playBengals overcome 18-point deficit, top Chiefs in OT to go to Super Bowl (1:44)
In overtime, the Bengals came back from 18 points down to defeat the Chiefs. There is a time and a place for this.
9:50 PM ET
Well now. When the season began, we didn't expect the Super Bowl to be a match up that different than it is now.
The Cincinnati Bengals were 125-1 long shots to make the Super Bowl, having won two games and lost four last season. They made the fastest turn around from worst to Super Bowl in league history. The Los Angeles Rams will play in the Super Bowl for the second year in a row. The Super Bowl was played at Raymond James Stadium.
Kevin Seifert looks at each team and how they can win the Super Bowl, while Matt Bowen dives into the game plan with a key opponent. Let's dive in.
The game lines can be found at Caesars Sportsbook. The predictions are from the football power index.
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Rams | Bengals | Key stats
X factors | Big questions
Quarterbacks | Early picks
Super Bowl LVI: Rams vs. Bengals
What time: 6:30 p.m. On Sunday, Feb. 13 on NBC.
Where: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
Opening line: Rams -3.5 (O/U 50)
FPI prediction: Rams (66.4%) by 5.6 points
For good reason, quarterback play will be the focus of two weeks of hype. Matthew Stafford has provided exactly what his new team was looking for when he joined the Rams, and Joe Burrow has been playing out of his mind in the playoffs. The best player on the field will be the Rams defensive tackle, who could be the antidote to the hot play of the other team.
Kevin Seifert's first look at the matchup
Rams
The regular season ended with a 12-5 record.
Matthew Stafford can't be counted out in the fourth quarter. His resourcefulness will be a huge advantage based on how close the playoff games have been. In the regular season, Stafford has 34 fourth-quarter comebacks, which are the fifth most in NFL history, and he has pulled off two late victories in the past two weeks. It is hard to argue against having Stafford, Kupp and Beckham on the field with the game on the line.
This will sound crazy, since he has led the Rams to a pair of Super Bowls, but sometimes he gets in his own way. His use of timeouts is documented. Sometimes his playcalling can be too much. He admitted that he didn't know how the New EnglandPatriots were playing defense in the Super Bowl. One of the reasons the Rams haven't yet won a championship is because McVay has been the top driver of their success. Can he take the final step?
The Rams' front four is a huge mismatch against the offensive line. The Rams will be the most aggressive and talented rush he has faced, and we have seen how he has held his own against pass-rushers that are getting home. Many Super Bowls have been won by dominant interior pass-rushes taking quarterbacks out of their comfort zone.
play
Jimmy Garoppolo threw a costly pick-six in the fourth quarter to seal the Rams victory.
Bengals
The regular season ended with a No. 4 seed in the playoffs.
There is a reason for hope. The worst record of the year was the reward for the quarterback, who is the first No. 1 overall pick to get his team to the Super Bowl within his first two seasons. He has held up well behind the offensive line. He completed seven of 12 passes when under pressure and converted three third downs via scrambles. When the Chiefs were able to cover top receiver Ja'Marr Chase, the shift was to Tee Higgins. A team that has some otherwise disqualifying deficiencies is being carried by a player who is playing like a hot point guard.
The reason for concern is that the Cincinnati defense made a major adjustment after falling behind the Chiefs and taking away receiver Tyreek Hill. In the first half, Patrick Mahomes completed all 11 of his attempts for 127 yards and three touchdown. He missed on seven of eight throws after halftime. We would all be foolish to assume that the Bengals can absorb a similar body blow in the Super Bowl, even though Lou Anarumo was able to make that adjustment. During the regular season, the defense had some questionable moments and was ranked 24th in Total QBR. Do you trust them against Matthew Stafford?
The wave that we have seen other recent Super Bowl winners find will be the one the Bengals ride. The best team in the regular season doesn't win the Super Bowl. The team with the most confidence plays the best in the playoffs. The gap can be wide. The organization believes it can win, and that is more than half the battle.
Seth Walder's big stats to know
The trenches are dominated by the Rams. Los Angeles ranked first in pass block win rate, pass rush win rate and run stop win rate. No. 1 in all three. The offensive and defensive lines are led by Andrew Whitworth and Aaron Donald, but it is a team effort. While receiver Cooper Kupp gets the highlights, don't forget about the linemen who have fueled Los Angeles' path to the Super Bowl.
If Joe can get the ball out of his hands, they are in great shape. Entering Sunday, they had the second-highest expected points added per play on plays when a pass is thrown. If that is the case, Cincinnati ranked 30th in pass block win rate and fourth highest in the NFL going into the playoffs.
Matt Bowen goes inside the matchup
Rams receiver Cooper Kupp will face Mike Hilton.
The slot will be where the man coverage will be played. L.A. coach Sean McVay will use reduced formations and bunch sets to give Kupp free access off the ball.
play
Matthew Stafford found Cooper Kupp beating his defender and lofted it into the end zone.
The X factor is the person who is S, the Bengal.
In the playoffs, he is playing his best football of the year. The safety can impact the game at multiple levels of the field with easy range, ball skills and playmaking. In the playoffs, he has an intercept and four passes defended.
Dan Graziano answers big questions
Will Sean McVay's offense fail again in the Super Bowl?
The Rams averaged 32.9 points per game in the regular season, and 28 in two playoff games, before losing 13-3 to the New England Pats in Super Bowl LIII. In the weeks that followed, McVay said he would do things differently if he had another chance. He has the chance with Matthew Stafford at quarterback. The Rams traded for Stafford a year ago because McVay decided he would go as far as he could with Goff at quarterback. McVay believes that the Rams can do more with Stafford than they could with Goff.
The victory over the Niners means that Stafford has gone as far with the Rams as he did three years ago. The Rams are supposed to light it up on the biggest stage, so he and McVay will have to do that. Cooper Kupp wants to end his record-breaking season with a bang. Beckham Jr. looks rejuvenated in L.A. Akers looks fantastic at running back six months after he tore his Achilles. The pieces are in place. Can the Rams win the Super Bowl in their stadium for the second year in a row?
Does it matter if the Bengals keep Joe Burrow protected?
In the regular season, Burrow was the 55th quarterback to be sacked 50 or more times. The previous 54 did not make the Super Bowl. He took 51 sacks in the regular season, two in the wild-card round victory over the Raiders, an incomprehensible nine in the divisional-round victory over the Tennessee, and just one in the AFC Championship Game victory over the Chiefs. The offensive line is weak and a big part of that is the ability of the quarterback to escape pressure.
The Rams have made it this far because of their defensive front. This is a tough test, especially with the collapse of the pocket by Donald. So far, it has not cost the Bengalers. If you can win a playoff game while allowing nine sacks, you have to think you can overcome a lot. One of these days, Burrow would appreciate a little bit of a cleaner pocket. It would be a good time to start.
Jason Reid on what's at stake for each QB
Matthew Stafford is with the Rams.
The Rams acquired Stafford from the Detroit Lions in order to reach the Super Bowl. Stafford helped the Rams win the title. He will try to finish the job at the Rams home field. Stafford, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2009 draft, had been tarnished by Detroit's lack of success during his time there. Stafford would finally silence his doubters by leading the Rams to one more win.
Joe Burrow is a player for the Cincinnati Reds.
After only his second season, Burrow ascended to superstar status with many signature performances, and none was bigger than Sunday's win on the road against Patrick Mahomes in the AFC Championship Game. There are many great, young quarterbacks in the AFC, including Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Patrick Mahomes. If the Bengals cap their season with one more victory, they would move ahead of all except Mahomes. He already has a national title and a trophy, and despite it being so early in his career, he is building his NFL legacy. A Super Bowl title would be great.
play
After a 2-point conversion in the third quarter, the Bengals were able to tie it at 21-21.
Gut-reaction predictions
Ben Baby is a reporter for the Cincinnati Enquirer. The players and coaches of the Cincinnati team kept saying there was something special about them. On paper, the Rams are very difficult to beat. Maybe it is time for us to believe what the Bengals are telling us.
The analyst is Matt Bowen. L.A. has a pass-game structure with Stafford. It will be planned throws to create open voids against zone coverage.
Jeremy Fowler is a writer for the National Football League. They proved me wrong three times when I picked against them in the playoffs. No longer. All non-believers were converted in Kansas City.
Dan is a writer for the National Football League. I have to stay on the bandwagon.
Jordan is an analyst for the NFL draft. In the playoffs, he has yet to lose a game, and in the NFL, he has yet to lose a game. It seems like the Cincinnati Reds will win their first ever Super Bowl title this year.
Kevin Seifert is a writer for the National Football League. The team with the best quarterback won the game.
Lindsey Thiry is a reporter for the Rams. The Rams were built to win a Super Bowl, and there is no greater opportunity for them to get it done than behind Stafford and Donald, who are eager to finish the job after L.A.'s effort fell short against the Pats in Super Bowl LIII.
Walder is an analytic writer. Donald and Miller will be able to overrun the offensive line with their pressure.
The writer/reporter is the Rams. Donald will play a game.
The analyst is Damien Woody. Joe Cool is not rattled by anything with his offensive weapons.
Field Yates is an analyst for the National Football League. My pick has been influenced by the confidence of Burrow. It is the first ever Super Bowl win for Cincy.
