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Baby names are just like fashion styles and other pop culture trends. A tug-of-war between the need to stand out in the crowd and the need to fit in with the pack is what a mathematical model developed by researchers at Carnegie Mellon University shows. Complex dynamics can be created when people observe each other in a social network. The December issue of the journal Psychological Review contains the results of the research.
Russell Golman is an associate professor in the Social and Decision Sciences Department at CMU. The field of complex systems was the one that sparked my interest.
Most models assume that a system will reach equilibrium at some point. Golman was curious about what factors could be put into the models to change behavior.
Golman wanted to use math to describe the conflicting motives of wanting to fit in and stand out. They push you in different directions, but you can want both of them.
The desire to fit in would drive behavior towards the average in the group while the desire to stand out would drive behavior away from the mode.
Golman said that they still lead to equilibrium. Golman and his team added social networks to break out of the equilibrium dilemma. Golman says that means communities, neighbors, colleagues, clubs, or other social groups.
It was surprising that social networks could make such a difference. "We modeled the dynamics with a lot of different networks, and not converging to equilibrium is actually pretty typical."
The Social Security Administration has a large database of baby names, which was used by the CMU student to test their new model. The most popular baby name would always be the most popular.
That is not what happened.
Emily says that parents may choose a similar name like Emma if they decide to forgo that name. By following this strategy, they are instilling in their new daughter a name that is socially acceptable by its similarity to the popular name but will allow her to stand out in the crowd. The number of little girls named Emily will decline while those named Emma will increase, as many parents think the same thing.
Understanding social psychology and social network structure is critical to explain the emergence of complex, unpredictable cultural trends.
Golman, R. et al., Hipsters and the cool, is a game theoretic analysis of identity expression, trends, and fads. The Psychological Review was published in 2011.
The journal has information about the psychological review.
Emily is so 2000: Research explores why popular baby names come and go.
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