China casts doubt on origin of rocket debris about to slam into the Moon

Image: STR/AFP via Getty Images

The piece of space debris that is about to slam into the Moon does not come from one of the nation's lunar missions, according to China. It's possible that China mixed up the debris from the original mission, as most evidence points to it being an old Chinese rocket.

Bill Gray, an astronomer and space tracker, predicted that the doomed space object would slam into the Moon on March 4th, and it has received a lot of attention over the last few weeks. Gray thought the object was a leftover piece of a rocket that was used to launch a satellite. Gray claimed that the debris was leftover from the Chang'e 5-T1 mission, which tested out technology needed to bring samples back from the Moon.

The conclusion that the object is a Chinese rocket has been supported by analysis from NASA and the University of Arizona. According to China's monitoring, the upper stage of the Chang e-5 mission rocket has fallen through the Earth. The statement was reported by Space News.

According to a transcript of the conference, Wang said that the rocket from the Chang e-5 mission burned up in the atmosphere. Gray and others claim that the rocket is from a separate flight. Chang 5-T1 was a mission that was supposed to launch in 2020. According to a new post by Gray, the booster from that mission actually fell back to Earth.

Space News says that the Space Force's 18th Space Control Squadron is responsible for tracking space debris and that the booster from Chang was burned up in Earth. Gray has an explanation for that discrepancy as well. The 18SPCS only gave one update on the rocket's trajectory after it was launched, and never again. Gray says that the rocket burned up is likely a prediction based on that one update.

If that is all they had to work with, then the re-entry date is a prediction a year ahead of time. Gray writes in his post that it's like trying to predict weather a year ahead of time. The US Space Command, which maintains the massive catalog of tracked space debris around Earth, did not respond to The Verge's request in time for publication. If we hear back, we will update.

Gray wondered if there was more than one object that went up with the 5-T1 mission. There is a second object that isn't cataloged. It would be surprising if there were more than one object that could explain what they are seeing.

All signs point to the rocket coming from China. Gray thinks that better tracking of deep space junk is needed. The 18SPCS is an official tracking entity that is more focused on tracking debris in lower orbits around Earth, as they post a significant risk to satellites and other assets we rely on every day. When it comes to objects like this that were launched into deep space and have spent a long time around Earth, no official agency is keeping an eye on them.

According to Gray, entities launching objects like this should make their positioning data public and someone should maintain it. Some care should be given to how these objects are discarded. A few simple steps would help.

No matter where it came from, one thing is certain: it is going to be dust on March 4th.