There are a lot of troops, weapons, and equipment along the Ukrainian border.
Some experts think that Putin wants a negotiated solution and will offer chances for concessions.
Russia will move directly to a full-scale attack according to other observers.
Russia has moved tens of thousands of troops and equipment into positions near Ukraine. The situation is alarming and experts are torn on what to do about it.
Some observers think that Russia is still interested in a negotiated solution, possibly through gradual, coercive escalation, while others think that Russia is done talking and is preparing for a full-scale invasion of its neighbor.
Insider has learned that in the event that Russia moves to invade, the scale of the Russian build up to the country&s north, east, and south offers assault options to escalate ongoing fighting, seize a portion of the state&s territory, or swallow the state whole.
Western leaders are skeptical that Russia has any plans to attack Ukraine. President Joe Biden said last week that his guess was that Russian President Vladimir Putin would take action against Ukraine.
It is difficult to know what Russia will do next. Gustav Gressel, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told Insider that there is an endless amount of scenarios we can think through on how Russia might want to escalate.
Andrew Lohsen, a fellow in the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Insider that Putin has a lot of flexibility in how he deploys forces.
He explained that the Russian president still has options that he can use to put pressure on the West.
He expects him to escalate gradually so that he can increase the pressure and give the West a chance to make concessions before he moves further.
He said that Russia could opt for cyberattacks against Ukrainian infrastructure. The conflict in eastern Ukraine has claimed more than 13,000 lives and could get worse if Putin deploys some troops.
He said that Russia could show the pain the Russian forces can cause and then give the West a chance to react.
If Russia escalates the crisis, it will create a very challenging situation for the defenders of the country.
Russian troops backed by air power and other long-range strike options could be used to launch a concerted Russian offensive on Ukraine, which has battled pro-Russian rebels for years.
I think it would be a step-by-step approach to such an escalation.
He said it would turn nasty very quickly, but it would be a gradual development.
When an attack comes, the Ukrainians will have to quickly move troops and equipment to combat those attacks because they can't predict where the attacks will come from.
He said that the Russian air force would reduce the air force of Ukraine to nothing after one or two days.
Gressel argued that Russia could try to execute a strategic bombing campaign while supporting a puppet government in the Ukrainian capital, but that it was unlikely to yield the desired result.
Moscow will arrive at a point where it will realize that unless you drive to Kyiv by tank and sort government affairs out yourself, you will not get the result you want.
Even if Russia wins the conventional fight, there will be resistance, according to Gressel.
The Ukrainian military is large enough to offer pockets of resistance to Russian invaders. In the event of a Russian takeover, elements of these forces could combine with citizens and militia to mount a bloody insurgency. Current and former Ukrainian officials are threatening this strategy.
A Ukrainian official recently told CNN that they are going to fight if something happens. If Russians go in, every window will shoot.
According to Jeffrey Edmonds, a former military analyst with the CIA and current Russia expert at CNA, a coercive course of action involving gradual escalation seems less likely than jumping directly from the current aggressive posture to a major military offensive given the escalatory actions Russia has already taken.
He said that he doesn't think they're going for an extended campaign of coercion. I think the decision has been made.
If Russia attacked Ukraine, experts said it would need a pretext to sell the conflict to the world.
The Biden administration recently revealed that US intelligence indicated that Russia has operatives in place in Ukraine, potentially to conduct false-flag operations in advance of any Russian military action.
The opening phase of the armed conflict is likely to involve ranged strikes from land, sea, and air to cripple the opposing force, giving Russia air superiority and greater freedom of movement.
A ground force offensive from the north, east, and south is what Ukraine could be looking at. CSIS created a map that reflected what the invasion might look like and published it in a report by the director of the International Security Program at the think tank.
Russia might attempt an amphibious landing in the area. Jones suggested this possibility in his analysis.
If Russia decided to seize the entire of Ukraine instead of stopping at the Dnepr River and trying to force a settlement, this landing would be valuable. A maneuver like this could draw defenders away from the main offensive.
The Drive reported over the weekend that half a dozen Russian landing ships were spotted recently heading to the Mediterranean, from which they could relocate to the Black Sea if Russia needed them to do so.
A southern sweep that seizes all of Ukraine's coastline, possibly connecting Russia with Transdniestria, would be one of the possibilities suggested by CSIS's Jones.
The port on the Black Sea that was given to Russia as a result of its seizure of the peninsula gave it the ability to land more troops in Ukraine as part of the southern strategy.
The Russian military could be close to NATO if the offensive goes west of Kyiv.
He said that it is going to happen in the next couple of weeks and that there will not be any strategic indicators.
The Biden administration revealed in early December that they had intel that pointed to an invasion with a force of as many as 175,000 Russian troops. Russia does not have a lot of troops in place.
The Secretary of State said last week that there are plans in place to increase the force even more near its neighbor.
He explained that this situation has not only the attention of the US, but also that of allies and partners in Europe, and that Russian President Vladimir Putin has the ability to take further aggressive action against Ukraine.
The White House said last week that there could be a military offensive against Ukraine.
The US has provided military aid to Ukraine along with NATO allies and warned that Russia will face severe economic and financial consequences if it invades. Biden told reporters last week that Putin has never seen sanctions like the ones he promised to impose.
NATO has sent warships and fighter jets into eastern Europe, despite no indication that Russia intends to de-escalate. The Pentagon said on Monday that 8,500 US troops are on high alert for a possible deployment to Europe.
There is a risk that Russian military action in Ukraine could cause a larger conflict between Russia and NATO, especially if Russia feels its security is threatened.
If there is an open conflict in Ukraine, we will enter an era of more open confrontation between Russia and NATO.
He said that Russia has overturned some of the core beliefs and frameworks of European security and that we are entering into a time when conflicts are likely to appear more often or be more deadly.
I think this brings us back to an era of expansionist conflicts, and it also slows the clock.
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