The first half of the NBA season was filled with memorable dunks, shots and finishes. The song is called "2. The NBA's Eastern Conference is deeper than it has been in decades, setting up a wild sprint to the playoffs over the final seven weeks of the regular season. With five teams within 2.5 games of first place in the conference, and just six games separating sixth through 11th place, teams will be swapping spots in the table on a nightly basis. Even though the Brooklyn Nets are currently in eighth place, they will be playing in the play-in tournament. The biggest trade of the season, the James Harden - Ben Simmons swap between the Nets and 76ers, continues to reverberate across the league, and will require both teams to adjust to the arrival of big-name stars over the next several weeks. The upshot of that? It should be a lot of fun to see how the playoffs play out. The 12 teams with a chance to make the playoffs are listed in order of their conference standing. We last saw them. Going into the break, Miami was rolling. They won six of their past seven and had found a strong rhythm playing behind Jimmy Butler and a solid core of guys who play like him. Playoff and title projections:
Caesars' Eastern Conference odds: +550
Caesars title odds: +1100
FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: 9%
1. Miami Heat (38-21)
The most important moment of the season so far: The Heat won 11 of 14 games during a stretch in December and January without Bam Adebayo. They were able to navigate through the tough times and continue to rack up wins, which made them the top team in the East heading into the break.
The Nets are at the Heat on March 26. This game could be a preview of what will happen in May. A healthy Nets squad with Kevin Durant, Simmons, and Irving will be in town for a game.
The key for this veteran bunch is being able to stay healthy. The Heat have a variety of players who play and think about the game with the same tenaciousness that Butler does. One of the main questions for Miami as it heads into the playoffs will be who will be able to create offense besides Tyler Herro. They will need the 35-year-old to help, as they have done some of that in the past.
Nick Friedell.
We last saw them. The Bulls entered the break with a five-game winning streak on the back of a hot-shooting DeMar DeRozan. In seven straight games, DeRozan has scored 35 points on 50% shooting, becoming the first player in NBA history to do that.
Playoff and title projections: Caesars' Eastern Conference odds: +1500 Caesars title odds: +3000
FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: 0.5%
The most important moment of the season so far is when DeRozan hits back-to-back game-winners on New Year's Eve and New Year's Day. During the first half, there were a few highlight reel moments, but becoming the first player in NBA history to hit buzzer-beaters on consecutive nights embodies the exceptional fit he has been in Chicago so far.
The Bulls held off the Kings for their fifth straight victory.
There is a must-see game left on the schedule. Several members of the Bulls organization were angry at the foul that resulted in Alex Caruso breaking his wrist in the last game between the two teams. The second one should have a little more edge.
The Bulls did not make a move at the trade deadline because of their belief in the team. It will be important if the Bulls can get there before the end of the season. They lost both Lonzo Ball and Caruso to extended injuries during a one-week span, but both players along with second-year forward Patrick Williams are eyeing returns in mid-March. How quickly they can get on the floor, get up to speed and revive a struggling defense could make the difference.
The man is named Jamal Collier.
We last saw them. The 76ers had a wild final few days before the break. They introduced James Harden, lost big at home to the Celtics, then picked up a huge road win in Milwaukee to head into the break on a high note.
Playoff and title projections: Caesars' Eastern Conference odds: +340 Caesars title odds: +650
FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: 7%
The Ben-James Harden swap was the most important moment of the season. Suddenly, the 76ers went from being down an All-Star and wondering how they would replace him, to getting Harden back with Morey forming arguably the league's toughest 1-2 scoring punch with Embiid.
The Nets are at the 76ers on March 10. When Simmons and the Nets come to Wells Fargo Center to face the 76ers, what else could this be? The rest of the regular season is the most anticipated game in the NBA.
How will Harden fit into the rest of the season? The 76ers have overachieved because of what has been the best season of Embiid's career. Between now and the start of the playoffs, the 76ers will have to get used to one of the league's biggest and most ball-dominant stars.
Tim Bontemps.
The Ben Simmons trade and finding a new gear was discussed by the two people.
We last saw them. The Cavs dropped their last two games before the break, but it didn't stop the surge for the biggest surprise contender in the conference. It was the first time since the end of December that the Cavs have lost multiple games in a row.
Playoff and title projections: Caesars' Eastern Conference odds: +2500 Caesars title odds: +5000
FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: < 0.1%
The most important moment during the first half of the season was the arrival of Evan Mobley in Cleveland. The No. 3 overall draft pick has made himself the favorite for rookies of the year with 14.9 points, 8.1 rebound and 1.6 blocks per game, while helping anchor a defense that ranks fourth in the league.
The 76ers are at the Cavs on April 3. The defense and front court of the Cavs will be tested in each meeting with the 76ers and Embiid. Philadelphia will have Harden in the lineup by then, so this game could provide a solid measuring stick for the upstart team as Cleveland prepares for its return to playoff basketball.
What kind of impact will Caris LeVert have? The team made a move before the deadline to pick up LeVert, because they lost two of their top three guards to season-ending injuries. He has played four games for his new team so far, but if he can help take some of the playmaking and scoring burden off of All-Star guard Darius Garland, Cleveland could have a chance to go from pleasant surprise to making noise in the playoffs.
The person said that it was Collier.
We last saw them. In the last game before the All-Star break, Antetokounmpo was going back and forth with Embiid. After winning five of six games, including their West Coast swing earlier this month, the Bucks dropped three of four before the break.
Playoff and title projections: Caesars' Eastern Conference odds: +300 Caesars title odds: +600
FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: 13%
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The most important moment of the season so far is the opening night victory over the Nets by the Bucks. The Bucks would spend all of the first half shuffling players in and out because of the lack of playing time for Lopez. They needed 24 different lineups to play 60 games.
There is a must-see game left on the schedule. The winner of this year's Most Valuable Player award could be decided by this game. It could be Milwaukee's first chance to see Philadelphia with Harden in the lineup.
Count the Bucks among the teams hoping to get healthy before the playoffs begin. Lopez and Pat Connaughton are expected to return before the end of the regular season. The strength of Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, and Jrue Holiday was enough to carry the Bucks for most of the first half.
The person said that it was Collier.
We last saw them. Although Boston dropped its final game before the All-Star break, it has been a banner few weeks for the franchise, which has won 11 of its last 13 games and outscored teams by more than 250 points. The season has suddenly been filled with a lot of excitement.
Playoff and title projections: Caesars' Eastern Conference odds: +1100 Caesars title odds: +2500
FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: 21%
The return of Marcus Smart could be the most important moment of the season, but it was the acquisition of Derrick White that was the most significant. White is the kind of player the Celtics needed, one who can play both ends of the court and make smart decisions with the ball. White has quickly become a fixture in Boston's closing lineup.
There is a must-see game left on the schedule. There will be less than two weeks to go in the regular season when Miami comes to town at the end of March. It could be a preview of the playoffs.
For the rest of the season, the Celtics have looked like one of the NBA's elite teams. Will things start to backslide or is that real? Boston is known for its 3-point shooting. If healthy, the Celtics have an elite defense. It is unclear if they can hit enough shots to take advantage of it.
Bontemps
We last saw them. Toronto dropped two of its final three games before the break, but has gone 18-8 since then, revitalizing its season and going from a team hoping to get into the play-in tournament to one hoping to avoid it by finishing among the top six in the East. Toronto has made its blend of athletes surrounding All-Star guard Fred VanVleet work, and it has made for an entertaining season north of the border.
Playoff and title projections: Caesars' Eastern Conference odds: +4000 Caesars title odds: +8000
FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: 0.3%
The most important moment during the first half of the season was beating the LA Clippers. It would have been impossible to know at the time, but that win started Toronto's season. After a brief lull in January, the Raptors won six in a row and then eight in a row.
There is a must-see game left on the schedule. Miami visits for the second time this season in what could be Kyle Lowry's first game back in Toronto since leaving after nine seasons this summer. The first game in Toronto was missed by the greatest player in franchise history, because he was away for personal reasons. If fans are able to be in the stands by then, you can expect a big celebration for the return of the champion point guard.
Can the Raptors hold up? Nick Nurse has leaned on his stars. Scottie Barnes and Gary Trent Jr. are both inside the top 25 in the NBA in minutes played per game. The Raptors have a chance to be a threat if those players stay healthy. If they are not? Things will fall apart quickly. The Raptors have been playing in empty arenas for weeks, so it's worth keeping an eye on whether fans will be allowed in the building soon. It would be a boost to the team.
Bontemps
Stephen A. Smith thinks James Harden has more questions to answer than Ben Simmons.
We last saw them. The Nets had a lot of drama surrounding them heading into the break after trading Harden, but they finally appeared to turn things around as they won two of three, which included a 28-point come-from-behind win against the Knicks.
Playoff and title projections: Caesars' Eastern Conference odds: +300 Caesars title odds: +600
FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: 0.9%
The Harden trade was the most important moment of the season. The All-Star guard wanted out as the losses piled up, which led to the deal that sent him to the 76ers and brought Simmons, Curry, and two first-round picks to Brooklyn. The Nets are still confident they can contend for a title this season, but the trade changed their course in the middle of a trying season in which they are still dealing with Durant's knee injury and Irving's part-time status.
The Nets are at the 76ers on March 10. If Simmons is ready to play, this is arguably the most interesting game left on the NBA's regular-season calendar. Simmons will hear it from the Philadelphia crowd. On top of that, both Irving and KD should be on the floor to face off against Harden and Embiid.
What happens with Irving's playing time will be the pivot point for the rest of the season. Nobody knows if or when New York City mayor Eric Adams will roll back the city's vaccine mandate. The Nets have a chance to contend for a title if it does happen. It will be very difficult for Brooklyn to reach its ultimate goal if it doesn't, because Irving can only play in away games
Friedell.
We last saw them. The Hornets scored a franchise-record 158 points. The Hornets beat the Lakers two days later to improve to 28-22 on the season. They have lost nine of their last 10 games, including two prior to the All-Star break in overtime and double overtime.
Playoff and title projections: Caesars' Eastern Conference odds: +10000 Caesars title odds: +20000
FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: < 0.1%
Charlotte is hoping the acquisition of center Montrezl Harrell can help turn things around. Since he was acquired at the deadline, he has averaged 17.8 points and 7.5 boards on 65.1% shooting.
Hawks at Hornets, March 16 is a must-see game. The Hornets are 2.5 games back of the eighth spot held by Brooklyn and are percentage points behind the ninth spot held by the Hawks. If Charlotte can beat Atlanta, it will tie the season series and prevent the Hornets from losing a play-in seeding.
Friday, Feb. 25
Heat at Knicks, 7:45 p.m.
Clippers at Lakers, 10:05 p.m.
All times Eastern.
After the All-Star break, the Hornets have a chance to get off on the right foot with five of their first seven games at home. If LaMelo Ball continues to play at his All-Star level and the team gets going, they could make their push sooner rather than later. The Hornets will get a much-needed boost when Gordon Hayward returns.
Andrew Lopez.
We last saw them. Atlanta has won 11 of their last 16 games to get back into the play-in conversation. They won a big game against Cleveland when Trae Young scored another 40 points.
Playoff and title projections: Caesars' Eastern Conference odds: +5000 Caesars title odds: +10000
FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: 0.3%
The Hawks traded away Cam Reddish, Solomon Hill, and a second-round pick in the first half of the season for a protected first-round pick and Kevin Knox. It freed up minutes on the wing and gave the Hawks a pick to potentially use down the road to build the roster.
There is a must-see game left on the schedule. Fans of Young were unable to see him return to Madison Square Garden on Christmas Day due to health and safety protocols, so this will be his first trip back since the playoffs last year. He could be on pace for an encore against the Knicks.
The Hawks have a tough slate after the break, including games against Toronto, Boston and Chicago. The recent foot injury that kept John Collins out of the final three games of the break is something to watch, but the Hawks have shown they are capable of going on winning streaks. The big stretch under McMillan that led to the 2020-21 conference finals showed he can push the right buttons down the stretch.
Lopez
We last saw them. The Wizards beat the Nets for the second time in five games with Rui Hachimura having his best game of the season with 20 points. Washington has won three of its past five but is still waiting for Kristaps Porzingis to make his Wizards debut since he was traded to the team.
Playoff and title projections: Caesars' Eastern Conference odds: +50000 Caesars title odds: +100000
FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: < 0.1%
Losing Bradley Beal for the season has changed the outlook for a team that started the season 10-3 but was struggling when he played his last game. Washington tried to address its chemistry issues by trading away some of its players.
Mavericks at Wizards is a must-see game. Dallas comes to town and sets up a reunion between Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis. The relationship between the two ended at the trade deadline when the Mavericks traded Kristaps Porzingis and the two seasons remaining on his five-year, $158-million deal to the Wizards. If he is healthy, he will be motivated to face his old team.
The Wizards looked like a team ready for the season to end just days before the trade deadline after their blazing start in October and November. Despite losing Beal for the season, the Wizards still have a chance at the play-in. They will need a healthy Porzingis down the stretch.
Ohm Youngmisuk.
Stephen A. Smith called for a boycott of the Knicks after they lost at home to the Nets.
We last saw them. It has been a rough season for the team. The Knicks surprised the league and vaulted to the fourth seed in the East last year, but they have come crashing down to earth in a season filled with inconsistency. The Knicks had lost 13 of their last 16 games.
Playoff and title projections: Caesars' Eastern Conference odds: +25000 Caesars title odds: +50000
FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: < 0.1%
The Knicks' entire first half was symbolized by Julius Randle running down the floor with his thumb in the direction of the Madison Square Garden faithful. He played at an All-Star level last season but was unable to duplicate it. After the season ends, he will be remembered for letting his frustration out.
The Nets will play the Knicks on April 6. Will the Knicks still be in the picture? Will Irving be able to play at the Garden? How does Rose look now that he's back? The final cross-town game of the season has a lot of questions.
If the Knicks want to make a push down the stretch, they will need more intensity on the defensive end. They have to hope that Rose will come back at a high level. The Knicks need him to be the leader of the second unit when he's healthy.
Friedell.
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