The rate outlook for China in the year 2022.
Steven tells us about China's outlook. Thank you for that. If the conference gets out of control, there may be more lock downs in other cities. It's a rough start to the economy. We will see more regulatory cracking down for likely and then pressuring various developers. We saw Shemale yesterday and it is likely that there will be more for the year ahead. We're going to have the Winter Olympics and two meetings in March. That is restraining the manufacturing output in the beginning of the year. It's very likely that we're going to see more macro slowdown and start of this in 2022. China's economy slowed down last year. Consumption was somewhat softer. An investment. Yes, manufacturing investment. Because of the order, they remain elevated. A high tech sector with hope. Property investment is slowing down. Since the Pandemic two years ago, exports have been strong. The global aggregate demand may be as low as NIKKEI got hikes, so there may be some had for export as well. It doesn't look good for next year. Right. Many investors and economists are expecting Beijing to loosen monetary and fiscal policy. I wonder how long it will take to get through the rest of the economy. Fiscal spending was weaker than expected last year and I think fiascoes will go first. They didn't really need that much financing because they didn't use all of the quota. There are still a lot of Treasury cash in the bank account waiting to be unleashed, and if you look at the fiscal deposit data it's actually higher than usual. China and the government local governments spend that money to support the economy late last year. We expect that to accelerate early this year. The local government has a special bond quota of six trillion dollars and they're going to use it. In the first quarter. You will be spending more money for them. Fiscal is expected to do the heavy lifting on monetary. Boola said overnight that it's constrained because it's like fat when I push for a rate hike. A rate cut is probably out of the question at the moment. There is still a chance for another triple cut.
