Market trends are the best indicators to look at. They show investors are willing to write checks for the industry.
Boston consulting group predicts that quantum computers will generate revenue of $5 billion to $10 billion in the next three to five years. The chemical and pharma industries are expected to be the first to use quantum computing, which will allow the accurate simulation of larger numbers of atoms and molecules, which is not possible today using classical supercomputers.
Several years ago, some investors foresaw this movement and are now making their first quantum exits.
IonQ is a U.S.-based manufacturer of ion-trapped quantum computers. The company went public in 2021, at a $2 billion valuation, after being founded in 2015. Berkeley-based Rigetti will go public through a SPAC this year, raising $450 million at a 1.5 billion valuation. The company is working on a quantum computer that can scale up to 80 qubits.
The valuations of all quantum deals are impacted by the valuation benchmarks set by IonQ and Rigetti. The IPOs show that venture capitalists could make money from the quantum industry without significant commercialization of the technology.
A lab environment is required for a quantum processor. During the emergence of classical computers, cloud access to quantum processors was not possible. quantum hardware manufacturers develop their own cloud-based operating systems. Microsoft built a large quantum OS company in the 1980s, but right now it is hard to imagine someone building a similar company.
Future winners in the quantum computing market will be determined in the next two years. The quantum industry may follow the path of collecting pieces of the stack via acquisitions.
As of October 2021. Runa Capital is an image.