A windfall of revenue from resource royalties is helping the province balance the books for the second time in a decade.
According to the latest fiscal plan from the province, a surge in oil revenues and a rebound in economic activity will lead to balanced budgets over the next few years.
According to the new budget presented by the Finance Minister, there will be a deficit of $3.2 billion for the year ending March 31, but there will be surpluses in each of the next three years.
A windfall of revenue from resource royalties is helping the province balance the books for the second time in a decade. Over the next three years, the province is expecting a $500 million surplus in 2022-23, $900 million in fiscal 2024, and $700 million in fiscal 2025.
Total revenue is expected to reach $61.7 billion this year, a dramatic $18 billion upward swing from what was predicted in the depths of the pandemic last February, driven primarily by rising non-renewable resource revenues and income tax receipts as a result of increased employment and household income growth.
Cash flows and activity in the energy sector have been boosted by higher oil prices.
Oil prices have strengthened to levels not seen since 2014
Travis Toews
Even as the province's energy industry recovers, the economy is becoming more diverse with investment in sectors such as digital technology, finance and hydrogen manufacturing.
Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product is expected to grow to $390 billion in five years, according to the province.
We have recovered all of the jobs lost during the economic crisis, but we have added 33,000 more, according to Toews.
This trend is expected to continue with projected employment growth of around four per cent.
We've not only recovered all the jobs lost during the pandemic and economic crisis, but we've added 33,000 more
Travis Toews
The royalty structure of the province is very sensitive to changes in energy prices.
I am very thankful that we have a lot of money coming from our energy industry.
The second highest amount of non-renewable resource revenue has been recorded by the government.
In 2022-23, total revenue is expected to reach C$62.6 billion, and then climb to $63.9 billion in fiscal 2025.
The province expects the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil to average US$70 per barrel in 2022-23, before falling to US$66.50 per barrel in 25.
According to the province, taxpayer-supported debt will reach $97 billion by the end of the year. The current fiscal year's net debt-to-GDP ratio is estimated at 18.3 per cent, down from previous estimates of 24.5 per cent.
For the time being, it appears that the province won't be aggressively paying down debt in the future.
In 2022-23, taxpayer-supported debt is forecast to be $94.7 billion, and will grow to 97 billion in fiscal 2025.
Significant spending initiatives were primarily aimed at shoring up the province's healthcare system, though a number were also aimed at industrial and economic development.
A capital grant of $175 million has been set aside for carbon capture and storage initiatives.
The Technology Innovation and Emissions Reduction (TIER) Fund will get an additional $305 million over the next four years.
More than $600 million will be invested over the next three years on expanding employment opportunities and addressing skills shortages.
If regulated natural gas companies charge regulated monthly natural gas rates above $6.50 per gigajoule, the monthly rebate will be triggered and will help households, farms, and small industrial and commercial operations with rising utility bills.
The budget earmarked funds for the development of the hydrogen and mineral industries. Over the next three years, the Energy Regulator will receive $41 million to establish new regulatory frameworks for mineral resources.
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