A nurse prepares a vaccine at a hospital in Madrid, Spain.
Stephane Bancel, CEO of Moderna, said on Thursday that the efficacy of boosters against Covid-19 will likely decline over time, and that people may need a fourth shot in the fall of 2022, to increase their protection.
Bancel said that people who received their boosters in the fall of 2021 will have enough protection to survive the winter.
The effectiveness of boosters will probably decline over the course of several months, similar to what happened with the first two doses, according to Bancel. The Moderna chief was interviewed by Goldman Sachs.
Bancel said that he would be surprised when the data came in that the booster shots were holding up.
The world is currently experiencing an unprecedented surge of infections. The US is reporting an average of more than 574,000 new cases a day, according to a CNBC analysis.
The CEO of Moderna thinks there will be another round of boosters in the fall of 2022. The U.K. and South Korea have already ordered the shots.
Bancel said that people who are older or have underlying health conditions might need annual boosters for years to come.
Bancel said that they believe the virus is not going away. We have to live with it.
Moderna published preliminary data last month that showed the 50 microgram booster shot increased the antibodies that block infections. A 100 microgram booster increased the amount of those antibodies.
The protection from the original two shots has taken a blow from omicron, which is why booster shots are playing an increasingly important role in public health strategies.
Moderna and Pfizer's two-dose vaccines are only about 10% effective in preventing infections from omicron 20 weeks after the second dose, according to real-world data from the United Kingdom.
The U.K. Health Security Agency found that the booster dose is 75% effective in preventing the spread of the disease two weeks after the shot.
The study states that the effectiveness of booster shots starts to decline after about 4 weeks. Boosters were effective at preventing infections for 5 to 9 weeks and then for 10 weeks after the shot.
Albert Bourla, the CEO of Pfizer, told CNBC last month that people will probably need a fourth dose and the shot may be needed sooner than expected.
The transition from the acute crisis caused by the virus to an endemic phase where enough people have immune protection so that Covid isn't as disruptive to public life could be accelerated by omicron, according to Bancel.
He warned against predictions, noting that omicron, with its dozens of mutations, took most of the scientific community by surprise. The data shows the omicron is less severe than in the past.
Bancel said that a random mutation could change the course of the epidemic again.
Bancel said that it was impossible to predict if there would be a new mutation in a day, a week, or three months. We have to be cautious about that piece.
