Future hurricanes will roam over more of the Earth, study predicts

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The 21st century will see an expansion of hurricanes and typhoons into mid-latitude regions, which includes major cities such as New York, Boston, Beijing, and Tokyo.

The authors of the study said that tropical storms could migrate northward and southward as the planet warms due to greenhouse gas emissions. Alpha, the first tropical storm to make landfall in Portugal, and this year's Hurricane Henri, which made landfall in Connecticut, may be signs of future storms.

The risk of climate change is an important one, according to the first author, a physicist in Yale's Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences in the Faculty of Arts and Sciences.

According to the research, the 21st century's tropical cyclones will likely occur over a wider range of latitudes than has been the case for the last 3 million years.

The co-authors of the study are a professor at Yale, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, a professor at the University of Reading, and a professor at the Shirshov Institute of Oceanology.

While an increase in tropical cyclones is often cited as a sign of climate change, it's not clear how sensitive they are to the planet's average temperature. Emanuel used concepts from classical thermodynamics to predict that global warming would lead to more intense storms in the 1980's.

Other aspects of the relationship between tropical storms and the climate still lack theory. There is no consensus among scientists about whether the number of storms will increase or decrease as the climate warms.

Fedorov said that there are large uncertainties about how tropical cyclones will change in the future. Multiple lines of evidence show that we could see more tropical cyclones in mid-latitudes even if the total frequency of tropical cyclones does not increase. The finding implies higher risks due to tropical storms in Earth's warming climate.

Typically, tropical cyclones form at low latitudes that have access to warm waters from tropical oceans and away from the shearing impact of the jet streams. The rotation of the Earth causes clusters of storms to aggregate and form the storms that become tropical storms. There are other mechanisms of Hurricane formation.

The researchers say that the temperature differences between the poles and the equator will decrease as the climate warms. In the summer months, this may cause a split in the jet stream, opening a window for tropical storms to form and intensify.

Studholme, Fedorov, and their colleagues analyzed numerical simulations of warm climates from Earth's distant past, recent satellite observations, and a variety of weather and climate projections. They pointed out that simulations of warmer climates during the Pliocene and the Eocene saw tropical cyclones form and intensify at higher latitudes.

The models used for climate projections don't have enough resolution to simulation of realistic tropical cyclones, which is the main problem when making future Hurricane predictions. Several different indirect approaches are used. The underlying physics of how tropical cyclones form seem to be distorted by those methods. A number of these methods give conflicting predictions.

The new study looked at connections between Hurricane physics on scales too small to be represented in current climate models and the better-simulated dynamics of Earth's jet streams and north-south air circulation.

The Poleward expansion of tropical cyclone latitudes in warming climates is more information. Nat. There is a science called Geosci. The article was published in the journal, "Poe.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00859-1".

The journal information is Nature Geoscience.

Future hurricanes will roam over more of the Earth, study predicts, retrieved 3 January 2022.

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