Putin’s miscalculation

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Watching the war on Ukraine play out, it seems that the Russian president underestimated the Ukrainians and their president.

In 2004, Putin said there was no such thing as a former KGB man, and that he lives in a world of the past. The territories of the former Soviet Union and the countries of the former Warsaw Pact are run out of Moscow, which is the world that existed before the end of the Cold War. He is trying to rebuild a world.

You lose touch with the present when you live in the past.

Despite controlling what Russians watch, listen to and read, Putin has lost touch with ordinary Russians. Putin has lost touch with what Ukrainians think.

You never get a reality check if you surround yourself with sycophants, suck-ups and yes-men. You assume that means you eliminated dissent.

The U.S.-led withdrawal from Afghanistan may have been the most important moment in the downfall of the USSR.

The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan would have delighted Putin if the West had left last year. The capitulation of the U.S., the impotence of Europe, and the relative ease with which the Taliban took control of the Afghan capital made the prospect of a military intervention in the country seem intriguing.

Maybe Putin thought he'd be able to get into Kyiv like the Taliban did in Afghanistan. He expected to be welcomed in by Russian-speaking Ukrainians who were nostalgic for the Soviet heydays. It seems that Putin expected Ukrainians to lay down their arms and for their pro-Western and NATO President to flee, making space for one of Moscow's allies. After a few days, Putin could declare his mission over and the tanks could be rolled back to Russia. He would take a few casualties, some painful but not devastating sanctions, and then it would be back to business as usual.

If Putin had tried this maneuver during the Ukrainian presidencies of his allies, he might have been able to take over the country like the Taliban did in Afghanistan last year.

Putin underestimated Ukraine. The country's troops have resisted hard and held their cities against the Russians. Thousands of Russians were killed, enemy planes were downed and hundreds of armored vehicles and tanks were destroyed by the soldiers of Kyiv.

Zelenskiy was underestimated by Putin.

Zelenskiy, a former comedian and actor with humble roots, is running for president on an anti-corruption platform after playing a history teacher elected as president on an anti-corruption platform in the sitcomServant of the People.

Zelenskiy isn't perfect, but he isn't cut from the same cloth as those who made billions in shady business enterprises. His ascent to the presidency seems to have been driven by a desire to make things better.

The leader of Ukraine is promising to fight against a military power. He's a democratically elected president who wasn't a cynical appointee of some other country and wasn't someone seeking the presidency to enrich themselves.

Zelenskiy didn't get on the first plane out of Kyiv because of the danger to his life. Putin is not speaking metaphorically when he talks about decapitating the Ukrainian government. Zelenskiy said in a video posted to social media that the president is Putin's top target.

Zelenskiy wore a khaki T-shirt and jacket, despite reports of offers of safety in France and the U.S.

We are here. We are in the city of Kyiv. Zelenskiy said in a video that they are defending Ukraine. In the clip, he is surrounded by his Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, his chief of staff, and the head of the ruling party.

Zelenskiy told Ukrainians in the video that they aren't running and are fighting. People are fighting.

In 2021, Putin expected Afghanistan. He got Afghanistan in 1979. Ukrainians are not welcoming back an old friend. Their president is digging in for war. The army is fighting. Western sanctions are hitting Putin and his cronies, who were content to keep him in power, but who now stand to lose billions.

The Kremlin isn't involved in a coup in Ukraine anymore. It is trying to become an occupying force. It's a much more difficult proposition for a country with a lot of money to see the problem with external forces trying to impose ideologies. You are staring down the barrel of a lengthy battle that isn't easy to win.

How do you control a country of 44 million people who suddenly have something to believe in? How do you keep your own people on board?

The Ukrainians will be more resistant than ever to any Kremlin stooge, and will fight back as they did in the Maidan revolution of 2014, it is clear. Ukrainians don't have any nostalgia for the Soviets. They know that the model for the reforged USSR is based on oppression, murder and gangs.

Russians, who have been doped up, are now seeing their favorite singers, tennis players and actors speak up about what is now a hot war. They are seeing photos of bombed apartment blocks and dead children. This isn't going to be a walkover.

There is a genuine danger to Putin that he has underestimated the opposition he could face with a war against people who most Russians don't see as enemies. He is also facing metropolitan protesters. He humiliated his spy chief in public, lost billions of dollars, and could have to deal with thousands of mothers who have been traumatised by his actions. For a paranoid former spy, always alive to risks, he now appears very confident that no one from this growing base of foes can threaten him.

The war should be stopped immediately, according to a Communist Party member. For Russia to become a shield so that the people of Donbass are not bombed.

The effect of the Western sanctions will start to be felt by ordinary Russians.

Russians know how to suffer. They are used to it. These are not hypothetical things, they are historical things. Those who were born in the 80s remember being cold and hungry, as well as empty shelves and petrol pumps. Russians were suffering for the good of the Soviet Union.

Will Russians suffer for Putin and his cronies? Will they suffer for a man who lives in a golden palace and hasn't been seen for days?

How long will Russians buy into this war despite what their TVs are telling them? How long will they watch the videos of the Ukrainian soldiers?

Ukrainians are suffering for freedom. The man who stayed in Kyiv to fight with them is suffering. The man who rejected the U.S. offer said he needed bullets, not a ride.

POLITICO Europe has a contributing editor named Zoya Sheftalovich. She moved to Australia after the fall of the USSR.