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MC 30

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US President Joe Biden warned Russian president Putin that he will regret his actions after months of building tension.

Over the past several months, Russia has built up an estimated 100,000 troops along its border with Ukraine.

Russia began moving troops into Belarus in January in preparation for military exercises in February.

Before he pulls his military forces back, Putin has issued various security demands. NATO will remove troops and weapons across much of Eastern Europe, as well as a ban on Ukraine entering NATO, according to Putin.

The precedent for taking the threat seriously is that Putin annexed the Crimea portion of Ukraine.

The nation of Ukraine is a complex one, and its history shows why. Five key points are highlighted by me as an Eastern Europe expert.

Ukrainians have a relationship with Russia.

After the fall of the Soviet Union, Ukraine gained independence. It has struggled to fight corruption and bridge internal divisions.

Integration with Western Europe was supported by the western region. Closer ties with Russia were favored by the eastern side of the country.

In February of last year, there was a spike in tensions between Russia and Ukraine after violent protesters ousted the pro-Russian president.

Russia forcibly annexed the peninsula. Ukraine was in a vulnerable position because of a temporary government and unprepared military.

Putin moved to strike in eastern Ukraine. Over 15000 people have been killed in the armed conflict between Ukrainian government forces and Russia-backed rebels.

Russia continues to deny its involvement in the conflict.

What do Ukrainians want?

Public support for the Western leanings of the country has been galvanized by Russia's military aggression.

The Ukrainian government has stated that it will apply for European Union membership in 2024.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy came to power with a platform of anti-corruption, economic renewal and peace in the Donbas region.

According to the Ukrainian news site, 81 percent of Ukrainians have a negative attitude towards Putin. Only 15 percent of Ukrainians said they had a positive attitude towards the Russian leader.

Why is Putin threatening to invade?

A sense of impunity is the reason for Putin to engage in a military build up. Western politicians who champion Russian interests become engaged with Russian companies once they leave office, which is something Putin has experience with.

Western countries imposed mostly symbolic sanctions against Russia over interference in the 2020 US presidential elections and a huge cyberattack against about 18,000 people who work for companies and the US government.

Without repercussions, Putin has supported Alexander Lukashenko's brutal suppression of mass protests in the capital city.

Some leading Western politicians have aligned with Russia. Western countries can't forge a unified front with Putin because of these alliances.

While in office, the former German chancellor advocated for strategic cooperation between Europe and Russia. He joined the Russian oil company as chairman.

Former French Prime Minister Franois Fillon is one of the politicians who promotes a soft stance toward Russia. After leaving office, both joined the boards of Russian state-owned companies.

What is the end game of Putin?

Putin sees Ukraine as part of Russia's sphere of influence. The Kremlin is trying to prevent Ukraine from joining the EU and NATO.

Russia experienced one of its largest anti-government demonstrations in years in January of 2021. Tens of thousands of Russians protested in support of Navalny. The Russian government poisoned Navalny when he was in Germany.

Putin is trying to get the Western powers to lift their sanctions. The US has a number of sanctions against Russia, as well as potential allies and business partners.

There could be more diplomatic conversations that lead to concessions on the part of the Russian government.

The costs of attacking Ukraine would be more than the benefits.

The fighting between the Ukrainian army and Russia-backed rebels in eastern Ukraine is unlikely to get worse.

Why would the US be involved in this conflict?

Russia has violated the Budapest Memorandum Security Assurances for Ukraine, a 1994 agreement between the US, United Kingdom and Russia that aims to protect Ukraine's sovereignty in exchange for its commitment to give up its nuclear arsenal.

Putin is moving Russian forces into Belarus, which raises questions about the Kremlin's plans for invading other neighboring countries.

Military support for Ukraine and political and economic sanctions can be used by the US to make clear to Moscow that there will be consequences for its actions. There is a risk that the Kremlin could undertake other military and political actions that could threaten European security and stability.