Several vaccine makers' shares are falling. As of the market close on Thursday, BioNTech stock was down 19.7%. Moderna's shares were falling. Novavax and Ocugen's stock prices were falling. The data from S&P Global Market Intelligence is the basis for all of these declines.
There are a lot of factors behind the sell-off of vaccine stocks. The demand for vaccines could be lower in the future, as investors look beyond the current surge in COVID-19 cases. The WHO's chief scientist stated on Tuesday that there's no evidence that booster doses are needed for healthy children and adolescents.
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New results from a clinical study conducted in Israel have caused BioNTech's shares to fall the most. The fourth booster dose of Comirnaty, developed by BioNTech and its partner, Pfizer, isn't effective in preventing infections by the coronaviruses omicron variant.
Moderna appeared to be negatively affected by this news. Moderna's Spikevax uses mRNA technology, which is similar to Pfizer-BioNTech's vaccine. The fourth booster dose of Spikevax won't be effective at preventing infections by omicron, according to investors.
So what?
This scenario would mean lower revenue for BioNTech and Moderna, which already have COVID-19 vaccines on the market in the U.S.
It could lead to a difficult climb for Novavax and Ocugen. Novavax's COVID-19 vaccine has recently been approved in several countries, but not in the U.S. Ocugen has the rights to market Covaxin in the U.S. and Canada, but hasn't secured authorizations in either country.
It's too early to know if vaccine demand will decline. The WHO warned this week that new coronaviruses are likely to emerge after the current wave dies. Maria Van Kerkhove, the organization's technical lead, stated that a lot of people think that omicron is the last variant. That is not the case because the virus is very intense around the world.
It's not clear if countries will agree with the WHO's take that boosters for healthy children and adolescents aren't necessary. The Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is recommended for adolescents ages 12 and up.
Israel has new data about a fourth dose of Comirnaty. At first glance, it might seem like it's really bad. The vaccine from Pfizer and BioNTech will be ready in March. Moderna is working on a vaccine that targets the omicron variant.
What now?
The most important thing for investors to keep an eye on is what happens next with the COVID-19 pandemic. The market dynamics for these companies could be changed by the spread of new coronaviruses.
Novavax has enjoyed some good news recently despite its poor stock performance. In the last few days, the company won approvals for its vaccine in France and Australia. Novavax expects to complete its filing in the near future.
Ocugen submitted for the U.S. EUA of Covaxin in children. The company is still waiting for the FDA to lift a clinical hold on the vaccine.
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