Imagine if Mike Krzyzewski lifted the NCAA championship trophy on April 4, a storybook ending to a legendary college basketball coaching career that has spanned 47 seasons and would, in this scenario, include a sixth national title. The Duke Blue Devil could deliver it to him. A projected 3-seed come Selection Sunday is what the Coach K's team is currently projected to be.
Before the postseason march begins, Wednesday night's trip to Charlottesville to face the Virginia Cavaliers. The Blue Devil lost to the UVa by a point in February, and they have a chance to get revenge. This game is crucial for the NCAA tournament hopes of Tony Bennett's squad, who are also mathematically alive for a fourth conference title in five years.
With that in mind, the college basketball team of Myron Medcalf, Jeff Borzello, John Gasaway and Joe Lunardi made their predictions for Wednesday's Sonic Blockbuster game, and they also offered their assessment of both teams.
Mark Williams got help from Paolo Banchero.
Duke could win the national championship for me. I don't think they are in the top group yet.
A month ago, the list of teams that could win a national championship was much longer. Kentucky, Arizona and Gonzaga are starting to separate themselves from the pack. Next are Duke, Auburn and Purdue. I think the national champion will emerge from that group of teams. I don't think either of them will make it to the Final Four this season.
Paolo Banchero is the most important player for Duke. The stars are what we think about when we think about the NCAA tournament. The role players matter and sometimes lead their teams on big runs, but this is a critical moment for the projected top 10 pick in the NBA draft. Duke will go as far as he can. The Final Four could be between Oscar Tshiebwe, Ochai Agbaji, Bennedict Mathurin, and Jaden Ivey. When the lights come on in March, Banchero has to show up to give Duke a chance to win a national title.
Borzello thinks that Kentucky and Arizona are the top three title candidates, followed by Duke. The Blue Dukes have next-level talent, their ability to defend the ball and the presence of Banchero, which makes them a high ceiling team in college basketball. I think they have found a solution that works with the two playmaking guys, as well as the one who starts in the lineup. Moore and Keels are capable of handling the ball. Duke has one of the bigger lineups in college basketball.
It sounds obvious, but I think the title hopes of the Blue Devil are dependent on Banchero. He is the best player on the team, the one who will have the ball in his hands late in the game. Duke has lost all four of its games this season by the final 65 seconds. If his jumper starts falling consistently, he becomes pretty much unguardable at the college level, because his outside shot hasn't come along as expected so far this season. A three-level scorer with his size and passing ability? That is the ultimate X factor come March.
The selection committee had the Blue Devil pegged as the last No. 2 seed in the NCAA's preview of the brackets this past weekend. Feels right. That is a solid national title contender, but not necessarily one in the top tier. Duke is among the next four out of possible champ. As young as they are, they already play excellent defense. The defense would be the top ranked unit in the conference if you ranked them by their conference play. 2? Wake Forest has a D.
Mark Williams is my Most Critical to Success Award winner. He is an outstanding rim defender, of course, but he and Paolo Banchero also do most of the defensive rebound for a team that isn't all that great at defensive rebound. Part of Duke's excellence on D has been out of its control as opponents have missed a lot of 3s. Williams' defensive thing in the paint will become even more important when that changes.
The storyline of a swan song NCAA title for Coach K and the Blue Duke is impossible to ignore. I am not buying it yet. If Duke runs the table and wins the conference tournament, what would that mean? It would be the equivalent of winning the Mountain West. Good, but not great.
When has the Blue Devil been great this season? It's great enough to win a national championship? It was close in the early win over Kentucky. At North Carolina? Yes, but that was not the same as the opponent. Does a national champion Duke team lose? Maybe. The Blue Dukes don't lose at home to Miami and they don't lose at home to Virginia.
The Blue Devil are barely on my list of national championship candidates. That should be good news for Duke fans.
Tony Bennett has earned a lot of respect throughout his career. If you get rid of the brand name, you will have a team that has lost to NC State, James Madison and Navy. I think most people agree that the only way to get into the NCAA tournament is to win the conference tournament. If Virginia loses to Duke on Wednesday, it will be true.
In the first game of the season, Moore and Banchero combined to shoot 6-for-18. Bennett has always been able to force the other guys to try to beat him, and he did that three weeks ago. Duke lost only one game in a nine-game stretch. The team is more focused. In recent games, Virginia has been very efficient on the offensive side. I think Virginia has a better chance of winning this game than going to Brooklyn and winning the title. This feels like a must-win game for Bennett.
Duke scored 67 and Virginia scored 60.
Tony Bennett's club has won five of its past six games, including road victories against Duke and Miami. It is hard to see the Cavaliers having a chance at Selection Sunday if they do not win over the Blue Devil on Wednesday. The top-of-the-line wins over Duke and Providence are nice, but the Virginia is just 1-8 against Quadrant 1 opponents, and they have three Quadrant 3 losses on top of that. Their NET is in the 80s, and their metrics are below average for a bubble team. Virginia needs a win.
The Cavaliers showed a couple of weeks ago that they have what it takes. When you ask what the formula is, they already know it, in theory: Slow the pace, pack the lane, force Duke to shoot perimeter jumpers, take care of the ball and try to get Mark Williams in foul trouble. It's difficult to generate consistent momentum if the Blue Devil are forced to play in the half court and mostly away from the rim. It's easier said than done.
Borzello prediction: Duke 66, Virginia 58.
The and-1 bucket has a person with it.
Yes, Gasaway. Finished. The road win against Duke and neutral-floor victory over Providence look great. The win at Miami is nice. Virginia is 3-3 in Quadrant 3 games, and a loss at home against the Blue Devil would drop this team to 17-11. For a group that beat the Blue Duke and Providence, it is surprisingly lackluster in terms of strength of record. They need this win or a run in the tournament. Wake Forest, North Carolina and Coach K's guys could be the most valuable opponents to defeat.
Duke is predicted to score 63 points.
Thank goodness for Providence because we wouldn&t be having this conversation. Virginia profiles as an NIT team. A second win over Duke would keep the Cavs relevant in the conference tournament.
The score prediction was Duke 68, Virginia 64.
All Rights Reserved © 2024
