Expect another Omicron wave in early summer, Sage says

The scientists advise the government that there will be a new wave of Omicron cases in the early summer as people resume social activities.

The worst case scenarios for the current wave are not likely to occur, with the latest modelling suggesting a peak of less than 4,000 hospitalisations each day, according to experts on the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies.

The advice comes as ministers face pressure from some Conservative MPs to scrap all plan B restrictions in England when they are next reviewed on January 26, with officials stressing more data is needed before any decisions are made.

The lower severity of Omicron compared with Delta has led to a better outcome than anticipated.

The timing and size of the next peak cannot be predicted with any certainty, according to the team at the University of Warwick. In the scenario where plan B restrictions remain in place until the end of January and are followed by a gradual return to socializing, modelling gave projections of between 1,000 and 2,000 admissions each day.