More Americans Want A GOP President Over Biden In 2024—But Not If It’s Trump Or His Rivals, Poll Finds

A new Morning Consult/Politico poll shows that more Americans would back a generic Republican candidate over President Joe Biden in 2024, even though Donald Trump is not favored to win the GOP nomination.

Presidents Donald Trump and Joe Biden

On September 29, 2020, former President Donald Trump and former President Joe Biden were in Cleveland, Ohio.

AFP via Getty Images

A survey of 2,005 registered voters found that 42% would back a generic Republican candidate in 2024, while 42% would vote for Biden.

45% would vote for Trump if Biden ran against him.

Trump was the closest to any potential GOP candidate, with the president also beating out former Vice President Mike Pence, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz.

50% of Republican respondents said they would back Trump in the GOP primary, followed by 18% for DeSantis and 13% for Pence.

Donald Trump Jr. and Ron DeSantis are the favorites for the GOP nomination, with 25% and 24% support, respectively.

23% of GOP respondents said they would prefer someone else besides the candidates, which included Cruz, Haley and Romney.

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42%. The number of respondents who have a favorable view of Trump is greater than the number who have a unfavorable view. Biden is more popular than others, with 42% holding a favorable view and 50% an unfavorable one.

Contra

Other polls have been more favorable to Trump. Trump beat Biden by six points in a head-to-head, according to a Harvard CAPS/Harris poll. A December Morning Consult/Politico poll found that 34% of voters thought Biden should run in 2024, compared to 39% who thought Trump should. A December Morning Consult poll found that a majority of voters don't want Trump or Biden to run, and a January Associated Press/NORC poll found that a majority of voters don't want either of them to run.

Is Trump going to actually run? The ex-president has teased his candidacy, but hasn't publicly committed to running. In December, Trump told a conservative radio host that he would likely discuss the subject in November.

Key Background

The president has faced low approval ratings this month due to issues like the omicron variant surge and inflation, as well as Biden's failing against a generic GOP candidate. According to a FiveThirtyEight aggregate of the president's approval ratings, only 41.5% of Americans approve of Biden, and he has not held more than 50% approval since mid-August. The Morning Consult/Politico poll found that Biden had a 42% approval rating, with respondents giving negative ratings to his handling of the economy, jobs, healthcare, immigration, Covid-19 and national security.

Tangent

When asked if they would vote for a Democrat or Republican in their district, 42% of respondents said they would, with the other 42% saying they would vote for a Republican.

It's not the one you're thinking of, but DeSantis looks competitive against a Trump.

A poll suggests that more voters want Trump to run than Biden.

The Biden approval rating has hit a new low.

If Trump doesn't run in 2024, his base will be angry.