The first aircraft carrier of China leaves Hong Kong.
China's military expansion has received worldwide attention.
China's leaders may not rely on those ships to regain Taiwan.
A former research professor at the US Naval War College and director of Asia engagement at Defense Priorities, Lyle Goldstein is a man of many talents.
Two Chinese carrier battle groups went to sea at the same time. The Chinese Navy's newest large helicopter carrier began its sea trials a few weeks ago.
The PLA Navy is clearly moving quickly in all respects. They may be a red herring when it comes to the "most dangerous place on the planet," as the Economist accurately described the Taiwan situation last year.
China doesn't need advanced warships to attack the island. If one simply looks at a map and sees that the medium-sized island is less than 100 miles off of China's coast, then this is easy to grasp.
Would the US need the 3rd, 5th, and 7th fleets if it invaded Cuba? Hardly. Without the support of the US Navy, the US Army and Air Force would be sufficient. Taiwan is unfortunate enough to be a very close neighbor of a rising superpower.
No warships needed.
Less than 3 miles of the South China Sea separate the Chinese city of Xiamen and Taiwan's Kinmen islands.
In the first phase of an attack, Taiwan would be destroyed by thousands of missiles, eliminating its air defenses, hitting runways, and knocking out key communications.
Hundreds of PLA Air Force bombers and attack aircraft would have free reign over the island after that.
The main purpose of these strikes is to eliminate Taiwan's small navy and air force and pave the way for the PLA to enter via parachute and helicopter.
Beijing has upgraded its airborne forces so that they now make regular parachute jumps. Chinese airborne forces are undertaking more challenging jumps, including at night, in coastal areas, and even over the water.
Chinese sources say the PLA could have 450 transport aircraft ready to deliver troops. China has put its most advanced Y-20 transport aircraft at the service of its soldiers.
The Chinese People's Liberation Army parachutes jump from a Y-8 aircraft during a Pakistan-China military exercise in Jhelum.
The PLA understands that the troops need additional firepower and mobility for which they have developed special light tanks, jeeps, and anti-tank weapons.
ThePLA's parachute troops will get crucial assistance from a parallel effort by an enormous fleet of transport and attack helicopters. In a Taiwan scenario, China has been fielding two types of transport helicopters and two types of attack helicopters.
There is a crowded production schedule and lots of imports from Russia. A Russian expert on the PLA estimated the force at 1,500 helicopters in a December analysis.
Between parachute and helicopter forces, China could possibly put over 100,000 soldiers on the island in the first 24 hours.
Chinese strategists are aware that the first assault waves will have high casualties, but they consider this a necessary cost in order to win.
Chinese Air Force special-operations troops are participating in a drill.
Chinese strategists have been working hard to solve the supply problem, just as they have been working to solve the firepower problem. Beijing's airborne forces will be resupplied by parachute-dropped pallets and heavy drones.
Most Western defense analysts seem to like China's amphibious tank force. Beijing's strategists know that amphibious assault against dug-in defenders with slow and highly visible assault vehicles is risky.
The main forces will be infantry in small, light craft that can be built cheaply. This approach is in line with cutting-edge thinking.
Two US strategists wrote to the US Marine Corps that smaller ground units and capabilities dispersed over wide areas can achieve outsized effects.
A cadet demonstrates an amphibious all-terrain vehicle at the PLA's Armored Forces Engineering Academy.
The PLA has taken great interest in operations with light craft in recent years.
The small size of these vessels allows them to be carried and launched by almost any civilian vessel, including ships of China's enormous fishing fleet.
There are inflatable rafts with outboard engines, small landing craft, and more high- performance vessels. The details of a new 16-meter assault boat for ground forces were revealed in January 2020 by a Chinese shipbuilding magazine.
The entire Taiwan coastline could be accessed in four or five hours by Chinese assault teams in such a craft.
Normal force vs. extraordinary force.
Chinese soldiers are at the King Abdullah II Special Operations Training Center in Amman.
A large force of highly trained assault troops, special forces, and warships are used in the assault vectors outlined above.
During the war on terror, Beijing invested heavily in the capabilities of elite formations in the Western militaries.
A few years ago, a reporter for the Atlantic looked at the intensity of China's development of these forces during a counterterrorism competition. The PRC teams did a great job.
If you watch the Chinese military news regularly, you will see that the soldiers are prepared for mountain operations, night operations, and urban combat.
These troops would cause havoc in Taiwan's rear areas, closing roads and attacking headquarters, but they would also secure important objectives, including high ground, airfields, and small ports.
Special-forces teams may have already secured the landing areas when Chinese forces come to Taiwan.
The PLA is fond of special operations. Sun Tzu, a Chinese strategist, wrote over 2,000 years ago that "use the normal force to engage; use the extraordinary force to win."
A Taiwanese military exercise is preparing for an amphibious landing by Chinese forces.
American strategists prefer to count how many amphibious tanks could be put in the water since the massive ships transporting those tanks could potentially be targeted by American torpedoes and missiles.
The fact that Taiwan is mostly composed of mountains and urban areas makes the models that seek a "technological silver bullet" to defeat a Chinese invasion useless. This will be a good old infantry fight.
It should be noted that amphibious tanks have never been a decisive factor in beach assaults. Air power was decisive in those campaigns, and China has that in spades.
The infantry fight can be affected by airpower, but soldier motivation is also important. China seems to have an advantage over Taiwan in that respect.
American strategists should get real about this scenario with a better understanding of the local geography and current Chinese military doctrine.
If favorable geography, highly trained and motivated special forces, and the obvious first-mover advantage, are combined, Beijing will be near-total mastery in a Taiwan scenario.
Defense Priorities has a director of Asia Engagement. He was a research professor at the US Naval War College. He was awarded the Superior Civilian Service Medal for founding and leading the China Maritime Studies Institute.
Business Insider has an original article.
