The Chinese market has already won the EV race, meaning the race to secure global dominance of this new technology. This judgement seems to be premature.
The size of China's EV market is the focus of most commentary. This misses important factors that will affect how China's EV are adopted across the world.
The question is not just whether China will dominate the global EV market, but also whether the EV can help it achieve its goals. Will EV's be good for China even if China gets good at making them?
The EV is an example of an emerging industrial revolution that combines low-carbon and digital technology. The country that takes the lead in producing and using electric vehicles will be very competitive on the world stage.
Historical comparisons can help us understand what is at stake. Consider the inseparability of the rise of the US during the 20th century and its domination of the traditional car industry.
Both the US and Chinese situations are similar. Major technological change was happening within each country in parallel with a rise in their power. As the traditional car became the main form of citizen transport in the 20th century, so too will the EV in the 21st.
The US was in a unique position at the time of mass adoption of the motorcar. As a liberal capitalist country, its growing power was reassuring for other countries at the time, like the UK.
Jazz and blues music, new fashion styles, and the technicolour movies were popular in the US and exported to other countries.
The US dominated the motorcar industry during the last half of the 20th century. David Pirmann/Flickr.
The American Dream of personal car ownership is one of the reasons that there are over one billion cars on Earth. The car was owned by an entirely new industrial sector and faced no established competition.
Today, none of these factors apply to China. China is almost total in terms of political acceptability and cultural attractiveness in overseas car markets, especially those of wealthy regions like Europe.
China would need Chinese EV to compete successfully in established markets if it wanted to domination of the EV sector. These are already populated by some of the world's most advanced companies, including Toyota, General GM, and Volkswagen, as well as consumers with high expectations.
It is possible that Chinese EV could achieve success even without making much headway into markets in the West, but China's political status will make it hard there.
The future of cars.
The difference between cars and EV's matters more than this problem. The car is easy to operate. It is an engine on wheels with various additions to make it more comfortable for its driver and passengers. The EV is a completely new technology that is part of a larger, unpredictable transition in urban mobility.
Replacing cars with electric vehicles will not solve congestion or transport inequalities. The pollution created by recycling EV batteries will be a challenge for the environment. Political and cultural misgivings about China's role in creating them are more important because of the long way to evolve.
There is an interchange in China. Denys Nevozhai/Wikimedia.
One of the main reasons for the global popularity of cars is their association with individual freedom. The EV could become a vehicle for unprecedented levels of control of people's mobility as a result of their digitization.
Two hackers were able to take control of a reporter's car in a 2015 experiment. The situation could cause fears around authoritarian control and reduced privacy, further diminishing the appeal of Chinese EV's overseas.
When the motorcar emerged at the moment of discovery of a seemingly boundless energy source, concern for the effect of its waste products was largely absent.
The environmental impact of mass EV adoption will be closely scrutinized by customers and citizens worldwide because of its sustainable nature. Chinese companies hoping to enter overseas markets seem to be poorly prepared.
The most likely scenario is not Chinese EV leadership. China will be a major player in the EV if it has a large domestic market and a supportive government. This will be matched by intensifying competition with Western companies that are beginning to take the EV seriously, and that may be better placed to manage the complex social and political hurdles ahead for this new technology.
David Tyfield is a professor at Lancaster University.
The Conversation's article is a Creative Commons licensed one. The original article can be found here.
