North Korea, China and the U.S. are closely watching South Korea’s election

Supporters await the arrival of presidential candidate Yoon Seok-youl of the main opposition People Power Party during during a presidential election campaign on Feb. 15, 2022, in Seoul, South Korea.

A conservative victory in the upcoming presidential election in South Korea could cause the country to adopt a strict stance on China and North Korea.

The front-runners for the March 9 vote are the conservative People Power Party's Yoon Seok-youl and the ruling Democratic Party's Lee Jae-myung. A string of opinion polls conducted by Gallup Korea show a tight race between Yoon and Lee. In a survey of 1,000 adults, Lee's public approval rating stood at 38%, compared with Yoon's 37%. There was a poll in February that showed the two tied at 34%.

Economic issues are at the forefront of the election. Public sentiment is expected to be affected by foreign policy matters and the anti-China sentiment at home. There is a lot at stake for South Korea with each candidate holding differing views on relations with North Korea, China and the United States.

As diplomatic talks with the United States and its allies remain at a standstill, Kim's government has been ramping up missile tests. This isn't a novel development, but against the backdrop of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, it adds to rising fears of regional unrest. According to officials in South Korea and Japan, a medium-range missile was fired by North Korea.

In line with his predecessors, Yoon wants North Korea to first denuclearize before the two Koreas agree on peace pacts and economic assistance. He told the South Korean newspaper that if North Korea doesn't change its attitude, he would consider canceling the Comprehensive Military Agreement.

South Korean presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung of the ruling Democratic Party looks on before televised presidential debate for the upcoming March 9 presidential election at KBS studio on March 02, 2022, in Seoul.

Moon's approach of diplomatic engagement and economic cooperation with North Korea is supported by Lee. If North Korea complies, he supports easing sanctions. Lee is open to declaring an end to the Korean war in order to bring the warring parties back to the negotiating table.

Analysts said that Lee is unlikely to copy Moon's policies. 38 North is the director of the Center's North Korea focused research arm.

Further complicating matters is the emphasis on resuming military exercises with the United States. These have been scaled down due to North Korea's perception of them as preparation for war. A revival is likely to anger Kim. It was the case during the tenures of Lee and Park that North Korea abandoned diplomacy.

A wave of anti-China uproar has been sweeping across South Korean media in recent weeks. The Asian giant has become a central talking point in the election because of its stance toward its neighbors in the South China Sea and the Indo-Pacific. South Korea has a close relationship with the United States and Beijing and Washington have a history of fighting each other.

Lee wants to balance security and economic relations with China. Lee is more concerned about China's economic influence on South Korea than he is about the North Korea issue.

Yoon Seok-Youl delivers his speech after winning the People Power Party’s final race to choose its presidential candidate for South Korea’s 2022 election on Nov. 5, 2021, in Seoul.

Yoon wants stronger security cooperation with the U.S., specifically calling for additional Terminal High Altitude Area Defense deployment, which is sure to spark economic punishment from China. The installation of the U.S. anti-missile system in South Korea led to a year-long standoff between Beijing and South Korea. Despite China's opposition to such moves, Yoon wants to apply for membership of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue as well as participate in the Five Eyes intelligence sharing program. If or when China starts to apply pressure on South Korea, the willingness to side with the U.S. will be questioned.

Relations with Tokyo have worsened due to trade spats and unresolved issues over Japan's colonial rule over Korea from 1910 to 1945. The procurement of South Korean women for military brothels is one of the matters included in the latter. South Korea's ambassador to Japan said in January that bilateral ties were at their worst level in 50 years.

That is expected to improve under a conservative regime. In a debate last month, he said that he would change the dynamic of the relationship with Washington and Tokyo. Several experts told CNBC that Yoon is expected to set aside historical disputes with Japan in order to resolve bilateral trade conflicts and forge closer security cooperation.

Lee agrees with the importance of improving relations between South Korea and Japan and is open to talks, but he insists that Japan address historical disputes.

An increase in regional tension brought about by China’s assertiveness, US efforts to contain China, or North Korea’s long-range missile and nuclear tests, will shrink the number of policy options that the next South Korean president can pursue.

The dynamics of Asia-Pacific security and politics don't allow for great shifts in foreign policy, according to several analysts.

An increase in regional tension brought about by China's assertiveness, US efforts to contain China, and North Korea's long-range missile and nuclear tests will shrink the number of policy options that the next South Korean president can pursue.

The Stimson Center said that South Korea is trying to create a buffer against the US and China in order to cultivate deeper relations with other middle powers.