The best way to determine the best teams in any sport is to look at the team's record. They will be near the top of the league if they have been playing well. Bill Parcells said, "You are what your record says you are."
The NHL has good teams like the Golden Knights, Hurricanes, and the Predators. There is the New York Rangers.
Don't let the names of All-Stars Adam Fox and Chris Kreider fool you. They are solid players, but they can't hide what the Rangers are up to.
The Rangers should be one of the most fearsome teams in the NHL, but their analytics suggest they are merely a wolf in sheep's clothing.
The Rangers have allowed more goals than they have scored this season, despite holding a record ten games over.500. The Rangers are the only team in the league that has a negative expected goal differential.
The Rangers are one of the worst teams in the league. MoneyPuck thinks the Rangers should be in the same ballpark as teams like the San Jose Sharks, New Jersey Devil, and Anaheim Ducks, but nowhere near them. The Ducks have only accrued 56.25 percent of their possible points. The percentage of the sharks was 53.75 percent. The percentage of the devils was 44.59 percent. The Rangers have accrued more points than any other team despite putting up similar advanced metrics.
What makes them different? Is what they have accomplished sustainable for the entire season?
The first question is very simple. The team has excelled on special teams. The Rangers rank ninth in power play percentage and third in penalty kill percentage, but it is more than that. The Rangers have created second-chance opportunities with the man advantage. The Rangers are top-eight in rebound shots for and expected rebound shots for all while being outside of the top 10 in rebound shots for the man advantage.
They have been unlucky at creating those second-chance opportunities. The Los Angeles Kings and the Jets have more scoring chances than the Rangers, but the amount of chances they have is less sustainable than the Rangers'.
The defensive metrics tell a different story for the Rangers. The Rangers rank 22nd in the NHL in expected goals against and 23rd in expected goal differential while playing 4-on-5 despite being third in the NHL in penalty kill percentage. The Rangers have relied on their netminder, Shesterkin, many times.
Shesterkin has made a name for himself as one of the league's premier goalies in just his third year in the NHL. He leads the NHL in both save percentage and goals allowed average while playing for a team that doesn't give him much to work with.
The Rangers have surrendered the second-most unblocked shot attempts in the NHL. It is indicative of a team that will be forced to spend a lot of time in their defensive zone since the pucks are consistently getting to the net and being pushed deep into the Rangers' defensive. The Rangers are one of the worst faceoff teams in the league and that makes them uneasy as they lead the division.
The Rangers are a good team. They relied heavily on their third-year goalie and power play. The plan has worked so far in the season, but is unreliable for sustained success.
The Rangers are a bubble team. They have been one of the best in the league. They have made it this far and haven't looked back, so it's only a matter of time before they get brought down to earth.
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