Earth's polar regions are feeling the effects of global warming. The South Orkney Islands have warmed since the 1950s according to a new study. Warming in the South Orkneys is more than global warming.

Plants are spreading as the islands warm.

The South Orkney Islands are about 600 km from the tip of the Antarctica Peninsula. Britain and Argentina both have claims to the group of islands. Argentina and Britain both have research stations in the South Orkneys.

A study shows that the climate is getting warmer and that the spread of plants on the island is getting more green. The journal Current Biology published a study on the Acceleration of Climate Warming and Plant Dynamics in Antarctica. Nicoletta Cannone is the lead author. Italy's Scienza e Alta Tecnologia.

The South Orkneys are in a polar climate even though they are separated from the rest of the world by 600 km. The summers are very cold and the majority of the islands are covered in ice. The South Orkneys seas are covered in ice from April to November.

The new study shows that things are changing. According to the report, the two species of plants on Signy Island responded to the climate change acceleration with an advance.

“This is the first evidence in Antarctica for accelerated ecosystem responses to climate warming, confirming similar observations in the Northern Hemisphere.”

From “Acceleration of climate warming and plant dynamics in Antarctica” by Cannone et al. 2022

The warming has not been a continuous trend. The years since the study began have seen one cooling period. Between 1999 and 2016 there was a short but intense cooling from the Antarctic Peninsula to the South Orkney Islands.

The air temperature on Signy Island went up in 2012 and we think it was because of the strong air cooling that year.

This figure from the study shows the Summer Air Temperature at Signy Island. Blue dots are SAT between 1960 and 2011, and orange dots are SAT between 2012 and 2018. Image Credit: Cannone et al. 2022.
This figure from the study shows the Summer Air Temperature at Signy Island. Blue dots are SAT between 1960 and 2011, and orange dots are SAT between 2012 and 2018. Image Credit: Cannone et al. 2022.

The same type of accelerated responses from climate warming can be found in the northern part of the planet. Plants are getting taller and increasing their northern range according to a research article. A paper from 2020 shows that the warming climate causes blooms of algae. The paper's authors say it is the first research to document the advancement of plants in the Antarctic. Climate change will affect the region.

They explain in their paper that their findings support the hypothesis that future warming will cause significant changes in the environment.

Signy Island has two species of plants. D. antarctica is a flowering plant. C. quitensis is a flowering plant that is also called the Pearlwort.

This figure from the study shows how climate warming resumed at Signy Island after the 2012 cooling and accelerated the expansion of D. antarctica and C. quitensis. D1 through D5 represent plant sites of increasing density. D1 is the least dense site and D5 is the densest site. Image Credit: Cannone et al. 2022.
This figure from the study shows how climate warming resumed at Signy Island after the 2012 cooling and accelerated the expansion of D. antarctica and C. quitensis. D1 through D5 represent plant sites of increasing density. D1 is the least dense site, and D5 is the densest site. Image Credit: Cannone et al. 2022.

Between 1960 and 2009, the number of sites of occurrence doubled, and between 2009 and 2018, it did the same. In the last decade, C. quitensis expanded even more.

Between 1960 and 2009, the number of sites doubled. Then it doubled again. In the last decade, C. quitensis expanded more than D. antarctica.

This figure from the study illustrates the spread of both vascular plants native to Signy Island going back to 1960. The top row is D. antarctica and the bottom row is C. quitensis. From the paper: "Distribution of D. antarctica and C. quitensis in 1960 (yellow dots) (A and D), 2009 (B and E), and 2018 (C and F) (green and magenta dots) in relation with the patterns of Holocene deglaciation and glacier boundaries and indicating the occurrence (magenta dots) or absence (green dots) of marine vertebrate disturbance in 2009 and 2018. Legend: dark blue, glacier boundaries as recorded in 2016; blue, glacier boundaries during the Little Ice Age; pale blue, terrains deglaciated between 6600 years BP and the Little Ice Age; white, terrains deglaciated before 6600 years BP.
This figure from the study illustrates the spread of both vascular plants native to Signy Island going back to 1960. The top row is D. antarctica, and the bottom row is C. quitensis. From the paper: “Distribution of D. antarctica and C. quitensis in 1960 (yellow dots) (A and D), 2009 (B and E), and 2018 (C and F) (green and magenta dots) in relation with the patterns of Holocene deglaciation and glacier boundaries and indicating the occurrence (magenta dots) or absence (green dots) of marine vertebrate disturbance in 2009 and 2018. Legend: dark blue, glacier boundaries as recorded in 2016; blue, glacier boundaries during the Little Ice Age; pale blue, terrains deglaciated between 6600 years BP and the Little Ice Age; white, terrains deglaciated before 6600 years BP.” Image Credit: Cannone et al. 2022.

There are other factors in this study, including the warming climate. The areas shown in the image are marine vertebrate disturbed. The impact of fur seal disturbance on both species decreased in the last decade.

Climate change doubters might think they have found something here. Some people might want to downplay the effect of climate warming and emphasize the reduction in animal disturbance as a factor in plant spread. The researchers don't discount the reduced animal disturbance. This hypothesis is compatible with observations in the Northern Hemisphere, in particular in Europe, where land-use change is correlated with vegetation change, but the primary driver of these responses was climate warming.

These are the two vascular plants native to Signy Island. On the left is D. antarctica and on the right is C. quitensis. Image Credit: L: By Lomvi2 - Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=10372682. Image Credit: R: By Liam Quinn - Flickr: Antarctic Pearlwort, CC BY-SA 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=15525940
These are the two vascular plants native to Signy Island. On the left is D. antarctica and on the right is C. quitensis. Image Credit: L: By Lomvi2 – Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=10372682. Image Credit: R: By Liam Quinn – Flickr: Antarctic Pearlwort, CC BY-SA 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=15525940

What does a warming climate mean for the future of the Antarctic? There are some benefits on the surface. Climate warming may benefit some and possibly many native Antarctic species and communities in isolation.

It is not just native plants that will benefit. Other plant species haven't gained a foothold on Signy Island because they have exploited their cold niche for a long time. The change could be disruptive.

Increased risks from non-native species establishment will be caused by climate warming. They say that these may cause irreversible loss and changes to the delicate and unique environment.

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