Although earning a place in the World Cup remains a likely proposition for Mexico men's national team, losses in November qualification against the United States and Canada have turned a potential cake-walk into a precarious one.
The bad news is that the defeats have passed. In what has probably been a long winter, the El Tri manager and his staff have had time to think about their mistakes and miscalculations that ended in a disappointing end to the year.
The bad news? It could be a rough start. There are no guarantees regarding the fitness of a few players, like Jesus Corona and Osvaldo Rodriguez, who are suspended for the first of three World Cup qualifiers. The most doubtful of the three is Jimenez, with reports coming in that he may not play in the current international break. Mexico's place in the table is one of the bad news.
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El Tri put themselves in the middle of a tight race that has a two-point difference between first-place Canada and fourth-place Panama. If others below begin to pick up their pace, Mexico may not be able to claim an automatic invitation to Qatar within the top three in the Octagonal, or even a playoff spot.
There is no time to waste for Martino in the last two international windows.
There are three storylines to watch for Mexico.
Amid chant punishment, an empty Azteca awaits El Tri
Fans will not be allowed to attend the Mexico game at the National Stadium in Kingston due to local COVID-19 protocols. The matches between these two teams will be played without fans after Mexico beat the Reggae Boyz in an empty Azteca.
The Azteca was not previously empty due to the restrictions. After anti-gay chants were heard during the Olympic qualifers in Mexico last March, a two-game stadium ban was imposed by the sport's governing body.
Mexico is fighting with consequences of fan behavior. The Azteca will reopen with a limited capacity after Mexico won an appeal against the two-game ban for the anti-gay chant.
The Mexican Football Federation will keep attendance at 2,000 for the Costa Rica and Panama games in order to test new fan behavior measures. The president of the Mexico federation outlined a plan last week that included online ticket registration, a push for more positive fan experiences, heightened stadium security, and a five-year ban for fans who chant anti-gay slogans.
The guidelines for the Mexican Football Federation's home games are based on four pillars and will be rigorously applied.
It feels a little too late from the federation that has waited a long time to put in strict regulations. In a best-case scenario in which the measures work in the matches with limited capacity, Mexico will only need to use them two more times.
The Azteca will still be filled as much as possible in the March games for monetary and sporting reasons. Depending on how things go over the next few weeks, they might need to compensate for the points lost from the upcoming window that will have little-to-no supporters.
Mistake leaving Flores, Acevedo out of the roster?
It is not difficult to make the case for at least a couple of names that have been overlooked despite the fact that a total of 30 names were included in Mexico's packed roster.
The most glaring omission is the absence of Marcelo Flores. The next great star for Mexico is the 18-year-old, who made his El Tri debut during December's 2-2 friendly draw with Chile. The teenager has excelled in the youth set up of the club and is expected to make his English premier league debut soon.
patience is the word that Martino has often used when discussing Flores. The manager has the right to not be overzealous and immediately bring him back in, but if Mexico have more questions than answers, he might be kicking himself for not taking a chance on the player. If he loses the teenager that is also eligible for Canada and England, he might regret it down the line.
Mexico fans are confused by the fact that there are five goalkeepers on the list. It's odd that the backups in this position are in their 30s, even though experience is important for World Cup qualification.
It is not as if there are no young alternatives. Carlos Acevedo, a 25-year-old goalkeeper, was one of the stars in the Chile friendly last month. The most impressive player for Mexico from the match with Chile was the one who was not included in the current Mexico call-up.
Over the last couple of years, the captain has been exceptional. In a three-game international run, he is worthy of an opportunity over the other veteran goalkeepers.
Resolving the backline must be a priority
There is enough talent in the attack for Mexico to score some goals and there is enough talent in the middle to dictate the pace of the game, but what about the defense?
The backline is an immediate place of concern when trying to identify a weak link. Mexico had problems in this area. The team allowed nine goals in their last four matches. The friendly draw with Chile was followed by a challenge to find a defense that lives up to how we attack.
The inclusion of Araujo at right-back and Genk's Gerardo Arteaga at left-back, the latter who is back in the mix after being left out for months due to previously turning down a call-up from Martino, are some solutions. In the center of the defense, Genoa's Johan Vasquez and Monterrey's Cesar Montes are reliable enough to help bolster Mexico's own half of the pitch.
There are question marks over other players who will be involved in the upcoming three-game stretch. In the fullback positions, Luis Rodriguez and Jesus Gallardo have not looked their best. In the backline, there is yet to be a trustworthy partnership with one another.
Finding the right combinations and hoping for some of these names to step up will be necessary for Mexico's success.
If El Tri stumbles, they could find themselves in the same situation as in the past, when they were able to squeeze into the World Cup thanks to some devine intervention.
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