Biloxi Sun HeraldBiloxi Sun Herald
Alexei Nikolsky/Kremlin Pool Photo via AP

The war in Ukraine is a cynical, brutal and inhumane example of the discredited and obsolete principle that might make right.

Putin has plunged Europe into the worst military crisis since WWII and sank American-Russian relations to the worst depths of the Cold War. Putin is gambling with the future of the country he has misruled and dominated for over two decades. Putin's war is more than an exercise in ethical and legal nihilism. It's self-destructive.

Putin has brought about outcomes against which he claims to be fighting. Instead of restoring its power, he has isolated Russia. Putin's allies in China and Mar-a-Lago have helped unite the world against him. Putin has given new importance to NATO and the Euro-Atlantic alliance of liberal democracies, in contrast to the disunity and ambiguities of the Trump era. Putin's hostile policies have led to increased military deployment on Russia's western frontier.

The Russian nation has been exposed to economic warfare. Countersanctions will hurt everyone. Russia will be hit harder by them because of its lack of economic depth. Russia will not be able to escape the economic impact of the sanctions regime if it is long and robust. As the ruble tanks and Russians watch their purchasing power dwindle, they will wonder if Putin's military adventure abroad is worth the price of their lowered living standards and livelihoods.

Russia has the ability to overwhelm Ukraine in this opening phase of military operations. Russia doesn't have the force to occupy and control Ukraine in the long term. It can't do that in the face of Ukrainian opposition. It will be easy for Putin to invade Ukraine, but he will find it difficult to Russify it, and it will be dangerous to withdraw from it.

I don't believe that the Russian public supports the war. Putin has not prepared Russia to support a war of aggression and territorial aggrandizement in Ukraine. If this conflict is bloody and long, it will be unpopular with the average Russian. It will hurt Putin's political image and domestic reputation as a competent and rational technocrat.

The ordinary people will suffer the most from Putin's mistakes. Many more casualties will be produced by this war. One of them is unknown to the public, but may be Vladimir Putin's domestic popularity, legitimacy, and power.

The University of Southern Mississippi School of Humanities has an associate professor named Brian LaPierre. He can be reached at brian.lapierre@usm.edu.

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