The UK is past the worst of the Covid pandemic but should be prepared for some bumps on the road according to the scientist who helped shape Britain's lockdown strategy.
Prof Neil Ferguson, an epidemiologist at Imperial College London, said that things were looking up as the country passed the peak of another wave of coronaviruses infections.
The majority of deaths and hospitalisations are behind us. Even though we should be prepared for some possible bumps on the road, any new variant that was highly likely to arise may have a less dramatic impact than Omicron.
He said that the risk of a new variant causing unmanageable levels of healthcare demand is much reduced because of the high level of immunity in the UK population. There is a chance that if any new variant arises from Omicron, it will retain the reduced severity of that strain.
Ferguson said that a key development was the use of Covid vaccines, which were based on mRNA technology, and that important lessons had been learned, such as the need for data to make informed decisions. In March 2020 we were not aware of how much infections were in the country.
The need to tailor the speed of policymaking to the speed of the virus was a lesson. He said that you may have to make decisions before you have a full picture on severity.
With Omicron spreading rapidly in the UK late last year, ministers were faced with a stark message from scientific advisers: to avoid the potential worst-case scenarios.
While the UK government introduced plan B in England, it resisted calls to go further, despite stronger measures in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
Ferguson said the political stance had changed over time. He said that the change had led to more nuanced and difficult decisions.
The prime minister said that plan B measures would be lifted as cases were falling. Ferguson doesn't think this will cause Omicron to come back in force.
He said that restrictions are always a trade-off between control and cost. Lifting restrictions doesn't pose a large risk of causing a major resurgence because case numbers are in decline in all regions. Trends will need to be closely monitored.
Sir Patrick Vallance and Sir Chris Whitty acted as mediators, according to Ferguson. When the Alpha variant took off, there were some frustrations.
Case numbers went up. He said there was a lot of misinformation.
He said that Covid was not yet in a classic endemic disease scenario in the UK. The immunity we have acquired over the course of our lives makes it manageable. Experts have noted that endemic does not necessarily mean mild.
According to Ferguson, Covid is going to become an endemic disease and kill people every year. He hoped that waves of infections would bring a lower toll of hospitalisations and deaths, although it may be necessary to expand hospital bed capacity.
He worried that we may stop preparing for the next epidemic once the shock of coronaviruses wears off.
Ferguson said that for the next 10 years, Pandemic Preparedness will be a top priority for governments. Does that memory last for 15 or 20 years? That is the real risk.
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