Polling data can be hard to understand, and it is never smart to generalize the views of an entire population from the results of a single survey. It appears that Arizona Democrats are not happy with the job performance of their senior senator.
The Daily Kos has a graph that shows Arizona Democrats' views on Sen. Sinema up to January 14.
In party politics, you rarely see a rapid turning-on-one. In the past year, Sinema went from a 50 percent net favorable rating among Arizona Dems to a 72 percent net unfavorable rating.
The results for the senator have turned up in other polls. OH Predictive Insights found that 42% of Arizona Democrats had a favorable view of Sinema. 72 percent of the party's voters said they'd go with the other Democrat if they had a choice. In the past century, only a few incumbent senators have lost their primaries, including Republicans Bob Smith and Richard Lugar and Democrats Joe Lieberman and Arlen Specter.
Arizona Democrats are not being capricious. They seem to be paying close attention to what is happening in Washington, as evidenced by the two major inflection points on the chart: Sinema's vote against including a minimum wage hike in the COVID relief bill and her decision to skip the Senate's vote on it.
That is not the weird part. We should expect that the voters who elected the senator would care that he is tanking his party's agenda at a time when they control both chambers of Congress and the White House.
Sinema, who could lose a Democratic primary if she runs for re-election in 2024, doesn't seem to care. Legislators' positions on issues are usually informed by a combination of their own beliefs, the interests of their donors, and those of their voters. At a crucial turning point for U.S. democracy and a record low point in her standing among the people who put her in office, Sinema opted to derail the Democrats' voting rights legislation. Does she have a personal attachment to the filibuster?
Arizona tends to demand and reward senators who go against their party. When John McCain voted against repeal of theAffordable Care Act, he helped the Democrats out. He was willing to throw red meat to the GOP base when it came to campaign season, such as the time he aired an ad demanding that Washington complete the danged fence. When it became clear that he would lose the GOP primary due to his criticism of Donald Trump, Jeff Flake decided to retire. Right now, Sinema's future prospects look a lot like McCain's, but on the other side of the aisle.
Sinema is siding with the GOP more often than she needs to, and according to Civiqs, she is even 20 points under water with independents. She had a net favorable rating among Republicans after she missed the commission vote. She would not last a second in a GOP primary. The Arizona Republican Party would never cast its lot with a centrist former Dem.
Sinema may see her future in lobbying if she doesn't run for office again. After a single term in office, U.S. senators don't usually go for that door. According to journalist Amy Siskind, Sinema wants to run for president in 2024 as a straight-down-the-middle candidate. It seems too strange to be true, but the rest of her behavior does the same.
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