure that it won't go to Earth.

Astronomers use computer simulations to calculate the future path of the asteroid, and input randomly chosen initial positions and velocities that fall within the margin of error of the observations so far. Calculating the probability that a particular path will hit Earth is done by creating a large number of simulations.

The odds of the asteroid hitting Earth are a million to one if 1 million different possible orbits are used.

There is a global network of asteroid observing telescopes. There is an instrument called the "ESA."

With more data and observations, the hazard zone narrows and the corridor of the asteroid&s future path moves away from Earth.

Multiple observations and quick rule out any space rocks that aren't asteroids and comets can be done with the network of observatories around the world.

The data needed to show that the risk level calculated from early observations was wrong was provided by observations after the full Moon had waned. The team moved on after the risk level crashed and got close to zero.

The data was clear, confirmed the next morning by our counterparts at NASA, and Laura Faggioli, a near-Earth object dynamicist in the NEOCC, said.

We would have used any means possible to keep an eye on it if the path remained uncertain. As it was removed from our risk list, we no longer needed to follow it.

The asteroid will fly by Earth at a distance of ten million kilometers, more than 20 times the distance from the moon, in early July of 2023, and some keen observers will continue to monitor the asteroid.

It is likely that one day our planet will be hit by an asteroid or be hit by a large airburst event, even though the odds are low.

Calculating the rate of asteroid impacts, the current estimate is that one will hit Earth every 100 million years or so. Both professional and amateur astronomer continue to look at the skies.

The article was published by Universe Today. The original article is worth a read.