The following essay is available for re-publication in The Conversation, an online publication covering the latest research.
The threat of Russian cyberattacks against the U.S. increases as tensions mount between Russia and the West. Russia has the ability to carry out a range of attacks, according to an intelligence bulletin from the Department of Homeland Security.
The DHS said that Russia would consider launching a cyber attack against the Homeland if it perceived a US or NATO response to a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine as threatening its long-term national security.
The Russian government has the ability to carry out disruptive and destructive attacks against targets in the U.S. in the wake of recent cyberattacks by hackers affiliated with Russia. Russian hackers were accused by the DHS and FBI of infiltrating U.S. energy and infrastructure networks.
Russian cyberattacks could include attempts to diminish Americans' confidence in elections, undermine economic stability, damage the energy grid, and even disrupt health care systems.
The Russian government is likely to think twice before launching disruptive attacks against the U.S., because the U.S. government could interpret them. Russia has a high threshold for disruptive attacks according to the DHS bulletin. As a researcher who studies cyberwarfare, I believe a more likely threat is Russian hackers.
Americans can expect to see Russian-sponsored cyber activities with propaganda campaigns. These activities are likely to prevent a unified response to Russian aggression.
Russian military doctrine includes the idea of information confrontation, which uses cyber means to create doubt about what is true. Russia's information warfare strategy is to manipulate information.
Specific maneuvers aim to bolster narratives, people and groups that support Russian interests and undermine those that are against Russian interests. The maneuvers are carried out in the press and on social media.
Russian intelligence operatives are skilled at using technology to amplify misinformation. Russia uses online media like a fog machine that confuses the U.S. population and encourages distrust of the U.S. government.
The manipulation of online information has become a way for repressive governments to control their own populations. The open exchange of ideas and lack of centralized control over sources of information make democracies vulnerable to these techniques.
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The U.S. society is polarization and is occurring at an increasing rate. A study by researchers at the University of Oxford found that Russia's propaganda against the U.S. was designed to boost U.S. political polarization.
The Russian government uses a wide range of intelligence services, including military intelligence, domestic intelligence, and criminal intelligence.
Russia is most likely to recruit proxies to carry out cyberattacks that disrupt decision-making so that the attacks don't point directly back to the Kremlin. cyberspace is foggier than the battlefield. A cyberattack almost always allows for plausible deniability, which is one of the main benefits of cyberspace.
Russia arrested members of the Russian-based cyber gang REvil who were responsible for the attacks against the meat supplier. The unusual move caused cybersecurity analysts to wonder about Russia's motives, and whether it was easier for the government to deny a connection to the cyberattacks.
The U.S. is not defenseless in cyber defense. The US is the most capable cyber power in the world according to several analysts. 20 years of experience dealing with Russian cyber aggression is what the U.S. has.
The Biden administration's stance on Russian hacking has made some progress. Cybersecurity experts are making headway on that front, too, despite the murkiest of cyber strategies.
Cyber activity that creates room for Russia to seize Ukraine is more likely than a cyberattack. Russia might temporarily deter a U.S. response to Russian moves in Ukraine by disrupting U.S. critical infrastructure, but Americans are likely to present a unified and powerful response. Russia is more likely to prefer a path of political polarization to weaken the U.S.
The average American is not likely to be harmed if Russia launches extensive cyberattacks against the U.S. It is extremely rare for a cyberattack to lead to loss of life, but the disruption of natural gas and food supplies would have a significant economic impact.
If you are worried about the situation in Ukraine and wondering what you can do to defend against Russian cyberattacks, I recommend tuning out divisive rhetoric and cultivating common ground with Americans whom you might not agree with. Americans can still agree on the principles of the American experiment even though there are many issues.
The Conversation published this article. The original article is worth a read.
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