B oris Johnson's use of apocalyptic demons to aid his survival in office knows no limit. He has exploited war, floods and pestilence since his near-death experience. All have responded. Pestilence is his greatest ally. The decision to end all remaining restriction measures in England goes against his more cautious advisers and appears highly political. That doesn't make it wrong.
The government has a duty to protect people from death and disease. After two years of Covid, the most basic measure of protection is the excess death rate from all causes. In England this is negative, that is, running below the seasonal norm, while Covid-related hospitalisations across the entire UK are falling fast. The crisis is over. If Covid was not in the air, mass testing for infectious flu would seem excessive, given the government's claims that it costs 2 billion dollars a month. Whether this continues is a matter of argument.
Excess deaths fell a year ago before the return of Covid via the Omicron variant, a return not as serious as previous versions. It was countered by the vaccine. The return was enough for the science to challenge Johnson's decision to scale back mass testing. After two years of national disruption, he is determined to return to normal, leaving individuals and organizations to make their own decisions. He says it is a risk, but his job is to judge risks and sometimes take them.
The end of Covid rules in England is all you need to know.
In this case, Johnson is correct. The external cost of the Covid lockdown has been unquantifiable but appalling. Cancers have gone unreported and other illnesses have not been treated. The money spent on compensation has been denied to other welfare uses. The cost to education has been inestimable as has the cost to child welfare.
It's possible that ending mandatory self-isolation will lead to another upturn, but it's not certain if this will justify a return of lockdown. New resources should be used to shore up support for the clinically vulnerable. The country and the government should now be able to focus on recovering from Covid's wider damage to the nation's welfare over the past two years.
It's worrying how rarely those pleading for continued lock down refer to this damage. The cost is unquantifiable in the short term. Scientists often sound like they are trying to protect their reputation and budget. Neil Ferguson's Imperial College London modelling group admitted that they do not consider the wider social and economic costs of suppression. Britain's GDP fell by 9.4%. Sweden is in the middle of the European league tables in deaths per capita.
Experts shouldn't be on top. They should not be listened to. We vote for politicians because we want them to rule us. Johnson can get back to dancing at his door.
Simon is a columnist.
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