Jack Quaid, Dylan Minnette, and David Arquette are among the stars of "Scream."
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The movie cut up $3.5 million in Thursday previews. The first three Scream movies opened before midnight previews and were just as good as every other movie. The opening weekend of Scream 4 was disappointing with an $8.2 million Friday and $18.7 million opening weekend. The film has the marketplace essentially to itself over the four-day Martin Luther King Day weekend, and I would expect any sequel to be a little front loaded.
Those who showed up last night seem to have enjoyed themselves, as reviews are mostly positive. Bad Boys for Life was a sequel that benefited from the fact that it was better than expected, and it was able to make $6.3 million on Thursday, which was enough to make it over the weekend. It is unusual for a horror movie to open in the first weekend of January, as has been the case with White Noise in 2005, but in the bigger MLK holiday weekend.
The last big horror movie we had here was in the summer of 2013, when Andy Muschietti's Mama earned $33 million over the holiday. I think M. Night Shyamalan's Glass was a superhero thriller with a villain who starred in the horror-specific Split. The movie earned $3.7 million in Thursday previews and ended up with a $46 million Fri-Mon debut in 2019. It would give Scream a terrific $43 million Fri-Mon debut, even though it is not likely to be an R-rated, comparatively violent, fan-specific part five. Over the last week or so, optimistic tracking has been offered.
Paramount was expecting a $25 million Fri-Mon debut. Even $25 million would be an over performance considering the reception to the movie. If it plays like Bad Boys for Life this weekend, it will get to $40 million. The second part of A Quiet Place will bring in over $60 million over Memorial Day weekend in 2021. If that seems overly optimistic, it is, but even a more front loaded run like Shang-Chi which made $94 million over Labor Day weekend from an $8.6 million Thursday could still make $35 million on Fri-Mon.
There is little reason to think it will crater with good reviews and solid buzz. Think The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It, Halloween Kills, and A Quiet Place part II were all released on the same day. The disdain for Scream 3 and the rejection of Scream 4 may make Scream 5 join the likes of Godzilla vs. Kong and Free Guy would have performed worse in non-vid times, but they did better during the Pandemic.
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