IPCC: Climate change report to sound warning on impacts

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A new report on the impacts of climate change will likely be the most worrying assessment yet of how rising temperatures affect every living thing.

This will be the second of three major reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

The conclusions will be published on 28 February.

The study will look at impacts on cities and coastal communities.

The latest research on warming is reviewed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change every six or seven years. Their sixth assessment report is a set of three.

The basic science, the scale of impacts and the options for tackling the problem are looked at by three working groups.

The report will show that tackling climate change isn't about cutting emissions and hitting net zero in the future, but about dealing with short-term threats.

It is always the immediate that takes precedence. Mark Watts is the executive director of the C40 group, a network of around 100 major cities.

There are no city climate programme funds in the global south at the moment. Almost none of them are about adaptation. They are all trying to get poor countries that have relatively low emissions to reduce their emissions further, not about adapting to the impacts that they are already feeling.

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Scientists working on the report, who all volunteer for this work, review and write up thousands of papers to summarize the latest findings under the umbrella of the IPCC.

Upon reaching consensus, a short summary of their findings is published, after they meet with government officials to go through their findings line by line.

Some of the tipping points that are likely to be passed as the world warms are irreversible like the breakdown of the Greenland ice sheet.

Some of the technological solutions to climate change will be looked at in the report, but it is likely to be a waste of time trying to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

It will have a broader focus than just the science of climate change.

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Lagos is the most populated city in Africa with more than 24 million people, but it is also vulnerable to flooding and sea level rise. The problem of rubbish and waste in canals and rivers is making the situation worse. The city will have to deal with the changes brought about by a changing climate.

One of the things that needs to change in Lagos to reduce that flooding impact is actually to get a grip of the waste management system.

The report will talk about social justice and sustainable development more. It does talk about indigenous and traditional knowledge, not just published Western science.

This is about the impacts on people and nature, the risks they face and the limits to adaptation as well.

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The use of a key phrase in the text is at the center of a tussle between scientists and officials.

For years, developing countries have been trying to get the richer world to respond to the issue of loss and damage.

They define the phrase to mean the impacts of climate change that countries cannot adapt to, including severe weather such as major storms but also slow-onset events like sea level rise or desertification. Richer countries have long opposed the concept, fearing they could be held legally and financially responsible for centuries for the disruption caused by historic emissions of carbon dioxide. This issue has become a hugely divisive political issue within the global climate talks.

The scientists of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change want to use a slightly amended version of the term "losses and damages", which they say has a different meaning.

Officials from several richer governments attending the approval session objected because they feared that if the idea appeared in a key report, it would give support to those countries who want loss and damage to be the top priority for international negotiations.

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If rapid action is taken on cutting greenhouse gases and spending on helping people adapt to climate change is increased, the worst risks can be avoided.

According to co-chair Prof Hans-Otto Pörtner, this hope has to be measured against the reality of politics.

One key message has come out of previous reports - political will is the key to a sustainable future.