Kiley is looking at the top prospects in baseball. (1:18) After ranking the top 100 prospects, it is time to look at each team's farm system as a whole. I have always found it hard to line up 30 lists of players and say this one is better than the other one, since the process of ranking them is already pretty subjective and over 1,000 players/ data points are too many for one brain to effectively consider. Science is entered! The rankings of all 30 organizations were the same as last year. While at FanGraphs, research by Craig Edwards revealed empirical surplus dollar values for each future value tier of prospect, so we can now make an objective ranking of farm systems derived from my individual team lists. The number of players who are better than a 40 FV and total players ranked who have trade value have been added this year. The idea is that a 40 FV is a tier of player every team has, so in any trade they are seen as common. You can't offer five of that tier of player and get a good big leaguer, but once you go above that tier you can. The number of players above the 40 FV cutoff is a good measure of quality depth of a system, or the number of players almost every team would want in a deal. The list of 40 FV players varies depending on which team you are talking to, but above that tier the takes tend to be more similar and the trade value more universal. The players in the top half of the top 100 are almost never traded these days, so if you want to be even more specific, you should include the players in the top 50. One benefit of this approach is that you can use your own judgement to disagree with a ranking if you prefer a different type of talent. The other 29 teams give you the tools to see how close every team is and what their players are like. (55 players ranked, 16 better than 40 FV)
Last year:
Top-100 prospects: 6
1. Baltimore Orioles ($344 million)
I mention in the blurb that I am not sure about the concept of a modern rebuild. It is the most efficient and effective way to turn a not-very-good team into a potential force. It is frustrating to watch it happen in slow motion. I try to distance myself from this conflict because I am here to comment on how well teams execute this strategy and only occasionally point out that the rules that make it viable are problematic. The front office is playing the hand it is dealt and the Orioles have played it well, as long as you don't judge the current big league team as part of this. At this time last year, I said that Ryan Mountcastle should land in the top five of this year's list, given how everything was lining up.
A bunch of position players who were solid values were the headliners of the draft. Grayson Rodriguez is the best pitching prospect in the minor league system. The prep bats from recent drafts saw big gains, with Coby Mayo and Gunnar Henderson taking a step forward. Heston Kjerstad, the top 2020 pick, was kept out of action, so the slack was picked up by Jordan and Mayo. Kyle Bradish and Drew Rom are two potential replacements for Rodriguez and D.L. Hall. Hudson Haskin is one of the second-tier position players who have a chance to turn into an everyday player. The plans for the hitter and pitcher seem to be working, and the GM appears to have taken what worked from the Astros while leaving behind the stuff nobody wanted.
58 players are better than 40.
Last year: 1st, $496 million
Top-100 prospects: 6
There is a top-tier farm system with death, taxes and the Rays. They graduated the best prospect in recent memory, worth over $100 million in my method, along with Randy Arozarena, Luis Patino, and Taylor Walls. The bad is that the Rays just kept humming along, they created an Australian Brandon Lowe, two more position players came out, and they turned the second-best pitching prospect in the sport into the second-best pitching prospect in the sport. Listen to me if you find yourself betting against the team again.
The players are better than 40 FV.
Last year: 4th, $290 million
Top-100 prospects: 6
The Pirates are doing a version of the modern teardown, bottoming out on payroll, trading all the good veterans, loading up on young players and trying to put together a wave or two of talent that could make the playoffs within the franchise's payroll parameters. They are doing a good job of executing that plan, with a very strong draft class, recent international classes and some unexpected gains on the development front.
The big league fans will get some of their favorite players in the lineup, like Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz. The rest of this top tier of talent is expected to be big league ready by the year 2023, despite the fact that Roansy will join the big league rotation at some point in the future.
36 players are better than 40.
Last year: 2nd, $319 million
Top-100 prospects: 7
I pointed out last year that there wasn't enough playing time for all of the players on the 40-man roster because they had so many prospect types in the upper minors. They graduated three players from that group to the big league team, some have become more role-player types, and others have been traded for big league upgrades. They have three starting pitchers who are in the top 100 and two outfielders who are close, and another who would be in the big leagues if not for Tommy John surgery. The lower level upside types are early enough in their careers that they have a clean slate. Many GMs would love a top 15-17 like this, as the weakness here may be the depth after the first 15-17 players.
48 players are ranked 17 better than 40.
Last year: 10th, $244 million
Top-100 prospects: 4
It has been a tough few years for the Diamondbacks, including losing the first overall pick in the draft. In the next year, they may get two new everyday-quality center fielders, one shortstop and three or more solid starting pitchers because of the strength of their farm system. The D-backs took my top prospect in the draft with the sixth overall pick, and that's because Daulton Varsho graduated. The D-backs have a lot of talent, but they need all of it to compete with the Dodgers, Padres and Giants.
38 players are better than 40.
Last year: 6th, $275 million
Top-100 prospects: 5
The mini-rebuild has turned into a success, with the graduation of Jarred Kelenic,Logan Gilbert, Taylor Trammell, and Cal Raleigh to the big league team. The third overall prospect in the sport, right fielder Julio Rodriguez, is the best of the bunch. I like the mix of players the Mariners are targeting in the draft, and they seem to find a real position player prospect or two in every signing class, which is harder than it sounds. Depending on how quickly Rodriguez is ready, the hitter they need may be there later this year, as the rest of the pitching is probably in the system now. It might be time for M's fans to get excited.
48 players are better than 40.
Last year: 15th, $199 million
Top-100 prospects: 4
A number of players took significant steps forward this year as a result of some combination of scouting and development. The sixth overall prospect in baseball, Anthony Volpe, had one of the most shocking breakthrough seasons in recent memory, while Oswald Peraza just keeps getting better, center fielder Everson Pereira had the best season of his career, and left-handed pitcher Ken Waldichuk went from a funky mid The international class was led by the top player, the draft crop was once again above average, and a couple of more anonymous types turned into prospects in the upper minor. I think Brian Cashman would rather hold off and see how they turn out.
51 players are better than 40.
Last year: 16th, $193 million
Top-100 prospects: 5
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The Dodgers have a good farm system and are always turning what many thought were marginal players into real prospects. Half of their top dozen prospects are international, and their domestic scouting group is almost annoying because it takes so many players. It seems like their scouting staff is intent on embarrassing me. I am curious to see what they do with Maddux Bruns, the most recent first-round pick, who had the worst command of the prep pitching class.
The players are ranked 20 better than 40 FV.
Last year: 9th, $246 million
Top-100 prospects: 4
The discipline with which the Guardians do business can be a bit boring: always in and around the playoff race, always with a solid young core, always with a solid farm system, and sometimes losing star players when they get expensive, making trades I don. They stick to their types in the draft and do well, and are always in asset accumulation mode. Daniel Espino, Brayan Rocchio and George Valera are top 100 prospects and I find them exciting to watch.
57 players are better than 40.
Last year: 20th, $167 million
Top-100 prospects: 3
I wrote last year that the Rangers were hurt the most by the Pandemic because of so many upside prospects who didn't get reps, and that within a year or two Texas could have one of the top 10 farm systems. $500 million can go a long way to upgrade your infield, as the Rangers have turned a corner just one year later. There will be more payroll upside in the coming years and there may be three solid rotation pieces and four potential everyday players coming out of this system in the next two years, though only Jack Leiter has true star potential of that group.
The Rangers are in a tough spot where they need to win eight to 10 more games to be a real contender. They have the most money, the most current stars and the best system, so I will lean towards them to solve this problem the fastest.
40 players are better than 40 players.
Last year: 12th, $221 million
Top-100 prospects: 4
The Giants are a trendy new kid on the block joining the Dodgers and Rays as one of the darlings of the industry for how they seem to make every player in their circle better. We know from the past that there are still a few holes to be addressed this off-season.
The next couple of offseason to-do lists will be simpler with some rookies stepping into key spots every season and a shot at the big league roster.
45 players are better than 40.
Last year: 17th, $190 million
Top-100 prospects: 3
The Royals are in the same spot as the Tigers, trying to improve, with some top 100 types about to join the big league team in a division where second place is wide open.
Bobby Witt Jr. could be a franchise-changing talent and M.J. Melendez and Nick Pratto could be the next generation of players.
The big league team still has some holes left, the farm isn't very good, and there isn't a lot of money left over, so GM Dayton Moore needs to work some magic to make the most of this situation.
36 players are better than 40.
Last year: 3rd, $310 million
Top-100 prospects: 4
The Tigers have turned the corner in their rebuild, with an unexpectedly good 2021 season, and a $140 million deal with the Cubs in November. The next wave of potential stars is on the doorstep, led by a pair of top 10 overall draft picks in Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson.
There are roughly 10 more wins that need to be found and added to the big league roster to be a playoff contender. Almost anyone can pick good players at the top of the draft, so how good the GM is at that last step will determine whether this rebuild will be a success.
40 players are better than 40 players.
Last year: 18th, $171 million
Top-100 prospects: 4
The group of potential impact talent from the draft, international signings and trades is what the Cards do their way, they don't fall into any of the neat boxes that other scouting and development groups do. The top two players in their system were prep third basemen expected to go higher in the first round who slid for unclear reasons, followed by a mid-to-low-tier international signing, an under-the-weather young lefty, and so on.
Michael McGreevy was taken in the first round this year, more beloved by eyeball evaluators than trendy analytical methods. They have to find value when they pick in the back of the first round and the Cards have their own way of doing that.
37 players are better than 40.
Last year: 7th, $271 million
Top-100 prospects: 4
The Padres were a perennial threat, particularly when GM A.J. Preller was in prospect collection mode. The second tier of the farm system was decimated by trading for multiple players.
The top tier has four elite prospects and a good crop from the draft class of 2021. There is a mix of recent international talent that has potential but hasn't quite broken through yet and likely role-player types. This is an example of what a good farm system should be used for, the Pads need that ring to make it all worth it.
The players are better than 40 FV.
Last year: 21st, $159 million
Top-100 prospects: 3
The farm system has improved under Chaim Bloom, in large part due to his first pick paying off hugely, and with his second first-round pick, the Red Sox were opportunist in grabbing the best player at the fourth pick.
I like the draft class as a whole, along with the two-player return for Hunter Renfroe, and overall improved depth to the system. Triston Casas should be ready to take over for J.D. Martinez at some point, freeing up more payroll space for next winter.
The players ranked are better than 40 FV.
Last year: 5th, $290 million
Top-100 prospects: 3
Minnesota needs to be a sustainable club as it will probably always be running below average payrolls at the big league level and the Twins have solid top-end, high-minors depth, with their top seven prospects all 50 FV or better and slated to start in Double-A or None of the seven were in the top half of the top 100, but being opportunistic in signing amateurs and making trades is important, along with avoiding any big misses in free agency.
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The Twins dropped in these rankings because three top-100 prospects graduated last year. Better days are ahead for this area after it was 800-273-3217 800-273-3217 800-273-3217 800-273-3217 800-273-3217 800-273-3217 800-273-3217 800-273-3217 800-273-3217 800-273-3217 800-273-3217 800-273-3217 800-273-3217 800-273-3217 800-273-3217 800-273-3217 800-273-3217 800-273-3217 800-273-3217 800-273-3217 800-273-3217 800-273-3217 800-273-3217 800-273-3217 800-273-3217 800-273-3217 800-273-3217 800-273-3217 800-273-3217 800-273-3217 800-273-3217 800-273-3217 800-273-3217 800-273-3217 800-273-3217 800-273-3217 800-273-3217 800-273-3217 800-273-3217 800-273-3217 800-273-3217 800-273-3217 800-273-3217 800-273-3217 800-273-3217 800-273-3217 800-273-3217 800-273-3217
9 players are better than 40 FV.
Last year: 25th, $119 million
Top-100 prospects: 4
The Mets spent over $250 million before the season ended, but they also have some help coming from the farm system with four top-100 prospects.
Being able to insert a few rookies at the league minimum and/or have key pieces for trades is key, given the posture of the big league team moving forward. The issue is that the system is not as deep as it could be, so the players who are better than a 40 FV are in shorter supply.
52 players are better than 40.
Last year: 22nd, $156 million
Top-100 prospects: 1
The Cubs just gave Marcus Stroman $71 million, which is a rare big-market rebuild. Chicago seems to have a clear point of view on its trades, often targeting upside in teenage prospects at the lowest levels of the minor league system. Only one of the Cubs top eight prospects was a teenager at the end of the year. Fans want to hear the word "upside" when it comes to the farm system. There is only one top 100 prospect in this system today. I think the Cubs will have an over/under of 2.5 players going from off the list to on it next year, even without looking at any possible additions via trade, draft or international signings.
42 players are better than 40.
Last year: 19th, $168 million
Top-100 prospects: 3
The Reds are in the middle of the pack at the big league level, not quite as good as the Brewers and Cards, but still ahead of the Cubs and Pirates. There are a couple quick shot-in-the-arm types at the top of the system, but there probably isn't an impact-level bat ready for the big leagues. There are some coming in a year or two, but the challenge for the Reds is to figure out a plan to move into that top tier of the division, with a solid farm system to back them but likely without an immediate internal solution.
37 players are better than 40.
Last year: 11th, $230 million
Top-100 prospects: 2
George Springer, Kevin Gausman and Jose Berrios have all signed long-term deals with the BlueJays, but they are still outside of the league's top 10 payrolls. They now appear to be in a four-team race for the American League East, thanks to the cost-controlled salaries of young stars like Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. They have a top-heavy farm, led by two more potential impact players in Gabriel Moreno and Orelvis Martinez, who may soon be added to that list, making their balancing act a bit easier.
The players are 10 better than 40 FV.
Last year: 30th, $59 million
Top-100 prospects: 3
The Nats are a modern example of a team that sees the farm system as a place to produce stars and fodder for trades. They traded their two most valuable players to the Dodgers for two top-100 prospects last year because they were in last place in the NL East. The Mets made the worst pick of the draft, but they still took Brady House, one of the more savvy first-round picks. The Nats play young players while paying huge money to Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin and treading water to figure out how to build the next contending team around Juan Soto, as a bit of a pivot is happening in D.C.
The players are better than 40 FV.
Last year: 27th, $107 million
Top-100 prospects: 2
The perennial most confusing team in baseball is currently projected by FanGraphs to be the worst team in MLB this season. The amateur talent acquisition has always been solid for Colorado and the new general manager, Bill Schmidt, brings some hope for that level of coherence to the rest of the organization. The Rockies have two first-round picks in 2020, one of which has the look of a middle-of-the-order star and the other a big arrow-up guy.
40 players are better than 40 players.
Last year: 24th, $138 million
Top-100 prospects: 3
The industry was prepared for farm system carnage when Dave Dombrowski took over. He may have turned over a new leaf, with Spencer Howard the only top-tier prospects sent packing via trade.
The Phils have taken the riskiest part of the draft pool with their last two first-round picks, prep right-handed pitchers Mick Abel and Andrew Painter. At some point in the not too distant future, Shortstop Bryson Stott should be ready to take over in the big leagues, while emerging talent, like Johan Rojas, should be watched closely. Philadelphia is behind the Braves and Mets in the NL East projections, so I am still bracing for farm system carnage here.
37 players are better than 40.
Last year: 29th, $88 million
Top-100 prospects: 1
Milwaukee is a perennial contender on a micro budget because of how well it can execute a scouting and development vision from the top to the bottom of the organization.
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I loved the first two picks of the Brew Crew last summer, advanced college bats in Tyler Black and sal frelick, and they have had good returns on their college hitters, including Joey Wiemer. The Milwaukee Brewers have a dominating major league pitching staff, but they need the farm to turn out more everyday players, with top prospect Aaron Ashby likely the next.
36 players are better than 40.
Last year: 28th, $91 million
Top-100 prospects: 2
The Astros are doing a good job of having big league ready talent available when the big league team needs it, with Jeremy Pena set to take Carlos Correa's spot in 2022, as a notable example. The next two examples of turning unheralded talents into real on-field impact could be Hunter Brown and Korey Lee.
It is difficult to stay on the right half of this list while also keeping the big league team a perennial contender, which is the whole point of Forrest Whitley's struggles, which have been a big disappointment and, like many of the teams in this range, it is difficult to
The players are 10 better than 40 FV.
Last year: 13th, $221 million
Top-100 prospects: 2
The Braves had a lack of lower-minors depth because of international sanctions that have since been lifted, and they have signed two classes with seven-figure bonuses, along with having a deal in place for one of the top talents in the 2023 signing class.
The big league team, through trades and graduations, is also borrowing from the system, and the Braves are regularly picking in the back half of the draft. It takes masterful execution to have a top-half of the league farm system while also running a perennial contender that is not spending to the luxury tax threshold.
The players are better than 40 FV.
Last year: 26th, $117 million
Top-100 prospects: 1
Oakland has put together a perennially small-payroll contender that is second to only the Rays. The top of the J2 international class, often non-consensus draft talents, and excellent upper-minors pro scouting help to find undervalued talent and engineer quick rebuilds, which is part of being able to pull that off.
There are a handful of potential impact talents in the system, but this could be a top 10 system by next year if they tear it all the way down.
40 players are better than 41 players.
Last year: 23rd, $149 million
Top-100 prospects: 1
The Angels will have a hard time moving much higher in these rankings next year, as top prospects will graduate and the big league team continues to be in "go for it" mode. There is some young talent that just graduated in Brandon Marsh and Jo Adell, but top-end talent is what is needed here. The Angels took college pitchers with all but one of their picks in the first draft, and it will be interesting to see how this farm system progresses over the next year.
8 players are better than 40 FV.
Last year: 14th, $204 million
Top-100 prospects: 0
If you aren't the best-run team in baseball, the cycle of trying to win at the big leagues will work. Top prospects graduate or are traded in an effort to make the major league team good.
The top of this list is largely filled with the last two draft/international classes as the White Sox pick in the back of the first round as they will be in the thick of the American League race again. The farm system will probably be in the bottom third again next year, unless a number of those players make the leap, as it may graduate two of its top five talents.
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