There is a silver lining to the terrible winter of covid-19 in the U.S. The CDC data this week shows little flu activity in what has already been an incredibly mild season. It's not realistic to think that the seasonal flu will always be neutered, but it does suggest that we can do more to reduce its harms. There has been some recent increase in flu activity in a few areas, but according to the CDC's latest report, flu activity is low across the United States. The weekly percentage of doctor visits related to respiratory illness has continued to decline and is now below the baseline seen during a typical flu season. The cumulative hospitalization rate linked to the flu this winter is higher than it was last winter, but it is still lower than any of the previous flu seasons. The flu was non-existent during the winter 2014–2018, which was the peak of the covid-19 epidemic. Measures such as mask-wearing, a reduction in large public gatherings, and increased social distancing were used by the federal and state governments to combat the H1N1 flu. The measures slowed the spread of the coronaviruses, but they also slowed the seasonal flu. Many of the interventions had gone by the wayside by this winter. The flu appeared to return to its old form early on. The flu was much tamer than usual despite the occasional case of an unlucky co-infection with both the flu and the coronaviruses. According to the CDC's estimates, there have only been 2.3 million flu cases, 22,000 hospitalizations, and 1,300 deaths this winter, far below the numbers you would see from even the mildest flu seasons prior to the Pandemic. There is a chance that flu cases will go up, but this is about when the season ends. The first year of covid-19 has seen some measures, such as mask mandates, that have been avoided by some states. Survey data shows that most people still wear masks. It is likely that the pandemic shaped people's behavior without the need for explicit government rules. During the most recent Omicron-led surge, many workplaces extended or reinstituted remote work policies, sometimes due to sheer necessity as employees all got sick at the same time. Data shows that people stopped going to restaurants and other public places after Omicron. Only 40% of Americans got their flu shot this year, which is less than in the past, but it is still a good rate.
Even if it endangers people who remain at higher risk, many politicians, pundits, and even some public health experts want people to return to their normal routines sooner rather than later. We will have a winter that is ripe for the flu to spread. That isn't a status quo that we have to accept.
States might completely abandon mask mandates, but that doesn't mean that you can't wear masks in high-risk situations. If their workplace has paid sick leave policies, more people will choose to stay home from work. Hand washing, which doesn't seem to do much for covid-19 but can prevent the spread of the flu and common colds, might continue to enjoy a renaissance. It is possible to contain an outbreak in a nursing home. We may have improved flu vaccines in the future.
As covid-19 has shown us, there can be a limit to how much we can do. Even during a typical flu season, cases, hospitalizations, and deaths can vary widely, depending on many outside factors, like an inherently more contagious strain or a poorly matched vaccine. There are still strains of flu that can be spread between animals and humans. The past two winters have shown us that we don't have to deal with the misery of the flu every year. There can be a better future for us all.
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