Russian space director’s wild threats could have real implications for the ISS

The announcement of new sanctions against Russia provoked a strong reaction from the head of Russia's space program, who seemed to threaten that the restrictions would destroy Russia's partnership with NASA and lead to the demise of the International Space Station. NASA was concerned about what it would do if the Russians pulled out of the program, since they are known for their bluster and provocative statements.

The new sanctions were announced by President Joe Biden on Thursday in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. In response, the head of Russia's state space corporation fired off a series of threatening statements about how the sanctions could affect the program. He claimed that without Russia, the space station would not be fixed, and that the space station could come crashing down on the US, Europe, India, or China.

There is some truth to what he is saying. The International Space Station is controlled by Russian technology and periodically boosted to its proper position around Earth. If the Russians walk away, NASA will have to come up with a new solution to keep the station on the right path in space. It would probably take several years for NASA to come up with an alternate solution.

The Russians rely on NASA to keep the space station active. The space agency is solely responsible for generating electricity for the entire vehicle, and NASA also helps to control the space station. The relationship between NASA and Roscosmos is a good one, and either party leaving would cause trouble.

There is no reason to worry about the demise of the ISS. The space station is still being operated by NASA and the State Space Corporation. No changes will be made to the agency's support for ongoing operations in the ground station.

There are a number of important events planned for the month of October. On March 18th, three Russian cosmonauts will join the seven-person crew already on the International Space Station, according to NASA. The crew includes two cosmonauts, four NASA astronauts, and one German astronaut. On March 30th, Mark Vande Hei and two other people will return to Earth in a Soyuz capsule. Vande Hei will rely on Russia for his safe return.

Despite the need for cooperation right now, there are some frightening statements made by the head of the Russian space agency. If there is a complete rift, he painted a grim future scenario for the space station.

Explain to President Biden that the correction of the station's orbit, its avoidance of dangerous rendezvous with space garbage, is produced exclusively by the engines of the space station. A 500-ton structure can be dropped to India and China. Do you want to hurt them? The risks are yours because the ISS does not fly over Russia.

A lot of people tried to figure out the meaning of the message, with some wondering if he was threatening to de-orbit the space station. It seems more likely that the station could fall onto one of these countries if Russia doesn't step in to protect it. The station passes over parts of Russia, but mostly along the country's southern border.

Image: NASA

It sounds scary, but it is not without merit. The altitude of objects in Earth's low-Earth-Orbit is affected by decay over time and they need to be adjusted to maintain their trajectory. Russia's cargo spaceships, called Progress, are used to boost the station's altitude and maintain its trajectory around Earth.

The Progress spaceship will use their onboard thrusters to give the station a little nudging, either to change the altitude or move out of the way of debris. The Zvezda module is one of the ways Russia can boost the International Space Station. Russia's new Nauka science module accidentally fired and spun up the entire space station in July. The space station's attitude can sometimes be controlled with the help of the station's thrusters and Progress spaceship. Normally, NASA takes care of that with the use of what are known as Control Moment Gyros, spinning wheel devices that don't use propellant and use momentum to control the station's position. The gyros can get saturated over time according to Hale, and the Russian thrusters are used to help with adjustments when the gyros become limited.

A new solution would be needed if Russia's capabilities were not present. Some online commenters wondered if the American cargo space capsule, like the Dragon or Cygnus, could be used to boost the station like the Progress ships do. There is a Cygnus at the station right now, and in April it will test out a new capability for the space station. The Dragon and the Cygnus are not meant to be long-term solutions.

The thought of the International Space Station falling to Earth is going to have to happen someday. The station can't stay in space forever. Plans are already being made for how the station will be destroyed when it is no longer needed. The station will be brought down in a controlled manner over a region that is not populated. NASA wants to make sure the safety of people on the ground is protected, since parts of the International Space Station are likely to survive the descent through Earth's atmosphere.

The current plan for de-orbiting the space station relies on Russia. NASA outlined a concept in January that would involve docking three Russian Progress ships to the International Space Station and using the thrusters on those vehicles to help guide the station down into the atmosphere in a safe way. Without Russia's cooperation, that plan will have to be changed.

If the Russians left us up there to our own devices, we would put an emergency program together to de-orbit the station.

The easiest and safest path forward is to keep the station running and then bring it down safely. Biden said there is a complete breakdown in US-Russia relations. The countries partnership in civil space has not been completely extended by the rupture so far. In the meantime, we continue to analyze the new US sanctions to detail our response.