Baylor is back at No. 2, and some fresh faces in the top 16

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Is March actually starting on Saturday?

Seven of the top 10 teams in the country lost on the same day for the first time in college basketball history, and each of the top six teams lost.

Are we?

It is still No. 1. The Zags have eight Quadrant 1 wins and are still No. 1 in most metrics. The five teams behind them all lost on the same day. Even though I had them at 10 last week, there is a real argument to be made for them at 2. The Bears have the most wins in the country with 11, and they are in the Big 12 title hunt again. Is that enough to drop Arizona from the top spot? The lack of top-level wins besides UCLA and Illinois could hurt them in head-to-head comparisons.

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My 1-seeds would be rounded out by Kansas. The Jayhawks have 10 Quadrant 1 wins and are near the top of both metrics. In a head-to-head comparison, the difference is due to the fact that the Bears have one more Quadrant 1 win and are slightly superior in most metrics.

Duke rose after sweeping both of its games this past week, while auburn fell because of its continued road struggles. The head-to-head win of Duke and the Tigers has kept them ahead of Kentucky. Since Texas Tech also lost, Purdue stays inside the top eight.

Wisconsin is one team to watch in the top two seeds. The Badgers don't have a lot of good metrics, but they are in the top five of both the Strength of Record and the Key Performance Indicators.

Team of the Week: Baylor Bears

The Bears rise all the way to second in my rankings, giving them the edge over the Huskies. I will have more on the Huskies later in the rankings.

After a rough month that saw the Bears go 5-5 in an 11-game stretch, they are starting to hit their stride again. The week in which they knocked off Oklahoma State in overtime and then came back to beat Kansas might be the one that gets them back on track.

After the buzzer of regulation, Isaac Likekele hit a shot that was one of the all-time what-if shots in recent memory. James Akinjo's shot in the final 15 seconds of overtime was the difference.

After the Jayhawks jumped out to a 28-15 lead, it looked like the Bears might get blown out. The Bears responded with a huge run and were content at the half. The Bears took the lead for good in the second half with an 8-2 run and went on to win 80-70.

Player of the Week: JD Notae, Arkansas Razorbacks

The transfer portal entry of JD Notae was not a big deal. There wasn't a rush of schools waiting to sign him, but he put up good numbers during his two seasons at Jacksonville. It makes sense that the Razorbacks beat out a bunch of mid-major programs for Notae's commitment, since Eric Musselman was still at Nevada when Notae hit the portal.

Arkansas is glad it took a chance on Notae. After establishing himself as one of the best sixth men in the country last season, the talented guard is second in the SEC in scoring and is coming off arguably his best two-game stretch in an Arkansas uniform. Notae had 22 points and six rebound in a road win at Florida on Tuesday, then followed it up with one of the best offensive performances we have seen in the league this season. Notae was mostly unguardable against Kentucky. He scored 18 points in the first half and then used the added defensive attention in the second half to his advantage, dishing out five assists. He had 30 points and eight assists for Arkansas.

The Razorbacks have won 13 of their last 14 games and Notae is a major reason for that.

Win of the Week: Saint Mary's Gaels, 67, Gonzaga Bulldogs 57

There were many options for this category. The team that beat them gets the nod.

Slow down the pace of the game, don't shoot early in the shot clock and keep Gonzaga out of transition are some of the tricks the Gaels use to try to beat them. It often doesn't work because the Zags are so talented. The team of Randy Bennett has had success in the past using this strategy.

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Mitchell Saxen was rejected by Saint Mary's.

Saint Mary's went on a 12-0 run midway through the first half to lead by 15 at the break. It always seemed like there was one big run in them, a game-changing surge to take back control and continue their perfect conference-play season. But it never arrived. Drew Timme and the rest of the Zags didn't get going and Saint Mary's made timely shots down the stretch. Tommy Kuhse was terrific,Logan Johnson had multiple highlight-reel plays, and Matthias Tass and Mitchell Saxen outplayed Timme and Holmgren down low.

Coach of the Week: Eric Henderson, South Dakota State Jackrabbits

For the first time in the 40-year history of the Summit League, a team went perfect in conference play: Eric Henderson's South Dakota State team beat Oral Roberts and UMKC on the road this week. The Jackrabbits are a legitimate first-round upset threat if they win the conference tournament.

They dominated league play. Twelve of South Dakota State's 18 wins were by double digits. The Jackrabbits were the best offense in the Summit with an average of 1.23 points per possession, while North Dakota State was the best defense.

Henderson has been one of the most successful mid-major coaches in the country. Scott Nagy and T.J. Otzelberger established winning ways that he has taken to a new level. Henderson won the regular-season title in 2020 and the championship in 2021, and dominated the league this season. There was only one thing missing from his time at South Dakota State. An appearance in the NCAA tournament. That could change very soon.

Three teams with questions

After four straight wins to get into the NCAA tournament, the Rutgers Scarlet Knights have lost three in a row. They have high-level wins at the top, but they are also.500 or worse against each of the first three Quadrants. They have a lot of work to do.

Anthony Grant's team looked like a legitimate top 25 team after a three-game losing streak. The loss at La Salle likely removes the Flyers from the at-large hunt. They have four losses and three wins, but they aren't enough to be the top team.

The Hurricanes have lost to Virginia and Virginia Tech at home in the last two weekends, so I think they are out of the field. They have two road games to end the season.

Power Rankings

1. Gonzaga Bulldogs (24-3)

Previous ranking:

1

This week: West Coast Conference tournament

Is there a real cause of concern for the school? It is unlikely that Timme will miss his first eight shots like he did on Saturday, and it is unlikely that Holmgren will struggle to impact the game on offense like he did on Saturday. Mark Few's two star big men combined for just 12 points on 5-for-17 shooting, turning the ball over six times and fouling out.

We have seen him struggle against a good opponent a few times this season, so his performance is slightly more concerning to me. He had two points on three shots. He had 10 points on nine shots against Alabama and five points against Texas Tech, but he was productive against UCLA and Duke. He has taken huge strides since those games and has looked like an All-American for most of the last two months. The man will be fine. It will be fine.

2. Baylor Bears (24-5)

Previous ranking:

This week: at Texas (Monday), vs. Iowa State (Saturday)

A lot of the rise in the rankings this week is due to the fact that every team in front of them is losing, and the fact that the Bears are so solid despite some of their flaws. The Bears are learning how to play small ball. After a poor performance against Texas Tech in Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua, the Bears have won three in a row and have some of the best basketball players in the country. Thamba had 18 points and nine boards against Kansas, while Sochan had 17 points in his last three games. When Thamba went to the bench, Matthew and Kendall held their own.

3. Arizona Wildcats (25-3)

Previous ranking:

This week: at Southern California (Tuesday), vs. Stanford (Thursday), vs. California (Saturday)

The loss at Colorado on Saturday was the worst game of the season because of issues at both ends of the floor. Colorado won the paint battle. Arizona is used to having its way around the rim, in terms of getting to the basket and finishing or throwing the ball to Azuolas Tubelis or Christian Koloko for a bucket, and also in terms of protecting the rim at the other end. Colorado had the edge inside. The Wildcats have only made five 3-pointers all season, and they struggled to make shots from the perimeter.

4. Kansas Jayhawks (23-5)

Previous ranking:

This week: at TCU (Tuesday), vs. TCU (Thursday), vs. Texas (Saturday)

The loss of Kansas to Baylor on Saturday night puts the Jayhawks in danger of being the top seed in the Big 12 tournament. They still have 10 Quadrant 1 wins, which is second nationally to Baylor, as well as the No. 1 ranking in the two result-based metrics on an NCAA team sheet. Bill Self used the Jayhawks bench in the game against the Bears. Only six players played more than four minutes, with only one bench player seeing double-digit minutes. Is Self expecting Martin to be a 15- to 17-minute type of player, or will he increase his role as he gets more comfortable?

5. Duke Blue Devils (25-4)

Previous ranking:

This week: at Pittsburgh (Tuesday), vs. North Carolina (Saturday)

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The Duke Blue Devil spread the ball around until Mark Williams dunked it.

Duke had a great offensive performance against Syracuse. The Blue Devil scored 1.58 points per possession, their best outing of the season and their best since scoring 1.68 points per possession against Presbyterian in November 2014, according to KenPom's database. The Carrier Dome is a different place from a home game in November against a Big South opponent. They shot 60.6% inside the arc and 46.9% from 3 on 15 made 3s. They assisted on 35 field goals. They turned it over six times. Mark Williams dominated the paint, Paolo Banchero was the perfect option to run offense through against the zone, and the other was outstanding from the perimeter.

6. Auburn Tigers (25-4)

Previous ranking:

This week: at Mississippi State (Wednesday), vs. South Carolina (Saturday)

While Saturday's other top 10 losses keep Auburn in the mix for a 1-seed, the Tigers have now lost three of their last six games, with all three losses coming on the road. Their performance on the road has been a problem all season. In road games, auburn is the 99th most efficient team in adjusted offensive efficiency. Outside shooting has been a problem, regardless of where the Tigers play, but they are making just 27.4% of their 3-pointers in road games. The neutral floors where the SEC and NCAA tournaments are played are where the most effective shooting the basketball has been this season. In three of the four neutral-site games, it made at least 12 3s.

7. Kentucky Wildcats (23-6)

Previous ranking:

This week: vs. Ole Miss (Tuesday), at Florida (Saturday)

Heading down the stretch, Kentucky's defense is starting to become something of a concern. When the Cats looked like the best team in college basketball, they went six games in a row without allowing an opponent to score more than 1.00 points per possession. They had the top adjusted defensive efficiency over that period. They have allowed at least 1.02 points per possession in four straight games, including Arkansas on Saturday. Their adjusted defensive efficiency is 236. They need a fully healthy Ty Ty Washington to round back into form.

8. Purdue Boilermakers (24-5)

Previous ranking:

This week: at Wisconsin (Tuesday), vs. Indiana (Saturday)

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For the first time in more than a month, the offense may have been to blame for the loss at Michigan State. The Boilermakers had their worst 3-point shooting performance of the season. It was the fifth time this season they made fewer than eight 3s. It looked like the Boilermakers were out of the running for a 1-seed on Selection Sunday, after they lost.

If the Boilermakers want to avoid a 3-seed, they have a lot of work to do. A loss at Wisconsin on Tuesday will affect whether or not it earns a share of the Big Ten regular-season title.

9. Wisconsin Badgers (23-5)

Previous ranking:

This week: vs. Purdue (Tuesday), vs. Nebraska (Sunday)

Since a loss to Rutgers, Wisconsin has won four in a row. The Badgers have won four straight road games and eight of their last nine away from home. That will bode well for the tournament. Wisconsin is becoming more consistent on the offensive end. In the Big Ten, the Badgers are in the middle of the pack in most offensive statistics, but they have scored at least 1.02 points per possession in four straight games and have been very efficient inside the arcs. They have made at least half of their 2-point shots in five of their last six games. Wisconsin is last in the Big Ten in 3-point percentage and has made double-figure 3s just five times all season.

10. Tennessee Volunteers (21-7)

Previous ranking:

This week: at Georgia (Tuesday), vs. Arkansas (Saturday)

In the first month of the season, Kennedy Chandler looked like he was one of the best point guards in the country. After hitting some bumps in the road in December and January, he returned to his early-season form over the last four weeks. In his last eight games, Chandler has averaged 14.4 points, 4.3 rebound and 4.8 assists, while also accruing 2.1 steals at the other end. He has taken advantage of less attention from the defense because of the burden he has taken off of him from a playmaking and ballhandling perspective. They put a lot of pressure on opposing guards.

11. Providence Friars (24-3)

Previous ranking:

This week: at Villanova (Tuesday)

It has been a special, special season for Ed Cooley and the Friars, who on Saturday secured their first-ever Big East regular-season title. How does Providence carry that momentum into the playoffs? A positive sign was the shooting of A.J. Reeves. After missing five games in January due to a finger injury and then struggling upon his return, Reeves is starting to find his shooting stroke again. In the triple-overtime win against the Musketeers on Wednesday, he went 5-for-8 from behind the 3-point line and finished with 16 points.

12. Villanova Wildcats (21-7)

Previous ranking:

This week: vs. Providence (Tuesday), at Butler (Saturday)

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I will be watching how the committee views the profile of Villanova. The top of the team is not as strong as that of some of the other teams. The wins over Tennessee, Connecticut and Providence are impressive, but they are not as good as others in that range. Texas Tech and Tennessee are directly behind the teams in Joe Lunardi's brackets. Tech has wins over Kansas and Tennessee. Tennessee has knocked off several teams. There is a head-to-head win over Nova and a sweep of Illinois. Duke beat Kentucky. That could be a way to keep the Cats off the 2-line. Jay Wright will be happy if they are in Philadelphia as the 3 instead of San Antonio as the 2.

13. Texas Tech Red Raiders (22-7)

Previous ranking:

This week: vs. Kansas State (Monday), at Oklahoma State (Saturday)

Texas Tech's march toward a potential 2-seed on Selection Sunday took a huge hit with Saturday's three-point road loss at TCU. The Red Raiders struggled because the Frogs were able to score inside the arcs. Texas Tech's strength all season has been that it doesn't allow teams to get into the paint and score at the rim. In the paint, they scored 30 points, shot 55.9% from inside the arcs, and made 19 2-pointers. In a Texas Tech loss, 19 is the second-most 2-point field goals Texas Tech has allowed all season. Tech has allowed the second-highest percentage on 2-pointers all season. The third-highest was Oklahoma, which lost to Texas Tech. The Texas Tech win was the result of Arkansas State's 60.9%.

14. Arkansas Razorbacks (23-6)

Previous ranking:

This week: vs. LSU (Wednesday), at Tennessee (Saturday)

The SEC has a lot of talented big men, including Oscar Tshiebwe, Walker Kessler, and Colin Castleton. Over the last six weeks, Jaylin Williams has been as good as anyone else in the country. He showed some flashes at the end of last season, but that didn't carry over to the first half of the next season. Williams has been great since the Razorbacks started their winning streak. He's averaged 14.5 points, 10.9 rebound and 2.0 assists over the last 14 games, while also making an impact on the defensive end of the floor. He scored 10 straight for Arkansas late in the game against Kentucky on Saturday.

15. UConn Huskies (21-7)

Previous ranking:

In the waiting room

This week: at Creighton (Wednesday), vs. DePaul (Saturday)

The University of Connecticut moved into the rankings after winning at Georgetown on Sunday and at home against Villanova on Tuesday. The Huskies have won five in a row and 11 of their last 14 games to give them a chance at a top-four seed come Selection Sunday. The current iteration of the team is led by its offense. The second-ranked offensive unit in the Big East is a top-20 offense. One of the best 3-point shooting teams in the league is the Huskies. They have scored at least 1.06 points per possession in each of their last four games, making at least 41.7% of their 3-pointers. They are ranked 11th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency.

16. Saint Mary's Gaels (24-6)

Previous ranking:

Unranked

This week: WCC tournament

Don't think the Gaels are just a one-hit wonder, only getting into the rankings because of their win over Gonzaga. Two weekends ago, they knocked off BYU, and they have neutral-court wins over Notre Dame and Oregon. They are 9-6 against Quadrant 1 and 2 opponents and are in the top 25 of nearly every metric. They are terrific defensively for a second straight season. Only five teams have scored more than one point per possession against them, and they limit their opponents on the perimeter. Will Randy Bennett's team get a top-four seed on Selection Sunday? It feels like a longshot, unless they can upset the odds in the title game.

The Illinois Fighting Illini, UCLA Bruins, and Houston Cougars have all been dropped out.

In the waiting room

Houston dropped out of the rankings despite winning two games this past week, teams with marquee wins added to their profiles start to look more attractive when compared to Houston and its zero Quadrant 1 wins. It is shaping up to be a huge question for the committee because the metrics are difficult to ignore.

Illinois has lost three of its last six games since making a push for the Big Ten title and a top 10 ranking. The win at Michigan by the Fighting Illini on Sunday afternoon got some of the momentum back, and it also capped a great week for Alfonso Plummer. He had 26 points in two games last week.

The last spot in the waiting room is held by the UCLA Bruins, who beat Arizona and Villanova, and they beat Texas, Southern California and Murray State. If they are going to be a factor moving forward, they will need a fit Johnny Juzang. Juzang has played less than 20 minutes in two of UCLA's last five games. He has an ankle injury and had a hip issue.