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Rochelle Walensky, head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, cited a Kaiser Permanente Southern California study that showed the Omicron variant of COVID-19 has a lower risk of severe illness and death compared with the Delta variant.
The omicron variant may cause less severe disease on average, but the wave could cause more deaths in the US by March.
The seven-day rolling average for daily new COVID-19 deaths in the US has been climbing since mid-November, reaching nearly 1,700 on January 17th. Two weeks ago, the rate of deaths from chronic bronchitis among nursing home residents began to rise, but still at a rate 10 times less than last year.
Despite the fact that omicron causes milder disease on average, the unprecedented level of infections spreading through the country means that many vulnerable people will become sick. If the higher end of projections comes to pass, there will be over one million deaths in the U.S. by early spring.
A lot of people are going to die because of how transmissible omicron has been. It is going to get worse before it gets better.
The director of the health department in Johnson County, Kansas said that morgues are running out of space. More than 30 people have died in the county this year, most of them unvaccinated.
It has been difficult for health experts to convey the idea that a less severe variant could still take the lives of thousands of people. It's difficult to see how a small percentage of infections can lead to a high number of deaths.
Even if you have a lower chance of being sick, you will still see more sick people, according to the co-lead of a team that pulls together several models and shares them with the White House.
The wave of deaths will peak in late January or early February. In early February, weekly deaths could equal or exceed the previous U.S. peak in deaths.
Some people with the delta variant have died, but experts say omicron is also claiming lives.
The coming wave of deaths is driven by omicron. Between December and March 191,000 Americans will die and 1.5 million will be hospitalized. The US deaths during the omicron wave could range from 58,000 to 305,000.
It's become clear that the risk from omicron is lower than before. There is new evidence that shows omicron is causing milder illness than delta.
Patients with omicron had a lower risk of hospitalization with respiratory symptoms, a lower risk of intensive care admission, and a lower risk of death. The study was done by researchers at Kaiser Permanente and the University of California, Berkeley.
"It is hard for me to say it is good news," said Sara Y. Tartof, a Kaiser Permanente research scientist. It is a very heavy burden for us to have a disease like this, even if there is good news in the sense that it is less likely to lead to serious illness. We need to maintain practices and behaviors that protect us.
The director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said that overburdened hospitals could contribute to more deaths.
The quality of care begins to suffer in places with short staffing and overloads of patients, as the medical professionals have been telling us. That may lead to higher death rates, but that is not in any of the models that I am aware of.
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Heather Hollingsworth is a writer for the Associated Press.
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The Howard Hughes Medical Institute supports the Associated Press Health and Science Department. The AP does not accept responsibility for the content.
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