If the candidate decides to debate, they will be in a better position to say that the party rules prevent them from accepting the commission's invitation, according to a former chair of the Federal Election Commission.
He said that the RNC is trying to change the expectation of the debate to " will they or won't they"
The RNC's war on the debate commission will serve as another reminder of how expansive the former president's influence remains, even after Trump's loss in 2020. The debate commission was created by the RNC and the DNC. That was in the 1980s. The commission, which is an independent organization that only facilitates general election debates, is one of the more distrustful of traditional political institutions in today's GOP.
James Dickey, the former chair of the Texas Republican Party, said that the response to this action would be different for the average Republican voter.
He said, "We are seeing institution after institution prove they cannot be trusted." It is about time that one of them paid the penalty.
The RNC is working on a plan to amend party rules to prohibit future nominees from participating in commission-sponsored debates, which is being done by an angry former president who is expected to run again in 2024.
It is also reflecting popular sentiment within the party. Saul Anuzis, a former chair of the Michigan Republican Party, said that Republicans have long complained that debates and their media moderators are biased against them.
Scott Reed, the Republican strategist who managed Bob Dole's presidential campaign in 1996, said that the RNC did this because they were upset about the way the commission treated Trump.
He said that the debate commission has outlived its usefulness.
The days of playing ball with the media moguls are over, according to a Republican strategist.
Republicans don't expect debates to happen in 2024. The RNC may be mollified by the commission. The way debates were arranged prior to the commission was through candidate-to-candidate negotiations. Dick Wadhams, a former Colorado Republican Party chair and long-time party strategist, believes that the debate commission is not the final word.
He said that if you get Trump involved with these kinds of things, it gets out of line.
"I think that what Trump would want is cheerleaders for him to be the moderator," he said. That is also not right. There is some middle ground that needs to be reached.
With the commission still in charge of the debate process, there is no guarantee that a compromise will be reached or that the debates will go on. The debate commission was designed to institutionalize a process that had become mired in haggling between campaigns. Democrats will not allow Republicans to dictate the terms of the election in 2024, which will lead to confrontations between the parties.
Pete Giangreco, a Democratic strategist who has worked on nine presidential campaigns, said that this is part of the Trumpified Republican Party's war on institutions. They don't want everyone to vote. They want their voters to vote. They don't want everyone's vote counted.
He said this is in line with everything they are about now. They do not want institutions. They want everything to be wild.
Increased flexibility to debate or not will likely benefit Trump if he runs. His performance in the first debate against Biden was seen as a disaster by the viewers, and he was seen as the loser in the second debate. If the debates go poorly for the nominee of the party, the RNC will complain that they were unfair.
The tactic is similar to how the president used to sow distrust in the outcome of the election by claiming that it would be rigged.
Stuart Stevens, who was Romney's chief strategist in 2012 and worked against Trump in 2020, said that Trump got kicked in the ass in the debates. It is like a football team that can't pass, so they want to make it illegal to pass.
That is where the Trump wing of the GOP is today. Moderates and independents were seen as an opportunity to vote in presidential debates and general elections before Trump took over the party.
The first debate in 2020 was not held until more than 1.2 million ballots had already been cast and millions more Americans had already made up their minds, which is one of the complaints of the RNC. The GOP has only once won the popular vote in George W. Bush, and that was in the 1990s.
It may be more valuable for a populist like Trump to speak out against the debate commission.
Kirk Adams, a former Republican state House speaker from Arizona, said that Trump held his first rally of the year as a litmus test. Where do you get your news, and what organizations do you participate in, particularly in the far-right Trumpian wing?
He said that the party's "narrow-casting of the message" can fall flat in swing states where presidential elections are decided.
It is not clear how much voters will miss traditional debates. Most viewers came away from the first debate in 2020 feeling annoyed.
Michael Brodkorb, a former deputy chair of the Minnesota Republican Party, said the GOP is making a mistake by not embracing every conceivable opportunity to bring its message to voters.
He said it was insane to even entertain the possibility of Republican candidates not participating in presidential debates. I don't think you're going to do well if you're running for office and you're not shaking hands, kissing babies or going to debates.