According to The New York Times and CNN, the US intelligence community is in a heated debate over whether Russian President Vladimir Putin is losing touch with reality and becoming increasingly crazy.
National security and intelligence veterans don't want to paint Putin as a madman.
Glenn Carle, a former CIA officer, told Insider that the Russian leader has a clear strategy.
The parallels between Putin's actions in Ukraine and his previous efforts to bring other countries into the Russian sphere of influence were noted by experts.
Jonathan Katz, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund, told Insider that there are no major differences between what is happening in Ukraine and what happened in Chechnya, Syria, and other conflict zones.
Putin has used force like this before, committing human rights violations that have been grotesque and cost lives.
It has been difficult for US intelligence agencies to gain a glimpse into Putin's mind. The intelligence community has been trying to figure out how the Russian leader works since he gained control of Russia in 1999. The former KGB officer is still a hard target for officials.
John McLaughlin, the former deputy CIA director who also briefly served as acting director, told Insider that no one could know what was going on inside Putin's head.
Russia's brazen invasion, as well as its apparent disregard for distinguishing between military and civilian targets, sent shockwaves through the international community and united Western nations.
The US and its European allies imposed sanctions on Russia that could hurt its ability to finance its war. Several European countries reversed policies against getting involved in conflict zones and said they would send weapons and financial assistance to help Ukraine.
Even some of Putin's closest allies, like the billionaires Mikhail Fridman and Oleg Deripaska, spoke out against the war. Thousands of Russians have taken to the streets to protest against the war.
The invasion of Ukraine is not going well, the Ukrainians are fighting back, there is protest at home, and Russia has just been slammed with the strongest package of economic sanctions in modern history.
As a result, the field of options available to Putin is getting increasingly narrow, and there is a greater chance that desperation will drive him to some reckless decisions.
Carle said that the difference in how the West views international relations versus how Putin sees them is a fundamental point in why we are in a crisis.
According to Carle, the Russian leader believes that the West, capitalism, and Atlanticist are threats to Russia and mankind. Putin sees foreign policy as a zero-sum game in which a gain for one side comes at the expense of the other.
Since the fall of the Soviet Union, Putin has sought to restore what he sees as Russian greatness by changing the geography and politics of the country.
He believes what he says about Ukraine because he is consistent in his thinking. He is acting rationally in the confines of irrational beliefs.
Kevin Ryan was a retired US brigadier general and former defense attach to Russia.
He said that Putin wants an all-out reclaiming of greater Russia. The consequences of his invasion of Ukraine, crushing sanctions, military operation that isn't going as planned, and demoralized Russian forces mean he's backed into a corner.
He cannot lose this. Ryan said that he cannot give up on his goal. That will not end well for him.
Russia's nuclear forces were put on high alert over the weekend after Putin ordered them to be on high alert.
There are concerns that the fog of war could lead Putin to misinterpret things and take even more drastic steps, which is why the Biden administration and NATO have repeatedly said they will not send troops into Ukraine.
Jon Wolfsthal, a senior advisor at Global Zero who previously served on the National Security Council under President Barack Obama, told Insider that there is always confusion and mistakes made in war.
Ryan believes the Russian leader would use a small nuclear weapon to keep the US and NATO out of Ukraine.
The Biden administration and other Western nations made the right decision by saying the US and NATO wouldn't put boots on the ground in Ukraine to help defend it, because it could lead to a nuclear war.
If this spills over into something more significant, he may decide to use whatever weapon is at his disposal.
According to the Ukrainian government, Russian forces have launched heavy shelling and missile attacks on residential buildings, an orphanage, kindergartens, and a children's hospital.
Ukrainian forces and civilian defense forces have put up a fiercer resistance than Putin anticipated, beating back Russian troops for days as they tried to capture the capital of Kyiv and decapitate the elected government of Ukraine.
Military and intelligence analysts warned that the fight is not over.
Michael Kofman, the Russia expert at the Center for a New American Security, said on Monday that the Russian military was suspending thunder runs.
The city of Kherson was seized by Russia on Wednesday.
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