Striking new evidence points to seafood market in Wuhan as pandemic origin point

Security guards stand in front of the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in the city of Wuhan on January 11, 2020, after the market had been closed due to an outbreak of COVID-19 there. Two new studies show positive samples of the disease from stalls where live animals are sold.

Noel Celis/AFP via Getty Images

There were a few animals inside a metal cage and on top of a chicken coop. The red fox was curled up in the corner of his cage. There is a chance that one of these wild animals could have caused the COVID-19 epidemic.

The strongest evidence to date that the COVID pandemic originated in animals at a market in Wuhan was offered by an international team of scientists over the weekend. They conclude that the virus most likely jumped from a wild animal into people at a seafood market.

The new data and blow to the lab-leak theory is what scientists who weren't involved in the research papers are calling it. They say the new data is tipping the scales in favor of wildlife sold at the market.

The studies do not exclude other hypotheses, but they push it toward an animal origin.

The papers don't give a smoking gun that an animal is at a market.

They come close. They provide photographic evidence of wild animals that can be carriers of the disease, like a red fox and a raccoon dog.

There are machines that process animals after they are slaughtered at the market that were found to have been exposed to the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

The papers are not final. They need to be reviewed by other scientists. If the analyses turn out to be accurate, the new data will show an incredibly detailed picture of the early days of the Pandemic. There is a stall at the market where the virus likely was transmitted from an animal into people. A new genetic analysis estimates the time when there are at least one and two spillovers. It believes the virus jumped into people in late November or early December and then again a few weeks later.

For the first time, the earliest known COVID infections coincide with the outbreak at the seafood market, which began in early December and likely involved hundreds of people working or shopping at the market. One of the new studies shows that the outbreak spilled over into the surrounding community.

The shuttered Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market was investigated by members of the Wuhan Hygiene Emergency Response Team.

Noel Celis/AFP via Getty Images

The Chinese CDC found two different versions of the virus inside the market. A study led by researchers at the University of California, San Diego suggests that the two variant did not evolve in people. The new studies suggest that the two variant evolved inside animals.

Michael Worobey was at the forefront of the search for the origins of the Pandemic. He has tracked down the origin of many diseases, including the 1918 flu.

The lab-leak theory was the subject of a letter signed by Worobey. He quickly found 888-353-1299 888-353-1299 888-353-1299 888-353-1299 888-353-1299 888-353-1299 888-353-1299 888-353-1299 888-353-1299 888-353-1299 888-353-1299 888-353-1299 888-353-1299 888-353-1299 888-353-1299 888-353-1299 888-353-1299 888-353-1299 888-353-1299 888-353-1299 888-353-1299 888-353-1299 888-353-1299 888-353-1299 888-353-1299 888-353-1299 888-353-1299 888-353-1299 888-353-1299 888-353-1299 888-353-1299 888-353-1299 888-353-1299 888-353-1299 888-353-1299 888-353-1299 888-353-1299 888-353-1299 888-353-1299 888-353-1299 888-353-1299 888-353-1299 888-353-1299 888-353-1299 888-353-1299 888-353-1299 888-353-1299 888-353-1299 888-353-1299 888-353-1299 888-353-1299 888-353-1299 888-353-1299 888-353-1299 888-353-1299

The data in these new studies tells us about the origin of the disease, and how it may change the debate about lab-leak theories. The conversation has been edited for clarity and length.

Live animals that are susceptible to COVID were in the market in December 2019

There were live animals in the market. There is photographic evidence from December 2019. On December 3, a concerned customer took photos and videos of the market and posted them on Weibo because it was illegal to sell certain live animals. The photos were wiped clean. The person who took the photos had communicated directly with the CNN reporter. I was able to get in touch with the reporter, who gave me the photos from the source. We don't completely verify the photos.

There are live animals for sale in the southwest corner of the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan, China, in 2019.

Worobey and Holmes et al.

The southwest corner is believed to be the most probable origin point of the SAR-CoV-2 virus.

Worobey and Holmes et al.

We analyzed a leaked report from the Chinese CDC detailing the results of the environmental sampling. The findings in the report were in line with the World Health Organization's report. There was more information in the report. There was more than one information on which stalls had virus in them, or samples positive for the disease, but also how many samples in a given stall yielded positive results.

We found out that one stall had five positive samples and five surfaces had virus on them. The samples were very animal-y. A metal cage in a back room, a cart used for transporting cages, and a virus on a feather/hair remover are just some of the things scientists found.

The metal cage in the back room was one of the surfaces that the national public health authorities found to be positive for the disease.

It turns out that one of the co-authors of the study, Eddie Holmes, had been to the Huanan market several years before the epidemic and showed the animals. He was told that this is the kind of place that has the ingredients for cross-species transmission of dangerous pathogens.

He clicks photos of the dogs. The animals are in a cage stacked on top of a cage with birds in it.

At the end of our sleuth work, we checked the gps coordinates on his camera, and we found that he took a photo at the same stall where five samples tested positive for the disease.

We connected all sorts of weird data. The data is telling a strong story.

The photos were taken in China in the summer of 2014, and show animals in a seafood market. The southwest corner of the market was where researchers found evidence of the virus in January 2020.

Eddie Holmes

You don't have a chance of linking all the early cases to the site where the outbreak started with a virus like the one that causes no symptoms in most people. The virus will quickly spread to people outside of where it started.

Half of the earliest-known COVID cases were people linked to the seafood market. The other cases have an even closer geographical association to the market. That is what we show in our paper.

It is absurd how strong the geographical association is.

NPR: Absurd? How? The seafood market is clearly the center of the outbreak.

Yes, worobey. I don't understand how anyone could not be moved by that data, and then take this idea of an animal origin seriously, especially given the other things we've found in these studies.

The view of a seafood market in China.

Getty Images

For example, our new genetic analysis tells us that the virus was not around for very long when the cases occurred. The earliest known patient at the market had symptoms on December 10, 2019. At that point in time, there were probably less than 70 people in the world who had been exposed to the virus.

One of the first five or 10 people in the world to be affected by the Pandemic was at the market. How do you explain that?

There are 11 million people in the city of Wuhan. The Huanan market is one of only a few places in the city that sells live animals that are susceptible to the disease.

It's highly unlikely that the first COVID outbreak would occur at the market if there weren't a source of the virus there

Where is the first cluster of a new respiratory infection going to appear in this city? It could appear at a school, a university or a meatpacking plant.

Or a conference about drugs?

Yes, worobey. In Washington state, it was first seen in a nursing home. In Germany, it was at a supplier.

There are thousands, perhaps 10,000 other places at least as likely, or even more likely, to be the place where a new pathogen shows up. Out of 10,000 other places, the first cluster of cases happens to be one of four places that sells live animals. If you aren't surprised by that, I don't think you understand the significance of that.

There is a chance that the first cluster of cases occurs at a market that sells animals that are susceptible to the disease.

I would put the odds at 1 in 10,000. It is interesting. If the market isn't a source of the virus, we have an analysis where we show that the chance of having this pattern of cases around the market is 1 in 10 million. The evidence in science is strong.

The analyses that we have done are telling a very strong story.

The evidence is among the best for emerging viruses.

NPR: Really?

It is important to note that we have not found a related virus from the intermediate host. We have a lot of other evidence.

The data that indicated to John Snow that the water pump was poisoning people who used it is as compelling as the data on the Huanan market. John Snow was a doctor in London who helped to start the field of outbreak investigations by figuring out the source of a cholera outbreak in the city in the 19th century.

Making these findings brought tears.

Sometimes you have rare moments where you are the only person on Earth who has access to this kind of crucial information. I felt like there were more cases around the market than I expected. That moment brings a tear to your eye.