A major new scientific report has concluded that the dangers of climate change are mounting so rapidly that they could overwhelm the ability of both nature and humanity to adapt, creating a harrowing future in which floods, fires and famine kill millions, species disappear and the planet is irreversibly damaged.
The most detailed look yet at the threats posed by global warming was released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It concludes that nations aren't doing nearly enough to protect cities, farms and coastlines from the dangers that climate change has already unleashed, such as record droughts and rising seas, let alone from the even greater disasters in store as the planet keeps heating up.
The report is a damning indictment of failed climate leadership and was written by 270 researchers from 67 countries.
Hundreds of millions of people could be affected by floods, heat waves, and water scarcity as global temperatures continue to rise, according to a report. New parts of the globe will be affected by diseases carried by mosquitoes. Families in places like Africa and Asia are at greater risk of hunger and malnutrition because of crop failures. The authors said that people will suffer loss or flee their homes if they can't adapt to the environmental shifts.
The report said that nations need to quickly and sharply reduce emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases that are dangerously heating the planet.
The world's poor nations will need hundreds of billions of dollars per year in financial support over the next few decades to protect themselves from climate shocks, even though wealthier nations have been slow to provide.
The environment minister of the Caribbean nation of Grenada said that the report is terrifying. The scale of the crisis requires nothing less.
Humans have pumped heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere by burning coal, oil and gas for energy, and cutting down forests since the 19th century.
President Biden has pledged to limit global warming to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius compared with preindustrial levels. Scientists say the likelihood of catastrophic climate impacts increases significantly beyond that threshold.
Most nations are far off-track in achieving the goal of eliminating fossil-fuel emissions by the year 2050. According to experts, the world is on pace to warm between 2 degrees and 3 degrees Celsius this century.
The report warns that even the best efforts to adapt could be in trouble if the average temperature goes up. Many nations can't afford the cost of defending coastal communities against rising seas. Farming in parts of North America could become more difficult due to rising levels of heat stress.
The director of the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Center said that they are not going to manage on a lot of fronts.
Poor countries are more exposed to climate risks than rich countries. The report said that between 2010 and 2020, floods and storms killed 15 times as many people in vulnerable countries as they did in the wealthiest countries.
The industrialized nations most responsible for greenhouse gas emissions owe developing countries something. Low-income nations want financial help to defend against future threats and to compensate for damages they can't avoid. The next United Nations climate summit in Egypt in November will focus on the issue.
Fatuma Hussein, a program manager with Power Shift Africa, said that people are dying by the day in northern Kenya.
Ms. Hussein said that some herders are moving their livestock. She said that vulnerable countries will not be able to manage without support from rich nations.
Debora Ley, an energy specialist based in Guatemala who contributed to the report, said that climate adaptation measures that are effective today may not be feasible in the future. Some communities in the region may face collapse due to rising seas, droughts, and mudslides.
195 governments approved the report which states that the risks to humans and nature will increase with every additional fraction of a degree of warming.
Up to 8 percent of the world's farmland could become unsuitable for growing food by the end of the century if global warming reaches 1.5 degrees Celsius. Coral reefs, which protect coastlines against storms, will decline by 70 to 90 percent. Without new protections, the number of people exposed to severe coastal flooding could increase by more than one-fifth.
The amount of land burned by wildfires is expected to rise by more than one-third if global warming continues. More than one-third of the population in southern Europe could face chronic water scarcity because of the current dry spell. Crop yields and fish harvests could decline in many places.
By century's end, the risk of extreme weather events could increase fivefold. Flooding from sea level rise and heavier rainstorms could cause four times as much economic damage as they do today. A high risk of extinction is faced by as many as 29 percent of known plant and animal species.
Many nations have been able to limit the damage by spending billions of dollars each year on adaptation measures like flood barriers, air-conditioning or early-warning systems.
Over the past 50 years, the number of deaths from storms, floods and other extreme weather events has fallen due to improved early warning systems and disaster management. Investments in public health have meant that fewer people are succumbing to diseases like cholera, even as rising temperatures and heavier rains have aided their spread.
The report said that those efforts are too often. Changing how people build homes, grow food, produce energy and protect nature will be required to prepare for future threats.
Some of the planet's most vulnerable nations are spending a lot of money to cope with climate threats. According to government information compiled by Power Shift Africa, Ethiopia aims to spend $6 billion a year on a range of adaptation measures. South Sudan, one of the world's most impoverished countries, is planning to spend $376 million a year until the year 2030.
A decade ago, wealthy nations pledged to give $100 billion per year to the developing world by 2020 to shift to cleaner sources of energy and adapt to climate change. They have fallen short by tens of billions of dollars, with only a fraction of the funds spent on adaptation.
John Kerry, President Biden's special envoy for climate change, acknowledged in an interview Monday that wealthy nations were not doing enough.
He said that every country needs to do more in terms of addressing both adaptation and resilience.
The report said that many communities are acting in ways that increase their vulnerability. Millions of people are moving to areas that are less prone to flooding because of sea level rise. Some adaptation measures have consequences. Sea walls can protect certain places but can also cause flooding in populated areas elsewhere. Irrigation can help protect crops but can also deplete resources.
The report recommends that leaders use more farsighted strategies. As oceans rise, coastal communities could relocate inland. Poor and rural communities could be made more resilient against climate shocks by improvements in basic services.
Edward R. Carr is a professor of international development at Clark University. I don't know, we'll always have choices. They will be less good choices and will be more difficult to make.
The reporting was contributed by Somini Sengupta.
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