The Mozilla building, Friday, Jan. 19, 2018, in San Francisco, California, Mozilla is the maker of the web browser Firefox. (Photo by Santiago Mejia/San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images)
Enlarge / The Mozilla building, Friday, Jan. 19, 2018, in San Francisco, California, Mozilla is the maker of the web browser Firefox. (Photo by Santiago Mejia/San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images)

At the end of 2008, the browser was flying high. Twenty percent of the 1.5 billion people online were using a browser. More than half of everyone going online in Indonesia, Macedonia, and Slovenia were using Firefox. Things aren't so rosy fifteen years later.

The browser has slid to less than 4% of the market on all devices. In the last couple years, what we've seen is actually a pretty substantial flattening.

Since it was launched from the shadows of Netscape, it has been key to shaping the web's privacy and security, with staff pushing for more openness online and better standards. The market share decline was accompanied by two rounds of layoffs. The lucrative search deal with Google is set to expire next year. A number of privacy-focused browsers are now competing on its turf, while new-feature misses have threatened its base. Industry analysts and former employees are concerned about the future of the company.

The fate of the web as a whole has larger implications. For a long time, it was the best way to keep Google Chrome in check. Since its release in 2008, Chrome has become synonymous with the web and has a huge influence on how people experience the internet. websites jumped to implement the publishing standard when it was launched. Similar plans to replace third-party cookies in Chrome, a move that will impact millions of marketers and publishers, are shaped in the image of the company.

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One former staff member at Mozilla who worked on browser development still works in the industry and says that chrome has won the desktop browser war. It is not reasonable for Firefox to win back any browser share at this point.

There is a complicated relationship between the two companies. They are also business partners. According to reports, the amount of money that is paid to Mozilla each year is in the range of $400 million per year. In its 2020 financial results, the most recent available, Mozilla listed its total revenue as $496 million, with royalties from search deals equaling $441 million. The royalties are important because of the other default search engine partners, such as Yandex Search in Russia. Each year, Apple is paid huge sums to ensure that it is the default search engine in the browser.

The deal withMozilla is expected to end in 2023. Over the course of the agreement, Firefox's market share has dropped around 1 percent. According to the company's own figures, its monthly active users have remained stable at 215 million. There is no guarantee that the same level of renewal will be offered by Google. Mozilla doesn't reveal details about its partners and negotiations with Google are still going on. Despite the layoffs, the financial statements from 2020 show that the company is in a good place.

For its long-term future, Mozilla and Firefox acknowledge that they need to change the way they make money. Since the beginning of the year, these efforts have increased. A paid premium subscription service is included in the company's read-it-later service Pocket. People can subscribe to two similar products. The company is placing ads on new tabs that are opened in the Firefox browser.

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The company says it expects its financial results to show new products contributing 14 percent of its revenue in 2021. The creation of a healthier business model is dependent on the independence of Google. Some of the new bets haven't worked out and can seem to be at odds with the wider privacy aims of the browser. A file-sharing service was shut down after being used to spread infections. The company put ads in the URL bar. The less said about the mid-2010s phones, the better.

Lourdes Turrecha, founder of Rise of Privacy Tech, says that a lot of browsers use privacy in their branding. Many of Chrome's competitors don't collect data about your browsing history or what you do online. The most privacy-preserving option is blocking tracking to varying degrees.

According to a system administrator who helps run the recommendation website Privacy Guides, Firefox's privacy credentials are as strong as any of its commercial rivals. There are a lot of privacy features that aren't enabled by default, which is unfortunate, but it at least gives you the option to enable those

The Focus browser, which ramps up privacy protections by default, is also run by Mozilla. She doesn't see the apps merging into one product, the two Firefox browsers have distinct use cases. Aragon says that while Firefox competes with other privacy-focused browsers, it hasn't necessarily been the first to introduce these features.