Since the start of the coronaviruses epidemic, vaccine stocks paved the way to wealth. In 2020, Novavax soared 2,700%. Moderna's vaccine lead has increased 1,200% over the past two years. The vaccine stock story may be over. There is still time to get involved with innovative vaccine makers. The experts think the coronaviruses will stick around after the epidemic. We need protection. We will need vaccines.
It's not possible to predict with 100% certainty which companies will succeed in the vaccine race and whether their share prices will go up. Some clues about which stocks might make you a fortune this year can be found in the programs. There are three to think about.
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1. The bio of Gritstone.
A vaccine candidate is being developed by Gritstone Bio. There are two elements that help it stand out. First, Gritstone uses self-amplifying mRNA. The vaccine can be dosed lower if it is using regular mRNA. The candidate targets the spike protein and other genes. Today's vaccines focus on the spike protein. A vaccine that targets a broader range may be better for handling variant. An early analysis shows that this may be the case.
The positive phase 1 clinical trial results for the use of the vaccine as a booster is good news. 10 healthy adults had strong neutralizing antibody and killer T cell responses after one 10-microgram dose. 120 individuals are the goal for Gritstone to enroll and move to a pivotal study. Boosters are needed by the whole world. The vaccine brands have begun to be "mixing and matching". If Gritstone succeeds, it could carve out a share in the booster market.
It is important for investors to be prepared for a bumpy ride. The shares sank after the trial news. I see this as a buying opportunity for the long-term investor who can tolerate risk. The stock is trading at its lowest share price in over a year. If the company moves closer to commercialization this year, rewards could be big.
2. Vaxart.
Vaxart has been slower than its rivals. It could be worth the wait. The company is working on a vaccine. There are many advantages to taking a pill. It's clear that many people would prefer a glass of water over a shot for a tablet. The room temperature is stable and the tablet is small. It makes transporting and storing easy and cheap. If Vaxart succeeds, we could be looking at a gamechanger. Vaxart probably won't struggle for market share.
Vaxart stands here right now. The data from the phase 2 trial of the vaccine candidate will be reported in the first quarter of this year. The candidate showed strong killer T cell responses. The candidate reduced the amount of viral in the hamsters. It could mean Vaxart's candidate reduces coronaviruses transmission. That could be big news. Vaxart is testing its candidate against the omicron variant.
Vaxart's shares have suffered recently. The stock is $3 below Wall Street's most pessimistic 12-month share price forecast. Vaxart is still risky. Moderna and Pfizer were fast, but progress is slow. Candidate failure is a possibility. The shares could move higher if Vaxart is successful.
3. Novavax is a drug.
Novavax has made a lot of money for some investors. It went up in the early days of the vaccine race. I don't think Novavax will make that kind of jump this year. Novavax is trading at only five times the forward earnings estimates. The company is in a critical situation. If it succeeds, the stock could go up in value.
About 30 countries have authorized Novavax's vaccine candidate. In December, Novavax completed its data filing to the FDA and said it would file for emergency use authorization in a month. The next big event is just around the corner. The FDA made the decision. Novavax's biggest market may not be the U.S. Pfizer and Moderna have claimed market share. A nod from the FDA is still a major accomplishment, and investors may be looking for this before buying Novavax shares.
Recent authorizations show revenue just ahead. Novavax struggled with manufacturing issues last year. There's reason to be optimistic about Novavax's earnings reports and share price this year if manufacturing goes smoothly.
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