Play.
We were robbed of seeing Justin Herbert in the playoffs.
Rex Ryan criticizes Brandon Staley for his fourth-down decisions. There is a time and a place for it.
9:00 AM.
Chaos is pure. The final game of the league year was the most dramatic. Two seasons ago, the 49ers-Seahawks game decided a division by an inch. The football game that the Raiders won in overtime was fabulously entertaining and I'm going to discuss it. The failure of a play would have ended the season for the Bolts with an average of more than 11 yards to go. It felt like each team was holding on for dear life in some moments.
The added factor made this even more dramatic. The Raiders and Bolts knew they would make it into the playoffs with a win, but the third scenario would have pushed them into the playoffs at the expense of the other team. It was fair to wonder if the teams would be upset if they settled for a tie late in overtime.
I'm here to tell you that you missed a very sticky situation if you fell asleep late Sunday night. When we got to the two-minute warning and Las Vegas was in the middle of the field, it felt like the competitiveness dam in the stadium burst. After the game, I've seen conspiracy theories about what the teams wanted to do.
It's pretty clear what happened after the game and what each team wanted to do. I'm not sure if it's a conspiracy theory or a mistake by either side, but I think it's worth breaking down. Let's look at the last offensive series for the Raiders and see what happened with the game on the line.
The two-minute warning in overtime.
The scene should be set. The Raiders crossed over into the territory of the Bolts after the third-and-8 pass from Carr to Jones. At the two-minute warning, Vegas was facing a first-and-10 from the San Diego's 45 yard line. It was not in a field goal range that was comfortable, given that a kick from this distance would have been a 63-yarder.
If the Raiders really wanted to end the game safely, this would be the perfect time to give up. They could have run out the clock in two minutes. There was no reason for the Bolts to push the envelope since a tie would get them into the playoffs. The clock ran after the Raiders ran the ball twice. They didn't care about getting the ball back.
The Raiders had a reason to try to win, according to Rich Bisaccia. If the Raiders tied the Bolts, they would be the 7th seed and travel to play the Chiefs in the first round. The Raiders were beaten by a combined score of 99-23 by the team coached by Andy Reid. I don't think they wanted to play the Chiefs again.
The Raiders would face the Bengals if they won. Their regular-season game against Cincinnati was not much better, as they lost 32-13 in late November. I don't want to disrespect the Cincinnati team, who have had a great season, but the Chiefs have a better playoff resume. The first two games of the playoffs are against the top two seeds in the conference. The Raiders had some motivation to try to win in overtime, but they didn't want to miss out.
First and second downs.
The Raiders did not kneel. They ran the ball on the first down. It didn't feel like they were running at maximum intensity in real time. There are a few factors that can affect the outcome. The "tie" scenario had been discussed ad nauseum all week and throughout Sunday. The football players were probably exhausted and playing at less than full speed. We know that the Raiders' primary goal was to not lose, which might have meant safer run calls and a focus on protecting the football while still trying to advance the ball.
Josh Jacobs lost a yard. The clock ran after the play. The Raiders did the same. It makes sense for both sides. The Raiders don't want to give the Bolts any chance at scoring since running the clock down prevents the Bolts from getting back on offense and ensures that the Raiders can do no worse than a tie. The Raiders don't want to try to get into easier field goal range and score.
Jacobs runs outside for 7 yards on second down. I don't think this is a play in which the Raiders are giving up. Jacobs has a chance to hit the C-gap for a decent gain, one in which he could have gone down at the first sign of danger without having to worry about anyone accusing the Raiders of just trying to kneel without kneeling. He cut outside and picked up some extra yards. The Bolts were playing it safe on defense, with nobody attempting to shoot a gap or get out of position and allowing a big gain.
The Raiders won four in a row to close out the season under interim coach Rich Bisaccia.
The clock ran after the play again. The Raiders have the ball on the 39-yard line. If they get stuffed or throw an incomplete pass on third down, they will be facing a field goal. If the field goal had been missed, the Raiders would have had a chance to lose and the Chargers would have had a chance to win. I don't think they would have attempted a field goal of that distance. If the clock had been stopped, they would have punted, and if it had continued to run after third down, they would have punted.
The Raiders were not going to kneel on third down. Vegas initially lined up in shotgun on third down, just as it did on second down, when it ran the ball. You do not kneel out of shotgun. Mitchell Schwartz mentioned that the Raiders were not going to throw the ball. This was going to be a run, like the one we saw on the prior down.
The timeout is over.
The Chargers called timeout. The conspiracy grows here. The easiest scenario would be for the Raiders to hand the Bolts a trip to the playoffs, but for the Bolts and their coach to call a timeout. The Raiders tried to win the game and eliminate the Bolts from the playoffs.
This theory was aided by a quote from Carr that was taken out of context. He said that the timeout changed the Raiders' strategy. That's great evidence for the conspiracy until you get to Carr's next statement. The quarterback said they knew they didn't want a tie. I wanted to make sure we were the only team moving on after this. Carr could just be talking like a competitive football player, but we've established that the Raiders were trying to get in field goal range on the prior down and had a lot of motivation to win the game.
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Did the timeout change anything for the Raiders? Not really, in terms of their situation. The timeout came with 38 seconds left in the game and five seconds left on the game clock. The timing of the next play doesn't matter if the Raiders plan is to run out the clock on third down and play for a tie. If there hadn't been a timeout, the Raiders were going to run a play with 38 seconds to go in the game or 34 seconds to go in the game. If they run and the ball stays in bounds, they can let the clock run down to zero, even if it's 38 or 34 seconds.
The Raiders were trying to get the ball back when the Chargers tried to force a play. Absolutely not. Los Angeles would have called a timeout after the second-down run if that had been the case. It did not. It had nothing to gain by getting the ball back. The Raiders don't want to try to score because the team is in a vulnerable position.
The Raiders had motivation in terms of choosing their playoff opponent, but the Chargers would have been the 6-seed regardless of whether they had tied or won. Their chances of moving into field goal range after a Raiders punt would have been low and they wouldn't have had an improvement in their win expectancy. If the Raiders had punted, they would have kneeled. They would have been happy to let the clock run down, and I bet they waited until the clock was inside of 40 seconds before calling a timeout.
The Raiders were in a passing formation, so did the Chargers panic? They were in the same situation on second down. The pictures taken a few frames later made it clear that the Chargers had a full complement of players.
The news conference made it clear that he was going to do something. The timeout was called because the team wanted to get their best defenders on the field to stop the run. They swapped Kenneth Murray for Linval Joseph because of the short-yardage run. The goal was to stop the Raiders for a short gain and force them into either attempting the most difficult field goal possible or letting the clock run out. I think the Raiders would have tried a 57-yarder with a second left if they had been stuffed on third down, but you only have to think back to the Iron Bowl of the same year to remember how long a field goal attempt could go wrong.
Brandon Staley explains why he called timeout.
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NBC will show Sunday Night Football on January 10, 2022.
Did this make the Raiders want to work harder? If you take Carr's first line in his reply and apply it to your own. If you look at what the Raiders did on second down, you probably won't read anything else. The timing of the timeout confirms that the Bolts weren't going to get the ball back and score. The Raiders would have punted if the Bolts stuffed the Raiders, with no incentive to try to win the game beyond knocking the Raiders out of the playoffs.
Again, here's where his thoughts have been taken out of context. The Raiders were talking about a tie on the sideline. I have no doubt that's true. He talked about the fact that the Raiders were running the ball early on the drive, which is true when the game clock is 35 seconds old, and the fact that the Bolts didn't call timeouts because they were running the ball. The Raiders were comfortable with the idea of a draw, and I think they were thinking about it.
Third down.
Third down changed everything. The play the Raiders chose to run was the one that had the biggest impact on the game. They lined up in the shotgun and were likely to run inside zone or something similar on third down. Carr was brought under center after the timeout, lined up in the I-formation and ran a split zone. Jacobs ran through the tackle of Asante Samuel Jr. after Kyzir White lined him up in the hole.
The field goal was turned into a 47-yard attempt by Jacobs. It's a lot easier for Daniel Carlson. If the Raiders wanted to avoid a blocked field goal being returned for a touchdown, they could have kneeled, but at that point, the chances of a missed field goal being returned for a touchdown are gone. A 57-yarder is just too risky for the Raiders to avoid the Chiefs and Tennessee in the first round of the playoffs. You could see from the final play that a 47-yarder is within Carlson's range.
Over the past five years, kickers have hit 47.1% of their field goals from 57 yards out, which is where the line of scrimmage was. If Jacobs had picked up a first down, the Raiders would have had a better chance of converting the field goal. The Raiders are up to 72.9%. Jacobs was going to gain 4 yards for the first down.
The wild-card round will feature the Raiders against the Bengals. They would have played in Kansas City if they had tied the game.
If you want to point the finger at the timeout, that's right. I think that the Raiders could have gotten a big gain if they had not taken the timeout, as they were able to pick up 23 yards on a third-and-23 draw. It's important to stop them in the backfield for no gain or loss.
I believe that the chances of the Raiders getting the first down in short yardage were better with Joseph on the field than with Murray, and that the Raiders were stopped twice in short when the Chargers took Murray off the field. Jacobs was able to stretch Samuel before turning upfield for the biggest gain of his career after taking Murray out against 11 personnel and using motion.
The Raiders out-executed the Bolts on the biggest snap of the season, but the Bolts didn't give up 10 yards because they were a terrible run defense and the Raiders were upset. I don't think his presence on the field would have saved Los Angeles' season, given how much Murray struggled during this game and has struggled since the Bolts took him in the first round in 2020.
I don't think the timeout changed Vegas' interest in trying to get into field goal range. If a field goal didn't make sense after third down, the Raiders were almost definitely going to try a field goal on fourth down, timeout or no timeout. There's a logic behind his decisions and you can disagree with them, but there's data behind them. There is no reason for the Chargers to try to get the ball back in this game, and the lack of interest in stopping the clock until the game was inside 40 seconds makes it clear that doing so wasn't a priority.
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The conspiracy theory is more entertaining than reality. If you spin the coachspeak and playerspeak one way, trust your eyes without skepticism, and subscribe to the idea that the Raiders were giving up on first and second down, you're probably going to come out. If the Raiders had not allowed the clock to run out, they would have called it a day, much to the displeasure of the fans of the other team.
What happened at the end of the game is reasonable and not controversial. The Raiders wanted to win, but they didn't want to lose anything. They got in a position in which it would have been virtually impossible to lose and then slowed things down to make sure that they were the only team with a chance to win. The only motivation was not to lose. The Raiders overwhelmed the league's worst run defense to set up a field goal in the final minute. The bear was poked with a too-cute timeout. They lost because they were overwhelmed by a more physical team. The oldest football story in the book is the one about this game.
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