Would Vladimir Putin really use nuclear weapons in Ukraine?

Matthew Sparkes is a writer.

Nuclear conflict is a distinct but remote possibility as global tensions are heightened by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, warn analysts. Russian president Vladimir Putin is in a vulnerable and unpredictable position as he contends with a sluggish economy, increasing dissent among his citizens, and the potential for military defeat.

On 27 February, Putin ordered his forces to take a special regime of combat duty, raising Russia's nuclear readiness system level. The announcement was vague and counter to the typical nuclear deterrence strategy of acting clearly and transparently as a warning to others. The country would have been at level 2 of Russia's four-level system had the situation in Ukraine been different.

Putin's announcement is being seen as a move from level 1 to level 2, ready to accept an order to fire. We are closer to a nuclear conflict than at any point since the cold war, according to Bury.