The island nation of Tonga was devastated by last weekend's volcanic explosion. The waves took about 12 hours to reach the state and gave residents plenty of time to prepare.
The same residents would have only 10 minutes to leave their homes after a massive earthquake in the Cascadia subduction zone. Some people might not get a lot of time. A magnitude 9 earthquake can cause ground to sink below their feet.
According to a report by the Washington Geological Survey, that is what computer modeling shows. The report shows what would happen to low-lying areas on the Olympic Peninsula. The Geological Survey has released maps for the southwest Washington coast.
The report includes maps from north of Grays Harbor. The goal is to prepare the officials who are charged with community protection as well as to warn the public of potential dangers.
The big, long sword.
The model used for the report assumes the Big One hits in the subduction zone, where the Juan de Fuca tectonic plate is sliding under the North American plate. The fault would be covered in a full rip event from northern California to north of Vancouver Island.
It has been 322 years since that last happened and it will happen again.
Corina Allen is the chief hazard geologist for the Geological Survey.
There would be no sleep through this earthquake. It would take between three and six minutes for the ground to shake.
Allen said the earthquake was your warning. Get to high ground.
The region's last major earthquake, 2001's Nisqually Quake, lasted about 45 seconds.
When the earthquake happens, coastal Washington will fall in relationship to areas west of the fault. The change in sea level would flood vulnerable areas up to five feet.
Evidence from the Copalis River ghost forest shows that it has happened before. The trees that were killed by the 1700 earthquake still stand along the river and helped Brian Atwater prove that the earthquake was responsible.
Thousands of people were killed in the 1700s when a wave hit Japan. It was a mystery until Atwater made the connection.
Simulations show that the tiny town of La Push would get hit first by a wave 10 minutes after shaking started.
Allen said that depictions of a giant wave from the sea are not accurate. Think of a wall of water. It comes very quickly.
She said that it travels about the speed of a jet plane in deep water. It slows down when it gets close to land.
The coast would be hit by waves within 30 minutes. The waves are predicted to be 30 feet or higher. The majority of the Pacific coast beaches and campgrounds are under 60 feet of water.
Waves of 60 feet or higher could hit the Hoh Indian Reservation, as well as the Quinault Indian Reservation, Moclips, Pacific Beach, Iron Springs, Copalis Beach and Ocean City.
The Hoh River could be flooded to a depth of 100 feet.
A 20-foot high wave would hit Port Angeles within an hour. The US Coast Guard Air Station would be under 15 feet of water within an hour.
Waves would be a hazard for a full day after the earthquake.
The first wave might not be the biggest of all the waves, according to a message sent to coastal residents on Saturday. Flood levels can vary depending on the tides.
In Puget Sound, the fourth wave is likely to be the biggest.
She said that there was a complicated waterway in the Puget Sound. There is a lot of movement going on as this wave travels through. The wave is bouncing off of our islands.
The speed and depth of the waves make them dangerous.
According to the report, survival is unlikely for people out in the open or within conventional structures at depths greater than 6 feet. It is highly likely that you will survive on a reinforced and specially designed building.
There is a structure under construction on the Willapa Bay Indian Reservation.
Climbing to the roof of a sturdy building is a last resort for some people who are caught in the open. The report said climbing a tree is better than being in the open.
It is not just earthquakes that can cause waves. Landslides and even a meteorite strike could cause one. Saturday's forecasting was made more difficult due to the lack of modeling.
Allen said that a volcanic eruption in Tonga was not on his radar.
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