Parliamentary reverse leaves Johnson's Brexit plan in limbo

This was a good news/bad news day for Boris Johnson. The good news was that for the very first time the House of Commons has given its in-principle support to a Brexit withdrawal agreement. This is a major psychological step and one on which few would have bet even two weeks ago. Not only did the prime minister win, he won by 30 votes.

The bad news is that, by voting down his insultingly truncated timetable designed to secure passage of the legislation in just three days, MPs have almost certainly pushed Brexit beyond the October 31 deadline that Mr Johnson said was inviolate. More important than a few days slippage is that they now have the time to pursue some seriously wrecking amendments to the bill.

Fear of this is what pushed Number 10 into its now rather typically intemperate threat to pull the whole bill if it lost that vote and to force an election. In fact, MPs' rejection of the ludicrously short timetable was entirely reasonable. They would have been remiss to do otherwise. One cannot understate this government's ability to shoot itself in the foot with its parliamentary tactics but, with a majority of 30 on the second reading of this legislation, Mr Johnson would be foolish to pull the bill now. It would be snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

Speaking after the vote, Mr Johnson in fact stopped short of that threat, saying only that he would pause the legislation until EU leaders had decided on an extension. His new ultimatum is that he will not continue unless that extension is short and he is counting on the EU playing ball. The first noises from Brussels were not encouraging for him. Donald Tusk said he would recommend a longer extension to the end of January. Mr Johnson's spinners say in this case he will seek an election - though he needs opposition consent to secure it.

The Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn had offered to agree a more suitable timetable, but the prime minister ignored the offer. This was churlish and possibly self-defeating. If he does wish to progress he will need to reach agreement with the opposition. To go for the election before he knows the legislation would fail seems a perverse strategy.

For all his attachment to the Brexit deadline Mr Johnson's attempt to allow just three days to scrutinise one of the most important measures ever to come before parliament was unnecessarily antagonistic. His insistence on the October 31 date is entirely political. Brexit has taken so long that most leavers will forgive another two weeks' delay if that is what it takes to get it over the line.

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While the win on the second reading of the legislation is a big moment, the defeat over the timetable motion showed he is still not guaranteed victory. Indeed he may have concluded that it showed he does not have the votes to take his legislation all the way through. The bill can still be lost at any point. It can also be amended so heavily that he decides to pull the legislation. His victory in the first vote was due to 19 Labour MPs who backed his deal in principle, but a number of them are likely to back amendments he does not wish to see. He has also clearly lost Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist party, who feel he threw them overboard to get a deal.

There are several dangerous amendments, including an attempt to attach a second referendum to the deal and - even more of a risk for the government - a Labour plan to amend the deal to insist that the UK negotiate continued membership of the customs union.

So a fierce battle still lies ahead despite, after years of setbacks, the Brexit process finally advancing.

But decisions can no longer be delayed. If he sticks with his legislation, Mr Johnson may be within touching distance of Brexit. If he can keep the extension flexible or limited to only two or three weeks, he may conclude that it is better to swallow his pride for the wider win. With a possible extension to January Labour has time to force the election; and Tory strategists may conclude that an election before Brexit offers a better chance of victory than one after a long delay.

The upshot is that what should really have been a moment of celebration for Brexiters is now just another evening of uncertainty and limbo in British politics. Logic suggests that, while he has the chance of success, Mr Johnson should accept the delay and press on to secure his deal. But logic has not always been the governing emotion in this process.