The two sides arrive daily at Roger Dean Stadium and break into camps, the players huddle in the parking lot for a few minutes, some fielding requests for autographs from fans nearby, as the league sets up inside. After more than two months of looking past each other, offering proposals and counterproposals that have gone nowhere, Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association have taken their negotiations to Florida, where there are signs that talks have started to move in the right direction. The owners of the Rockies and Padres joined the players in attendance over the first two days of the season. The MLB season will start on March 31st, but the sides are still far apart on key economic issues, and the clock is running out to reach a deal before the season starts. Over the past week, we asked agents and executives not involved in the day-to-day talks what they believe would be a realistic compromise on each of the biggest issues. Here is what they told us. . The union wants young players to be paid more. It proposes two ways to do it, the first being to get them to arbitration more quickly. After two years of service time, only 22% of players are eligible to be traded. The last proposal from the union included a bonus pool of over $100 million for the top players who aren't yet eligible for arbitration. The league is steadfast on keeping Super 2s at 22% and has agreed to the new pool, but offered just $20 million. Most players have needed three years to reach an agreement with the owners, according to one agent. The bonus pool would allow the league to recognize that the best first- or second-year players deserve more than a slight raise. Raising the amount of funds is a commonsense solution that will benefit the best players, not just those who have reached two years of service time. One official said that both owners and players should get behind that. One suggestion was to include the amount of money in the pool within negotiations, and let the union decide how to split it. Among the top 30? Top 150? That is up to them. New money into the system is a clear win for the players. Baseball is behind other sports in minimum salaries. In the year 2021, it was $570,000. NHL rookies make a lot of money. It is incumbent on the league to raise the minimums with the career span of a player less than five years. The agents prefer a $1 million minimum. The league needs to raise this figure to keep up with the influx of cash that owners are getting from other additions this year. The players entering the league for the first time will be wearing those patches. Their careers could last 10 years or two. Several executives even acknowledged that starting them with a number that will raise the average salary of the entire union membership is fair. It shouldn't be a cent below $700,000. The players say that the cycle of rebuilding teams has gotten out of hand. It takes up to half the league out of the bidding for players in the off-season. There is no incentive for a team to bring up top prospects and give them a year of service time if they are not going to win a game. The issue is much more prevalent for teams entering a season with no chance of competing because the contender tends to hold players down for a few weeks in order to keep them from getting to free agency for an extra season. A draft lottery that would keep the worst team in baseball from getting the top pick is one of the ideas being considered. MLB added a fourth team as part of the negotiations. A new season is about to start. Get ready to dominate your league.
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Service-time manipulation and tanking
Many believe that the players won't make as much progress as they want. For players who get awards early in the season, they want flexibility on how service time is calculated. Some executives think the union should accept the league's proposal, which gives out extra draft-pick incentives for keeping top prospects on the big league clubs.
With everything else on the line, there isn't enough energy to fix the tanking issue in one negotiation, and the league has offered only one along with a significant tax. Small-market teams wouldn't vote for it.
According to sources on the players side, a four-team system isn't enough to disincentivize tanking. The union would like to see an eight-team lottery to prevent a race to the bottom of the table.
There isn't a great way to avoid the tanking cycles without payroll floors and caps. Many believe the players need built-in ways to make money, like the pre-arb pool.
The first threshold of competitive balance tax was $210 million. The owners proposed a slight raise throughout the life of the next agreement, starting with $214 million and ending with $222 million. The league wants to raise the financial penalties for teams that go over the tax. The union believes that the threshold is too low and that harsher penalties will make teams spend less. It wants it to go as high as $245 million.
The union wants to see less revenue sharing with the smaller markets in order for the bigger teams to keep more of their money and spend up to the CBT.
The issue is one of the biggest sticking points in negotiations. It affects big- and small-market teams, as well as star players who want to keep as many bids as possible. The union should drop its request to change the revenue-sharing system and the league should raise the competitive balance tax.
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It would be harder for the St. Louis Cards to compete with the richer teams if they had a big raise in the CBT. This move would allow teams that want to spend on a player, not a tax, to do so.
The league's last offer of $222 million is a good starting point for the first threshold. The league could still offer harsher penalties than the last one, but they should only be used on higher thresholds, not the first one.
Baseball's revenue is up so payrolls should be as well. Why tax a team that wants to spend? Competitive balance is at stake, but no one is telling the small-market teams to have small payrolls.
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