The GuardianThe Guardian
<span>Photograph: AP</span>

The horsemen of the apocalypse seem to be lining up like the omens of impending war.

Blood banks have reportedly been brought in near the border. A video showing an attempted Ukrainian attack on chlorine tanks in the Donbas was posted on the internet.

There is a "moment of peril" as tensions reach a point of peril.

The leaders of the two oblasts ordered the departure of women and children to Russia with no evidence that a Ukrainian attack was imminent. A car bomb went off in Donetsk, but no one was hurt, but provided a fireball for the cameras.

The US and UK briefers have told journalists what to expect in the run-up to a Russian invasion. The one piece that had been missing from the build-up was an effort to prepare the Russian population for a war. The piece seems to be in place.

Russian messaging is also on the verge of collapse, just as Russian armour and helicopters are getting closer to the border. By the hour, war is becoming more probable, but it doesn't necessarily mean that Putin has made his final decision.

The events unfolding today may be messier than a single Kremlin-orchestrated master plan.

The chlorine video is a very crude and low-budget version of what US and British briefers had predicted, which had involved actors, borrowed corpses and high production values.

In a similar vein, the security council was presented with a very thin document on Thursday that did not claim that civilians have been killed in shelling on the rebel side of the lines. It mirrors civilian casualties on the other side, but falls short of genocide.

There is a refugee crisis in Russia because of the evacuation from Luhansk and Donetsk.

The Kremlin spokesman and the governor claim they were unaware of the move. They could be lying to make up for the fact that they are not. The rebels are using the crisis Putin has created to force his hand, so that they can recognise the republics of Russia.

Gennady Rudkevich, a Russia expert at Georgia College, argued that it was easy to read into this. Some may be following the Kremlin's orders. Others might be trying to deny Putin an option.

Putin keeps his options open while keeping everyone else guessing. Putin may think that the Ukrainians have not been scared enough, and that he is laying on what we have been prepared for in the hours before a war. There is a small chance that the finger won't be pulled.

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