There are fears that Russia may decide to attack after it surrounded Ukraine with more than 100,000 troops at various positions along the border.
Russia has denied plans to invade, but a number of Western nations are skeptical as Russia continues to maintain an alarming force near its neighbor.
—ISW (@TheStudyofWar) January 26, 2022
White House press secretary Jen Psaki warned last week that Russia could launch an attack on Ukraine at any time, and Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said on Thursday that a Russian incursion into the country was very dangerous.
Russian foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, told Russian media Friday that there will be no war if it depends on Russia. The Pentagon has said that Russia's intentions remain opaque.
Insider spoke with an expert about what each side could bring to a fight, amid the continued uncertainty of whether or not Russia will launch a military offensive against Ukraine.
Jeffrey Edmonds, a former US Army tanker and CIA military analyst, said that any war fought on a nation's home turf gives them a slight advantage.
The Ukrainian military understands their own terrain more than it does the other way around, according to a Russia expert.
This isn't a major advantage according to Edmonds. Russia's superior military is largely to blame for the situation in Ukraine.
The former Soviet territory's military has grown and modernized since the annexation of the peninsula by Russia.
According to a recent Congressional Research Service report, the number of combat-ready troops in Ukraine has gone from 6,000 to 145,000 in eight years.
Despite improvements in capacity and capability, the biggest weakness in the face of possible Russian aggression is its lack of military power. Russia spent $61.7 billion on its military in 2020 alone.
According to The Washington Post, the US has given over $2 billion in military aid to the country. As a potential conflict looms, the US and NATO have been providing additional support.
The US and other NATO members have sent weapons to Ukraine, but the aid is limited and unlikely to change the course of the battle.
It is not as if NATO is fighting the Russians.
Russia has a large and technologically-advanced military that is superior to that of Ukraine. Russian forces have improved over the years and have more power on land and in the air.
USA Today reported that Russia has around 12,000 tanks, 30,000 armored vehicles, and 12,000 self-propelled artillery. In comparison, Ukraine has a lot of tanks, armored vehicles, and self-propelled cannons. Russia has 700 fighter aircraft, while Ukraine only has 70.
Russia has more than 50 mine-warfare vessels at sea. There are only one mine-warfare vessel and one frigate in Ukraine.
Russia has an air force and long-range strike platforms that could have an outsized impact in a conflict.
It can be pretty decisive in the opening days of a conflict if there is an air force.
Russia will try to force a political change in the country through physical force.
He said that this isn't going to be just turning up the heat in the east or hybrid warfare, but regular tank-on-tank, aircraft-on-aircraft warfare.
Most of Russia's weaknesses are not on the battlefield, but in the country's long-term economic prosperity.
Russia has a lot of reserves saved up in case the West sanctions them, but they are still vulnerable.
The bigger issue for Russia would be the reaction from international investors. It is difficult for companies like ExxonMobil to justify expanding their operations in a country that is unpredictable because it invaded another country.
No one will want to invest in Russia after this.
Time is a factor not on Russia's side. The worse off Russia's military will be the longer it waits.
It is costly for the Russians to sit on the border, so they need to pull the trigger sooner rather than later. Morale goes down because you are not doing anything.
The weaknesses that Russia has do not affect its ability to wage war against Ukraine, so it is almost certain that it will win.
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