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Russian President Vladimir Putin announced in a combative, hourlong address on Monday that he will recognize the independence of eastern Ukraine.

Putin ordered the Russian military to conduct "peacekeeping operations" in the occupied Ukrainian territories.

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The big picture is that if Russia does not limit its operations to the areas held by the rebels, recognition could quickly evolve into war.

  • Analysts warn that Moscow could use attacks on its troops in eastern Ukraine as a pretext for a broader war.

  • Since independence, the rebels have waged a low-scale war against the Ukrainians with military support from Moscow.

  • The fighting has intensified since Thursday, with the Ukrainians accusing the rebels of shelling across the line of contact.

Western leaders swiftly denounced Putin's move as a violation of international law and Ukrainian sovereignty.

  • Jen Paski, the White House press secretary, said in a statement that the U.S. would not allow investment in the republics if Russia invaded.

  • European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President CharlesMichel said in a statement that his step is a blatant violation of international law. The Union will take action against those involved in this illegal act.

  • Boris Johnson, the British Prime Minister, said that Putin's move was a very bad sign. It is another sign that things are moving in the wrong direction.

  • Putin used his speech to argue that the West is responsible for the standoff and that Ukraine is not a separate country from Russia.

It is not clear whether the Russian peacekeepers will seek to secure the entire of the area they claim or only the territory they currently hold.

  • At a time when the White House continues to warn of an imminent, large-scale invasion, Putin's latest moves could be seen as a sign that his immediate military focus is on the east of the country.

  • Michael Kofman, an expert on Russia's military capabilities, believes it's more likely the first step in a broader military operation that won't be limited to the Donbas.

Mapbox/OSCE as of Feb. 14, 2022, and Will Chase/Axios as of Feb. 14, 2020.

Russia's state Duma voted last week to ask Putin to recognize the LNR as an independent state.

  • Before Russia's most senior officials took turns making the case for recognition in an extraordinary televised Security Council meeting, the leaders echoed that request.

  • U.S. and Ukrainian officials have dismissed as absurd the claims by the Kremlin that Ukraine is preparing for a military offensive in the east. There are more than 150,000 Russian troops on the borders.

Russia claimed that it had killed five Ukrainians with anti-tank weapons after their vehicles crossed into Russian territory. The head of Russia's intelligence service claimed that a Ukrainian soldier had been captured.

  • Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called on Russia to stop making fake products.

The Biden administration predicted that Putin would follow a similar path to Russia's.

  • They are choreographed in advance. TV Rain noted that Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu's watch showed a time five hours earlier than the Security Council meeting.

  • Two days before the videos were to be released, they had been recorded.

Biden and Putin are fighting to control the narrative.

The story has been updated with more information from Putin's televised address, Western leaders' reactions and information on the Russian president's decree.

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  • The EU and UK prepare similar moves amid alarm over Russian president's warnings of further action. Vladimir Putin's declaration that Russia will recognise the independence of the regions of eastern Europe that are not part of the EU was welcomed.

  • The White House said on Monday that President Biden would impose sanctions on the two Kremlin-backed regions in Ukraine after Putin said Russia would recognize them as independent. It could be a pretext for a larger Russian invasion.

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